96S INVEST

[stormcruisin]

96S INVEST 140704 1200 8.0S 83.0E SHEM 15

[stormcruisin]

25 knots.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9S 82.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING FEEDING IN FROM
THE SOUTHERN FLANK WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER; A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE WEAK
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[jaguarjace]

96S Storm Floater

[stormcruisin]

lol posted at the same time

[jaguarjace]

96S INVEST 140706 0000 10.1S 82.6E SHEM 25 1004


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 83.7E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3S 82.9E, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTANT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051411Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT, WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. AN OLDER 050419Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED UNDER THE CONVECTION WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS, 20 TO 25 KNOTS, NEAR THE CORE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
NUMERIC MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND FAIR ORGANIZATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[jaguarjace]

96S INVEST 140706 1200 9.0S 82.6E SHEM 25 1005


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3S
82.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 82.8E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEMINISHING
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 060931Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE IS LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT VWS AND LACK OF CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[jaguarjace]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 82.8E,
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHALLOWED AND HAS SHEARED FROM ITS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, THE LLCC HAS UNRAVELED AND
BECOME ILL-DEFINED. THIS AREA IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[euro6208]

96S INVEST 140709 1200 10.9S 69.5E SHEM 15 1010