CPAC: INVEST 91C

[cycloneye]

EP, 92, 2014072300, , BEST, 0, 85N, 1355W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2014072306, , BEST, 0, 87N, 1363W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2014072312, , BEST, 0, 89N, 1372W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2014072318, , BEST, 0, 90N, 1380W, 20, 1009, DB


Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a surface trough
located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of
Hawaii. Further development of this system is possible during
the next few days while it moves westward into the central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Kingarabian]

MJO about to kick in soon.

[hurricanes1234]

Impressive! It might be time for the annual July train of systems near the ITCZ.

[Yellow Evan]

Hmm, looks like we could see Ana sooner than I thought.

[Yellow Evan]

A surface trough of low pressure located about 1300 miles
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized
shower activity. Development of this system is possible during
the next few days while it moves westward into the central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922014 07/24/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 40 43 42 38 32 27 23 22
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 40 43 42 38 32 27 23 22
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 26 25 23 21 20 18
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 10 5 7 6 16 17 21 23 28 28
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 -3 -2 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 16 355 5 6 350 321 241 253 252 251 246 239 235
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 148 146 139 135 132 132 129 128 127 125
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 72 76 76 75 74 70 60 55 52 51 48 45 44
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 8
850 MB ENV VOR 38 50 48 45 42 33 26 26 15 14 12 27 33
200 MB DIV 48 70 55 59 48 59 55 44 8 3 24 25 24
700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 0 1 1 0 -2
LAND (KM) 1985 1880 1776 1678 1581 1405 1248 1108 962 810 677 548 453
LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.2 11.9 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.4
LONG(DEG W) 139.5 140.5 141.5 142.4 143.3 144.9 146.2 147.3 148.5 149.8 151.0 152.3 153.4
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 35 38 36 33 29 21 8 4 7 7 3 5 5

Has about 3 days to develop, much like 91E.

[cycloneye]

A surface trough located about 1150 miles east-southeast of the
Big Island of Hawaii has moved into the central Pacific basin.
Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook from the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center for more details.

[cycloneye]

Is now 91C as it moved into the CPAC basin.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU JUL 24 2014

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A surface trough of low pressure located about 1100 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii produced thunderstorms showing a limited, asymmetrical organization. This system may develop during the next few days as it moves further westward across the central Pacific.* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 30 percent.


CP, 91, 2014072412, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1416W, 20, 1009, DB

[Yellow Evan]

1. A disorganized area of low pressure located about 975 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce widely scattered thunderstorms across a broad area. This system may develop during the next few days as it moves westward across the central Pacific.* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU JUL 24 2014

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A disorganized area of low pressure located about 975 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce widely scattered thunderstorms across a broad area. This system may develop during the next few days as it moves westward across the central Pacific.* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 30 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday afternoon.

[Yellow Evan]

1. A disorganized area of low pressure located about 850 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continued to produce widely scattered thunderstorms across a broad area. This system may develop during the next few days as it moves westward across the central Pacific.* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 30 percent.

[Steve820]

I think this might be Ana but I'm somewhat hoping that won't happen so the name could wait till next year, when we'll have an Ana in the Atlantic and an Ana in the CPac in the same year! That would be an awesome occurrence.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI JUL 25 2014

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A disorganized area of low pressure located about 750 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continued to produce widely scattered thunderstorms across a broad area. The center was relocated based on new scatterometer data which showed a better defined circulation southwest of the previous center. This system may develop during the next few days as it moves westward across the central Pacific.* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated surface trough located about 720 miles south southeast of South Point on the Big Island of Hawaii have decreased in coverage tonight. Environmental conditions also appear to be becoming less conducive for development of this system as it continues to move westward at about 10 mph this weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent.

[hurricanes1234]

Seems like this will bust.

[Yellow Evan]

Seems like this will bust.

GFS shows it still.

[Yellow Evan]

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. An elongated surface trough located about 700 miles south southeast of South Point on the Big Island of Hawaii has been completely devoid of thunderstorms during the past few hours. Environmental conditions also appear to be becoming less conducive for development of this system as it continues to move westward at about 10 mph this weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized around a low located about 800 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii. Environmental conditions may be somewhat conducive for development of this system as it continues to move westward at about 15 mph during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

2. An organized area showers and thunderstorms is located about 800 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii. Environmental conditions may be somewhat conducive for development of this system as it continues to move westward at about 15 mph during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

2. A elongated area of showers and thunderstorms is located about 800 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii. Environmental conditions may be somewhat conducive for development of this system as it continues to move westward at about 10 mph during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 30 percent.