WPAC: INVEST 97W

[jaguarjace]

97W INVEST 140720 1200 6.0N 175.0E WPAC 15 1010


Another system developing down the road.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Well that's an EPIC FAIL. That was meant to go in the 96W Thread. Sorry guys.

[euro6208]

EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE.
LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SURFACE WINDS NEAR AND
SURROUNDING ITS CENTER HAVE DECREASED TO GENTLE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. WEAKER CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO STAY
AT ISOLATED LEVELS ACROSS BOTH POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THIS EVENING.
FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS TO BEYOND THE
DATE LINE. STRONGER CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODIC CONVECTION NEAR MAJURO THRU TUESDAY. AS THE DISTURBANCE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...IT
WILL DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG AND PROLONG UNSTABLE WEATHER
OVER ALL THREE FORECAST POINTS UNTIL MIDWEEK. AFTERWARD...MUCH
WEAKER SOUTHEAST TRADES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE DRIER
CONDITIONS FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION.

[euro6208]

Poof...

[euro6208]

Although lacking any organization and convection, GFS still developing this in it's latest run.

Develops a struggling Tropical Depression by next week then rapidly intensifies to a typhoon at 155E or east of Saipan. Makes a direct hit to the CNMI as a deepening Category 2 typhoon. Further deepens to 940's mb typhoon where it impacts the Japanese Islands...

[euro6208]

hmm it has not yet recovered despite DMAX and system is very disorganized with almost no convection at all...

I won't be surprised if this gets deactivated. Maybe the storm that models develop into a future typhoon that hits the Marianas will get renumbered...