ATL: BERTHA - Advisories

[arlwx]

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
800 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

...BERTHA MOVING OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 69.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR LATITUDE 18.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA SHOULD MOVE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT...AND ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY MONDAY. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE IN ELEVATED AREAS IN
PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL
AS THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

...BERTHA REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 69.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
BERTHA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TONIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH SOME
STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL
AS THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO THROUGH
TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

While there has been some increase in the coverage of cold
convective tops associated with Bertha this evening, the cyclone
remains disorganized. Surface observations from the Dominican
Republic have not definitively shown a closed circulation, and it is
possible that what surface circulation there was has been disrupted
by land interaction. We will maintain Bertha as a tropical cyclone
for now, but advisories could be discontinued on Sunday if the
organization of the system does not improve. The initial intensity
remains 40 kt based on rain-adjusted SFMR winds reported by the Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft well east of the center prior to 00
UTC.

The initial motion estimate of 310/19 is based on a blend of the
latest satellite imagery and continuity. The synoptic reasoning
for the track forecast remains unchanged. Bertha will continue
moving northwestward along the southwestern periphery of the
subtropical ridge tonight and Sunday. Then the cyclone will
turn northward on Monday between the ridge and a deep-layer trough
over the southeastern United States, followed by a northeastward
acceleration into the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model
guidance remains in good agreement on this general scenario.
However, the models have shifted to the left this cycle at 48 hours
and beyond, showing a more gradual recurvature. The NHC track
through 36 hours is largely an update of the previous one. After
that time, the official forecast has been adjusted to the left of
the previous one, but now lies along the right side of the guidance
envelope.

There continue to be three possible scenarios for the intensity of
Bertha. The official forecast assumes that Bertha will survive its
current lack of structure, land interaction, shear, and dry air
entrainment long enough to reach a more favorable environment in
24-36 hours. At that point, the environment would likely allow for
intensification until extratropical transition begins after 96
hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one
and calls for Bertha to become a hurricane in 4 days, and is close
to the latest IVCN intensity consensus. An alternate scenario is
that Bertha degenerates to a tropical wave in the next 12 to 24
hours, with possible regeneration later when the system reaches the
more favorable environment. A third possibility involves a trough of
low pressure currently situated over the central and northwestern
Bahamas. The 1200 UTC runs of the UKMET and NAVGEM forecast the
low to absorb Bertha in 48 hours or so, while the latest GFS and
ECMWF runs keep this system weaker and maintain Bertha through the
forecast period. Later model runs should help refine the likelihood
of this scenario.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 19.5N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 21.5N 71.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 24.1N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 27.2N 74.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 30.4N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 36.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 41.0N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 45.0N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[supercane4867]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM AST SUN AUG 03 2014

...BERTHA MOVING AWAY FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND TOWARD THE
TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL A THREAT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 71.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC THIS MORNING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE WARNING AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY LATE
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH
MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM AST SUN AUG 03 2014

The overall convective pattern of Bertha has changed little since
the previous advisory. The center position has been difficult to
determine and is based on a blend of the past motion and available
reconissance data. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance was able to
close off an 850 mb center around 0200 UTC, and a dropsonde released
to the southeast of the alleged center indicated a surface wind of
210 degrees at 21 kt, which implies a west wind of at least 10
kt somewhere in the southern quadrant. These data are the basis
for keeping Bertha as a tropical cyclone for this advisory. Also
during the outbound leg, the aircraft found rain-contaminated SFMR
surface winds of 53, 57, and 48 kt in the southeastern quadrant.
After adjusting those wind speeds due to rain enhancement yields a
consecutive 3-bin average speed of about 42 kt, which justifies
maintaining the intensity at 40 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 310/18 kt. The NHC model guidance
remains in excellent agreement with Bertha gradually moving
northward and then northeastward around the periphery of a
deep-layer subtropical ridge located along 28N latitude and ahead
of an broad mid-level trough that is located over the eastern
United States through 72 hours. After that, the cyclone is expected
to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate
northeastward and east-northeastward as it becomes extratropical or
merges with a frontal system in 96-120 hours. The NHC track forecast
is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, only
slightly faster, and follows the trend of the consensus model TVCA.

It is possible that Bertha could briefly open up into a wave this
morning due to strong northwesterly shear of at least 25 kt.
However, the environment ahead of the cyclone for about the next 48
hours is expected to become increasingly more conducive for at
least gradual strengthening to occur, especially at 36-48 hours when
the vertical shear is expected to decrease to near 10 kt while SSTs
and mid-level moisture reach their peak. By 96 hours, extratropical
transition over sub-23C SSTs and/or merger with a frontal system is
expected. The ECMWF indicates frontal merger in about 72 hours, but
this appears be premature based on other available model guidance
and input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC). The new NHC
intensity forecast is consistent with the previous advisory, which
now calls for Bertha to reach hurricane strength by 72 hours.
However, this could occur sooner than indicated given that the most
favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions become juxtaposed by 48
hours or so. Intensity forecasts during the extratropical phase are
based on input from OPC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 20.9N 71.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 22.8N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 25.6N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 28.8N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 32.0N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 37.8N 66.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 42.5N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0600Z 46.0N 47.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[arlwx]

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014

...BERTHA NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL A THREAT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 71.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL
MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND MOVE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE WARNING AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATER
TODAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH
MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014

...BERTHA MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 72.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA
WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...
AND PASS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.




TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014

Visible satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern of Bertha is
becoming a little better organized, with some banding features
apparent over the eastern portion of the system. Also, reports
from a hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the low-level
circulation is becoming better defined. The current intensity
estimate is held at 40 kt, in agreement with SFMR-observed surface
winds from the aircraft well to the northeast of the estimated
center.

The initial motion estimate continues to be northwestward, or
320/18 kt. The track forecast and reasoning are mostly unchanged
from the previous advisory. Over the next couple of days, Bertha
should move around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric
anticyclone at a slightly slower forward speed. Thereafter, the
tropical cyclone is likely to turn northeastward and
east-northeastward while accelerating as it moves into the
mid-latitude westerlies. The current official forecast is fairly
close to the latest multi-model consensus.

Cirrus motions and animation of water vapor imagery show that the
shear over Bertha has begun to relax a little, and this, along with
an increase in mid-level moisture, should allow for some
strengthening. In the latter part of the forecast period,
west-southwesterly shear increases significantly, but by that time
it is anticipated that Bertha will have become an extratropical
storm over the North Atlantic. The official wind speed forecast is
the same as in the previous advisory, and quite similar to the
latest intensity model consensus, ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 22.2N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 24.3N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 27.4N 74.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 30.7N 73.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 33.7N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 39.5N 64.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 44.0N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1200Z 47.5N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014

...BERTHA MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 72.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA
WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...
AND PASS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH
MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014

After Bertha's cloud pattern became a little better organized
earlier today, there has been little change in its overall
appearance over the past several hours. There are limited banding
features over the eastern semicircle of the circulation, and the
deep convection is a little ragged-looking. The upper-level outflow
is becoming a little better defined, but there is still some
northwesterly shear over the system. The current intensity is kept
at 40 kt based on earlier observations from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft. The numerical guidance has become a little less bullish
on future strengthening, but the Decay-SHIPS model still calls for
the cyclone to become a hurricane in 60-72 hours, as does the
official forecast. It should be noted, however, that the intensity
model consensus no longer predicts Bertha to become a hurricane.

Based on an earlier center fix from the aircraft, the working best
track has been adjusted a little to the east of the previous
estimates. The center location is not obvious on the latest
visible imagery, and the initial motion estimate is a somewhat
uncertain 325/16 kt. The track forecast for the next 48 hours or
so is slightly complicated by a low- to mid-level disturbance that
is currently near Florida. The U.K. Met. Office global model
forecast shows Bertha interacting with this disturbance and
moving a little closer to the United States east coast than earlier
runs. Other global models such as the GFS do not show as much
interaction and keep Bertha farther offshore. The new official
track forecast has been nudged a little to the left of the previous
one and is very close to a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF
solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 23.3N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 25.8N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 29.0N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 32.6N 73.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 35.7N 71.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 40.5N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 46.0N 53.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1800Z 50.0N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014

Recent satellite and aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that the
circulation of Bertha has become much better defined this evening.
The tropical cyclone has also quickly strengthened as convection
has increased and become organized in a band around the eastern
portion of the circulation. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
has measured peak believable SFMR winds of around 55 kt. Although
the flight-level winds would support a little lower initial
intensity, a recent dropsonde measured winds in the lowest 150
meters that also supports an initial wind speed of 55 kt. The
aircraft data also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to
around 1007 mb.

The strong northwesterly vertical wind shear that has been affecting
Bertha is forecast to decrease further during the next 24 hours.
This should allow for additional strengthening, and the updated NHC
intensity forecast calls for Bertha to become a hurricane in a day
or so. In 36 to 48 hours, strong west-southwesterly upper-level
winds are forecast to cause a significant increase in vertical
shear. The shear, along with decreasing sea surface temperatures,
should cause some weakening before Bertha becomes an extratropical
low over the North Atlantic in three to four days.

Bertha is moving north-northwest at 15 kt. The cyclone should turn
northward and then north-northeastward during the next day or so
while it moves between a subtropical high to its east and a mid- to
upper-level trough over the eastern United States. In a couple of
days, Bertha is expected to accelerate northeastward and then turn
east-northeastward when it moves into the mid-latitude westerlies.
The model guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario
through 72 hours, and the new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory during that time. There is increasing spread in
the track guidance after three days with the ECMWF and UKMET models
predicting a much faster motion over the North Atlantic than the
latest GFS. The four- and five-day forecast positions are close to
the model consensus and guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 24.9N 73.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 27.3N 73.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 30.8N 73.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 34.1N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 36.9N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 42.2N 59.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 47.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z 49.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[arlwx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014

...BERTHA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AWAY FROM
THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 73.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
BAHAMAS TODAY AND PASS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND
BERMUDA ON TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

DATA FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$

[arlwx]

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014

Convection has been pulsing near the center, but the overall
convective cloud pattern of Bertha has changed little since the
previous advisory due to moderate northwesterly wind shear. Earlier
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance wind data around 0500 UTC supported
a 55-kt intensity, especially since the pressure had decreased 3 mb
down to 1004 mb. However, a NOAA research aircraft has just started
its investigation of the cyclone, and surface wind data support
increasing the intensity to 60 kt along with a central pressure
fall to about 999 mb.

Bertha is now moving northward or 350/14 kt. There remains no
significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The
latest NHC model guidance remains tightly clustered and in
excellent agreement on Bertha continuing to move around the western
periphery of the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge for the next 36
hours or so, followed by a northeastward acceleration into the
mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a deep-layer trough and frontal
system currently approaching the U.S. east coast. The official
forecast track is just a tad to the left of the previous advisory,
and is close to the consensus model TVCA. The 72-, 96-, and 120-hour
positions are based on a blend of input from the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center. On the forecast track, Bertha is expected to
pass about midway between the U.S. coast and Bermuda on Tuesday.

The northwesterly vertical wind shear that has been plaguing Bertha
for the past few days is now decreasing and is gradually backing
around to a southwesterly direction. In fact, the global models
indicate that Bertha will move underneath a 200 mb ridge axis in
18-24 hours, at which time we should see the cyclone reach hurricane
status. That intensity should be short-lived since the shear is
forecast to increase to more than 30 kt by 48 hours and beyond,
which should induce at least steady weakening. The intensity,
however, has been held higher than normal due to Bertha's expected
transition to an extratropical cyclone with possible baroclinic
energy keeping the system fairly strong. Extratropical transition is
expected by 72 hours, but it could occur sooner due to 50 kt or
more of shear and SSTs around 20C by that time. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, remaining above the
consensus models ICON and IVCN, and is close to a blend of the SHIPS
and LGEM intensity models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 26.1N 73.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 28.6N 73.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 31.9N 72.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 35.0N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 37.7N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 43.4N 57.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/0600Z 47.5N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z 49.5N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[artist]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 041438
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014

...BERTHA BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2014 ATLANTIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 73.6W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND PASS ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA ON TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BY LATE TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014

Bertha continues to have a disorganized appearance on satellite
imagery. A small burst of deep convection is occurring just east
of the center, and the system continues to have well-defined
upper-level outflow over the southeastern quadrant. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the tropical
cyclone, and we shall soon see if Bertha is maintaining hurricane
status. Based on wind data from an Air Force mission earlier this
afternoon, which showed a slight decrease, the current intensity is
reduced to 65 kt. Flight-level wind data from that earlier mission
also showed that the circulation had a very small extent over the
northwestern quadrant, and high-resolution visible imagery shows low
clouds moving northwestward, away from the center, not far from the
center over that quadrant. This suggests that, if the environmental
low-level flow increases, Bertha may have a difficult time
maintaining a closed circulation. For now, the NHC intensity
forecast calls for gradual weakening, and is a little below most of
the guidance since the shear is predicted to become prohibitively
strong, 50 kt or more, in just 36 hours.

Fixes from the aircraft showed a gradual increase in forward speed
and the initial motion is around 360/15. There are no important
changes to the track forecast or reasoning. During the next couple
of days, Bertha will be moving between a mid-level high pressure
area over the southwestern Atlantic and a broad trough moving off
the northeast United States coast. This should result in a gradual
turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with additional
acceleration during the next 24-48 hours. Later in the forecast
period, Bertha or its post-tropical counterpart should accelerate
east-northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies over the north
Atlantic. The official forecast is similar to the previous one and
lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 29.4N 73.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 31.8N 72.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 34.7N 70.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 37.5N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 40.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 47.0N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1800Z 49.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1800Z 49.0N 24.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014

Bertha certainly does not look like a typical hurricane in satellite
imagery this evening. The center has become partially exposed to
the northwest of the deep convection. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that recently investigated the cyclone observed
flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde winds that all supported hurricane
intensity late this afternoon. Since that time, the organization
has degraded a little and it is possible that Bertha has weakened
below hurricane strength. However, new convection has recently
formed just east of the center near where the strongest winds were
measured earlier. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 65
kt. This could be generous, but it is best to maintain hurricane
status until the the next Hurricane Hunter aircraft examines the
storm around 0600 UTC.

Bertha is forecast to gradually weaken during the next day or two
while it moves into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical
wind shear and over decreasing sea surface temperatures. On
Wednesday, the cyclone is expected to interact with an approaching
mid-latitude trough and Bertha is forecast to become an
extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic shortly thereafter.

Fixes from the aircraft show that Bertha is moving a little faster
and has turned north-northeastward this evening. The track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged. Bertha is expected to accelerate
northeastward during the next day or two between a mid-level ridge
over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough moving off the
northeast United States coast. After Bertha becomes a post-tropical
cyclone in 48 to 72 hours, it is forecast to turn east-northeastward
in the mid-latitude westerly flow over the north Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 31.3N 73.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 33.7N 71.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 36.6N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 39.3N 64.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 42.1N 58.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 47.5N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 48.5N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z 49.5N 15.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Equilibrium]

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 1(40) X(40)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

[arlwx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERTHA HAS
WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 72.9W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA WILL PASS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE U.S.
EAST COAST AND BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...OVER A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[arlwx]

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that Bertha's winds have decreased below hurricane strength, which
is logical given that little deep convection now exists near the
center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, which
could generous given that only 45-kt surface winds have been
reported thus far. However, the recon aircraft has not yet completed
its entire mission, so I do not want to bring the intensity
too quickly in the event stronger winds are found east of the center
and/or deep convection redevelops.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 015/19 kt. Bertha
briefly accelerated to about 21-22 kt after losing its deep
convection a few hours ago, but recon fix data suggests that the
cyclone's motion has settled down to around 19 kt now. Overall, the
official track forecast and philosophy remains basically unchanged.
The NHC model guidance remains in very good agreement on Bertha
continuing its northeastward trek around the western periphery of a
deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 24 hours or so, and then
accelerate eastward after getting caught up in the mid-latitude
westerlies by 36-48 hours. The official forecast track is similar to
but slightly west of the previous advisory track to account for the
more westward initial position, and closely follows the consensus
model TVCA.

Bertha is forecast to experience increasing vertical wind shear
over the next two days, with the shear reaching 50 kt or more by
24-36 hours. The combination of the strong shear and decreasing SSTs
should induce steady weakening and cause extratropical transition
by 36 hours or so. However, not as much weakening is expected with
such strong shear conditions due to the expected infusion of
baroclinic energy associated with a strong mid-latitude trough that
is forecast to capture Bertha by 48 hours, which will help maintain
the cyclone's intensity. The intensity forecast during the
extratropical phase closely follows input from the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 33.4N 72.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 35.9N 70.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 38.6N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 41.3N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/0600Z 44.1N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0600Z 48.5N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z 49.3N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0600Z 50.3N 14.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014

Deep convection redeveloped over the center earlier today, but
that convection was subsequently sheared off to the east-northeast.
An ASCAT overpass from a few hours ago indicated that, although
Bertha still had a well-defined surface circulation, the maximum
winds were no more than 45 kt, Based on this, and a Dvorak
classification of T3.0 from TAFB, the advisory intensity is
set at 45 kt. The scatterometer data also indicated that there
were no winds to tropical storm force over the western semicircle of
the circulation. The SHIPS model predicts that west-southwesterly
shear will increase greatly over the next day or two, and these
conditions could cause more weakening than indicated by the
official forecast. However, it is possible that the system may
maintain more of its intensity by extracting energy from baroclinic
processes associated with the frontal system just to its north. In
any event, global models show the system becoming embedded within
the frontal zone within 36 hours, so the official forecast indicates
that the transition to a post-tropical/extratropical cyclone will
be complete by that time.

Bertha's heading is gradually shifting to the right and the motion
is now 030/18 kt. There is little change to the track forecast
philosophy. Over the next couple of days, the tropical, or
post-tropical, cyclone should turn toward the northeast and
accelerate ahead of an amplifying mid-level trough moving off the
northeast United States coast. Later in the forecast period, the
system should move swiftly east-northeastward to eastward in the
mid-latitude westerlies over the North Atlantic.

The track and wind radii forecast for 36 hours and beyond have been
coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 36.2N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 38.2N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 41.0N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 43.7N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/1800Z 46.0N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1800Z 48.0N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 49.0N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 51.0N 1.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 05 2014

Bertha briefly became devoid of thunderstorm activity late
this afternoon, however a new burst of deep convection has
developed to the northeast of the center this evening. The initial
wind speed remains 45 kt and is based on a Dvorak classification of
T3.0 from TAFB. The vertical shear over Bertha has increased to
more than 40 kt and is expected to increase even further by
Wednesday. Despite the shear, little overall change in strength is
predicted during the next 24 hours since Bertha will transform into
an extratropical low and gain some energy from baroclinic processes
during that time.

The latest fixes indicate that Bertha has turned northeastward
with a motion of 045/20 kt. The cyclone should continue
northeastward during the next 48 hours ahead of a mid-latitude
trough that is moving off the northeast United States coast. Later
in the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone is predicted to
move east-northeastward to eastward in mid-latitude westerly flow
over the North Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 37.5N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 39.5N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 42.2N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 07/1200Z 45.0N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/0000Z 47.3N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0000Z 48.5N 33.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0000Z 48.5N 17.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM AST WED AUG 06 2014

Deep convection continues to pulse downshear of the center of
Bertha, as the tropical cyclone is situated in a favorable region
for forced ascent in the equatorward entrance region of an upper-
level jet streak. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on the
Dvorak classification from TAFB and an earlier ASCAT pass that
showed some 40-45 kt winds east of the center. As Bertha becomes
embedded in the jet, the vertical shear will increase in the next 12
to 24 hours. This should result in the low-level circulation
decoupling from the convection while the cyclone becomes embedded in
a baroclinic zone. Bertha should be post-tropical by 24 hours, and
then gradually decay as an extratropical cyclone. Bertha is
expected to be absorbed by day 5, although this could occur sooner.

The latest satellite fixes indicate an initial motion of 055/24.
Bertha is well embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a
mid-latitude trough, and will continue moving northeastward over the
north Atlantic for the next day or so before turning eastward by 72
hours. The new NHC track is largely an update of the previous one,
and is close to guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction
Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 39.0N 65.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 40.8N 61.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 43.6N 55.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 07/1800Z 46.0N 49.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/0600Z 48.0N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0600Z 48.5N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0600Z 48.5N 12.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 AM AST WED AUG 06 2014

Satellite images indicate that Bertha has become associated with a
frontal system and has acquired extratropical characteristics. The
low-level center is devoid of deep convection and is on the cold air
side of a frontal cloud band or trough extending from Nova Scotia
southwestward to the Bahamas. In addition, there is a strong
westerly upper-level jet over the system.

The low is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 27 knots
steered by the mid-latitude westerlies. Most of the global models
keep the post-tropical cyclone moving rapidly northeastward and
then eastward over the North Atlantic.

This is the last advisory issued by the NHC on Bertha. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 40.2N 62.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 07/0000Z 42.3N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 07/1200Z 45.0N 52.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/0000Z 47.5N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1200Z 48.5N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1200Z 48.0N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1200Z 48.5N 8.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z...Absorbed

$$
Forecaster Avila