ATL: BERTHA - Models

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StarmanHDB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#201 Postby StarmanHDB » Wed Jul 30, 2014 6:37 pm

Blown Away wrote:The global model re curvature occurs 2-3 degrees farther west from 12z to 18z... Keeps inching west with each run.


How does 93L's western trend bode in terms of development and intensity?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#202 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jul 30, 2014 6:38 pm

StarmanHDB wrote:
Blown Away wrote:The global model re curvature occurs 2-3 degrees farther west from 12z to 18z... Keeps inching west with each run.


How does 93L's western trend bode in terms of development and intensity?


Generally very weak...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#203 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 30, 2014 7:41 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 310034
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0034 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932014) 20140731 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140731 0000 140731 1200 140801 0000 140801 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 47.9W 11.4N 50.9W 12.5N 53.6W 13.7N 56.7W
BAMD 10.5N 47.9W 11.0N 50.0W 11.7N 52.0W 12.6N 53.9W
BAMM 10.5N 47.9W 11.3N 50.1W 12.3N 52.2W 13.5N 54.4W
LBAR 10.5N 47.9W 11.0N 50.7W 11.7N 53.7W 12.5N 56.7W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 37KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 37KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140802 0000 140803 0000 140804 0000 140805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 59.7W 18.6N 66.5W 21.9N 72.8W 24.9N 76.4W
BAMD 13.8N 55.9W 16.6N 60.3W 19.5N 65.1W 22.0N 69.1W
BAMM 14.8N 56.7W 17.9N 61.7W 21.1N 66.7W 24.1N 70.1W
LBAR 13.6N 59.8W 17.2N 65.5W 22.4N 70.1W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 46KTS 51KTS 54KTS 56KTS
DSHP 46KTS 51KTS 54KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 47.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 44.7W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 41.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#204 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 30, 2014 8:04 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#205 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jul 30, 2014 8:44 pm

00z models recurving 93L now pretty quickly in the Bahamas.
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#206 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Jul 30, 2014 8:52 pm

Models have been fairly persistent on troughing over the east coast of North America leaving a huge window for 93L to recurve after its dance with the the Lesser Antilles.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#207 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jul 30, 2014 9:26 pm

Image
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#208 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 30, 2014 9:33 pm

A closer look at the reliable consensus TVCA/TVCN model.

Image
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#209 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 30, 2014 10:56 pm

00z GFS kills it before it reaches the islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#210 Postby ronjon » Thu Jul 31, 2014 4:45 am

Both 00z HWRF and GFDL now bring 93L to CAT 1 status in the SW Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#211 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Thu Jul 31, 2014 4:48 am

06z guidance

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#212 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 31, 2014 6:11 am

Image
Image
06z... Most going Cane now!!

Image
06z...

Image
06z...

Image
Coming to Luis in PR... Interesting the NWS 72 hour position and the projected track afterwards is quite a bit SW of the guidance...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#213 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 31, 2014 7:48 am

785
WHXX01 KWBC 311237
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1237 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932014) 20140731 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140731 1200 140801 0000 140801 1200 140802 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 51.4W 12.2N 54.3W 13.4N 57.6W 15.2N 61.0W
BAMD 11.0N 51.4W 11.4N 53.6W 12.0N 55.7W 13.1N 57.9W
BAMM 11.0N 51.4W 11.8N 53.8W 12.6N 56.4W 13.8N 59.0W
LBAR 11.0N 51.4W 11.8N 54.2W 12.6N 57.2W 13.7N 60.5W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140802 1200 140803 1200 140804 1200 140805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 64.7W 20.7N 71.6W 24.1N 76.7W 27.4N 78.1W
BAMD 14.5N 60.3W 17.8N 65.6W 20.9N 70.4W 22.9N 73.9W
BAMM 15.3N 61.8W 18.5N 67.9W 21.8N 73.2W 24.4N 76.3W
LBAR 15.0N 63.8W 19.2N 69.6W 25.5N 73.5W 28.9N 73.8W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 51.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 47.9W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 44.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Looks like a west shift for BAM's...
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#214 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:26 am

Yeah pretty decent shift with the BAMD and BAMM but likely they are keeping the system shallow and weak. Saved graphic below:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#215 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:27 am

Image
12z... Model's shifting West, maybe due to shallow system/increased forward speed... Old reliable Hispaniola coming into play now...

Image
12z... Nearly all models moving towards hurricane...

Image
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#216 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:32 am

^ as if this cluster of clouds didn't have enough problems...Modeling tossing the DR in its future as well...
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#217 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:38 am

Split camp with the GFS ensembles in the Bahamas likely due to how strong the system gets (weak=more west, strong= more east)

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#218 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:00 am

Image

Not every run, but some models have shown the steering currents collapsing in the Bahamas and then those same models recurve next run... Seems to be alot of uncertainty in the Bahamas area...
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#219 Postby Nimbus » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:43 am

Into the Caribbean just north of Barbados then exiting north near Puerto Rico.

Only the deep layer BAM hints at a miss with the forecast trough.
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#220 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:06 pm

Significant shift west with the 12Z GEM which is the only model I really see that is bullish with this system now (but it is the GEM afterall!). Following the TVCN model closely:

Recurving just east of the Bahamas:
Image

Corresponding 00Z position:
Image
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