WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow. Maybe this would be our next typhoon. This will surely rack up the WPac ACE.


And wait. This topic has 5 pages already. Wow. Again.

[euro6208]

Wow so latest JTWC warning has winds close to 50 knots, stronger than the first. I'm liking this weather...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 102254
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
854 AM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W MOVING TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN...AND FOR THE MARIANAS WATERS OUT TO 40 NM. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.1 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 315 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
310 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER GUAM AROUND NOON
SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT DEVIATION FROM
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING 09W NEAR ONE OF THE OTHER MARIANA
ISLANDS.

&&

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-110700-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
854 AM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE DISASTER PLAN AND BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS OR BRING THEM
INSIDE. CHECK YOUR GENERATOR AND MAKE SURE YOU HAVE FUEL. LISTEN
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS ARE PREDICTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 MPH AS 09W PASSES
AROUND MID-DAY SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE STORM WILL DETERMINE
WHICH ISLANDS GET TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AS THE STORM PASSES ON SATURDAY. BRIEF
COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS LIKELY AS 09W PASSES ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE STORM. LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 PM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

ZIOBRO/GUARD

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 35kts but let's see what JMA does if it upgrades or not.

09W NINE 140711 0000 12.0N 148.3E WPAC 35 996

[ManilaTC]

09W NINE 140711 0000 12.0N 148.3E WPAC 35 996

Best Track now giving 09W Tropical Storm status...
We might have TS Rammasun very soon...

Name reminds me of an anime on tv... Ranma 1/2!
Ranma becomes a feisty lady once hot water is poured on him...

And we do have hot water across the Philippine Sea

[euro6208]

Very favorable environment and latest emanuel maximum potential intensity for pressure and wind speed is 860mb/160 knots!

[mrbagyo]

Euro must be seeing some streaking cirrus clouds by now.

[euro6208]

00z Best Track up to 35kts but let's see what JMA does if it upgrades or not.

09W NINE 140711 0000 12.0N 148.3E WPAC 35 996

With this upgrade, the islands will be under a tropical storm warning...

Right now it doesn't look bad. Literally no wind and rain but it is cloudy, really dark clouds ...

Update:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[euro6208]

18Z big change. After exiting Guam, Rammasun treks over the Philippine Sea on a southwest track and landfall over luzon...

[dexterlabio]

^Big change indeed. Even the ensemble tracks went south than the previous runs. Let's see what the Euro has this time...

[cycloneye]

Here is the 0300z warning and tracks towards Luzon as a 110kt Typhoon.

[cycloneye]

JMA remains as TD.

TD
Issued at 01:25 UTC, 11 July 2014
<Analyses at 11/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N12°00'(12.0°)
E148°20'(148.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 12/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°40'(12.7°)
E144°50'(144.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[dexterlabio]

ECMWF still doesn't have anything at all. Just a low with nothing in significance...but there might be something in the initialization though.. Could it be because of this storm's small and compact circulation? Let's wait and see...

[stormcruisin]

Guam - Governor Calvo has declared Guam in Condition of Readiness 3 as Tropical Depression 9W approaches the island.

NWS: SEE Satellite Loop of approaching Tropical Depression 9W HERE>>> http://goo.gl/Maq2Vv http://goo.gl/Maq2Vv

READ the release from GHS/OCD below:

JIC News Release #1

Make Preparations; Governor Declares Guam in COR3

July 11, 2014 (9AM ChST)

There's a storm that, at this point, is heading our way.
The governor wants Guamaniansto prepare, even if it turns out the storm doesn't affect us too much. Mother Nature is unpredictable and can often surprise us. So, the governor has declared Guam in Condition of Readiness (COR) 3.

To make sure residents get correct information via the media, the governor also activated the Joint Information Center (JIC).

Condition of Readiness 3 means that damaging winds are possible within 48 hours.

This can be for either tropical storms or typhoons. In this case, as of now, we’re looking at the possibility of a tropical storm. ‘Damaging winds’ means winds capable of picking up objects that can hit you or your property. This kind of wind, along with the rain, can cause flooding, make debris fly, and topple over small trees.

The government of Guam is making preparations.

It's important for every household to make preparations as well. This is what you should do to prepare. Even if this turns out to be a banana storm, it is far better to be safe and prepared than sorry:

1. Gas your car and get fuel for your generators
2. Clean your yard and the outside of your house of anything that could fly in high winds
3. Stock up on non-perishable foods (like can goods) and drinking water
4. Get batteries for flashlights and batter-operated radios. It is important that you have a battery-operated radio
5. Get your shutters ready. You may need to put them up based on more information we will have this afternoon about this potential storm

We remind Guamanians of these tips to stay safe in these weather conditions:

- Drive slower than the posted speed limits; puddles can be misleading
- Do not go out on a boat; and definitely do not go swimming, surfing, or fishing, or otherwise get in the water
- Keep listening to the radio for information.
Our office will put out the latest information through these releases, and through our website


http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/index. ... Itemid=156


Tropical Storm Warning, under COR 3. Rota, Tinian and Saipan remain under a Tropical Storm Watch.
What does this mean?
Tropical Storm Warning means sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are expected within 24 hours or are occurring from a tropical storm or a typhoon.
Tropical Storm Watch means sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within 48 hours from a tropical storm or typhoon.
Guam remains under COR 3 which means damaging winds (>= 39 mph) are possible within 48 hours. COR 2 means damaging winds are expected within 24 hours. COR 1 would mean damaging are expected within 12 hours or are occurring.

[euro6208]

Governor has now deckared condition of readiness 2 which means damaging wings and rains within the next 24 hours

[cycloneye]

Here is the JTWC 0300z warning Prognostic discussion.

WDPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (NINE) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AS
THE SYSTEM FORMED NEW BANDS THAT WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT REMAINS OBSCURED BY CLOUD COVER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A NOTCH
FEATURE ON A 102339Z METOP-B MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE
DEEPENED CONVECTION AND IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL
OUTFLOW: ONE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WESTWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL INDUCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES AT 05-10
KNOTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STR ANCHORED TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN PARA 2 ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. BY TAU 36, THE CYCLONE WILL BE A
FULL-FLEDGED TYPHOON AND WILL REACH 85 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 09W WILL DRIFT INTO AN EVEN WARMER POOL OF
WATER (32 DEGREES CELSIUS) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THIS, IN ADDITION
TO SUSTAINED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL
BE A VERY STRONG TYPHOON AT 110 KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//

[euro6208]

Driving around before work and it is raining very very hard right now, roads are flooded .

[euro6208]

000
FPMY70 PGUM 110217
NOWMY

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1217 PM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014

GUZ001-PMZ151-110500-
GUAM-GUAM WATERS-
1217 PM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014

.NOW...
THROUGH 300 PM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE
ISLAND OF GUAM. IN ADDITION TO THIS...AN OUTER RAINBAND OF TROPCAL
STORM 09W WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ISLAND BETWEEN 130 PM AND 300 PM.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE
ISLAND OF GUAM AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. VISIBILITY WILL DROP
BELOW ONE NAUTICAL MILE AT TIMES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING...WATCH FOR LOW VISIBILITIES AND PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR
THUNDER...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. BOATERS SHOULD STAY IN PORT UNTIL
THE HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE PASSED.

$$

ZIOBRO

[stormcruisin]

[euro6208]

Expected to intensify to near typhoon strength before direct hit. News and radio doing a great job on this tropical storm so far.