ATL: BERTHA - Advisories

[Hurricaneman]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010259
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 55.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft earlier
this afternoon and evening indicated that the well-defined low
pressure system located about 250 nmi east-southeast of Barbados had
surface winds of about 40 kt north and northeast of the center.
Since the departure of the aircraft, a band of deep convection has
developed near and to the north and east of the low-level center,
and now has enough organization to consider this system a tropical
cyclone.

The initial motion estimate is 290/17 kt. Bertha is moving along
the southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge located to the
north based on earlier dropsonde data obtained by a NOAA
Gulfstream-IV jet aircraft. The NHC model guidance is in excellent
agreement on the cyclone maintaining a general west-northwestward
motion for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn
toward the northwest after that through 96 hours. By Day 5, Bertha
is expected to turn northward as it moves around the western portion
of the ridge. The official forecast track is similar to but slightly
north of the consensus model, TVCA.

The environment surrounding Bertha is not particularly favorable
for significant strengthening during the next two days due
to modest westerly shear and limited mid-level moisture. However,
the cyclone will be moving over increasing SSTs and within an
upper-level atmosphere that is slightly cooler than normal. The
resultant increase in instability could allow for some slight
strengthening to occur before Bertha interacts with Puerto Rico
and eastern Hispaniola in about 48 hours or so. After the cyclone
clears land, some slight re-strengthening is possible based on the
SHIPS model indicating that the vertical shear decreasing to less
than 10 kt and SSTs increasing to near 29C. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the consensus model ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 12.3N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 13.2N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 14.5N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 16.1N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 17.9N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 22.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 26.8N 75.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 32.0N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[supercane]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010542
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
200 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA HEADING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 56.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE LATER
TODAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BARBADOS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[arlwx]

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE LATER
TODAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 57.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 57.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 56.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.0N 59.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 68.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 24.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 29.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 35.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 57.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[arlwx]

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

Bertha is a sheared tropical cyclone with the center located on the
western edge of the deep convection as indicated by satellite. The
low-level circulation continues to be vigorous, but given the
current westerly shear the outflow is very limited. There are no
reasons to change the initial intensity which is kept at 40 knots.
Another Air Force reconnaissance plane will investigate Bertha in
the next several hours.

The current shear environment is not particularly favorable for
strengthening, but there are some indications by the global models
that the shear could decrease some as Bertha moves across the
northeastern Caribbean Sea. This should allow some slight
intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Once Bertha's
circulation moves away from Hispaniola beyond 48 hours, there is an
opportunity for additional strengthening if the shear becomes
lighter as suggested by global and statistical models. At this time,
the NHC forecast keeps Bertha with 45-knot winds over the
western Atlantic until it becomes more certain that the shear could
subside.

Bertha continues racing toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees
at 17 knots. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around the
Atlantic subtropical ridge which is forecast to persist. Once in
the western Atlantic near the eastern Bahamas, Bertha will be
steered by the southerly flow between the subtropical high
and a mid-level trough over the eastern United States. This pattern
will force Bertha to turn northward with a decrease in forward speed
and to eventually recurve northeastward over the Atlantic. The
confidence in the track forecast, primarily in the next 2 to 3
days, is high since most the guidance is tightly clustered. The
confidence decreases after 3 days when the guidance becomes
divergent. The track envelope, however, brings Bertha northward
and then northeastward over the Atlantic, and the NHC forecast
follows closely the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 13.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 14.0N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 15.5N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 17.2N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 19.5N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 24.5N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 29.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 35.0N 67.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
800 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO INVESTIGATE BERTHA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR MARTINIQUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 57.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF
BARBADOS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE BERTHA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

CORRECTED WATCH POINTS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS BERTHA SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT
DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 58.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES
VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE
GRENADINES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF BARBADOS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
ON SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...
85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U. S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE
HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

Bertha is disorganized this morning. While satellite imagery shows
a well-defined low-cloud swirl exposed just west of the main
convective mass, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft show that the wind field more resembles that of an open
wave. The aircraft did report 56 kt winds at 1500 feet to the
east-northeast of the center, along with an area of SFMR surface
winds in excess of 40 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is
increased to 45 kt.

The initial motion is now 295/18, and over the past few hours
Bertha may be moving even faster. The cyclone is currently being
steered by the flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge and this
should continue for the next 48 hours or so. After that time, the
cyclone is expected to turn northward into a break in the ridge
caused by a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States. This
should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies over the
Atlantic north of Bermuda. The track guidance remains in good
agreement with this scenario, and it has changed little since the
previous advisory. The new forecast track is therefore an update of
the previous forecast.

Bertha is currently experiencing about 15-20 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear. and water vapor imagery shows dry
mid-/upper-level air near the storm. The forecast track calls for
Bertha to interact with one or two upper-level troughs during the
next 48-72 hours, which should cause some shear and dry air
entrainment to continue. This, combined with the current lack
of organization, suggests little change in strength should
occur during the next 48 hours or so. After that time, Bertha is
expected to move into an environment of less shear and greater
moisture. The intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening
during that time, but it is weaker than all of the guidance except
the Florida State Superensemble. An alternative scenario is that a
combination of shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction
causes Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 48
hours, followed by possible regeneration in the 72-120 hours when
the system reaches the more favorable environment.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 14.0N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.0N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.6N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 18.6N 67.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 20.9N 70.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 31.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 36.5N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
200 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...CENTER OF BERTHA APPROACHING MARTINIQUE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 60.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NNW OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR MARTINIQUE
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U. S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE
HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...CENTER OF BERTHA PASSING NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF MARTINIQUE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 61.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF FORT DE FRANCE MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...
LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS
WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM
MARTINIQUE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY...PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A FRENCH WEATHER STATION ON
LA DESIRADE ISLAND NEAR GUADELOUPE RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 35 MPH...56 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE WARNING AREA...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON GUADELOUPE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR IN
SQUALLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U. S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE
HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

Earlier observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft and recent surface observations from Martinique indicate
that Bertha still has a closed circulation, although the area of
westerly winds south of the center is rather small. The aircraft-
reported pressures were 1006-1007 mb, and the Martinique data
suggests a current central pressure of 1007 mb. Based on this and
the aircraft wind data, the initial intensity remains 45 kt. New
convection is currently developing in this bands near the center,
with a more solid area of convection farther east.

The initial motion is now 290/21. Bertha continues to be steered
west-northwestward by the flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge
and this should continue for the next 36-48 hours. After that time,
the cyclone is expected to turn northward into a break in the ridge
caused by a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States. This
motion should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies over
the Atlantic between Bermuda and New England, and then by a
northeastward motion over the open North Atlantic. While the track
guidance has nudged a little to the left since 6 hours ago, it
remains in good agreement with this scenario. The new forecast
track is therefore tweaked just a little to the left of the previous
track, and it is a little faster than the previous track after
recurvature.

Bertha continues to experience about 15 kt of southwesterly vertical
wind shear, and a combination of water vapor imagery and microwave
total precipitable water shows abundant dry air near the storm. The
forecast track calls for Bertha to interact with one or two upper-
level troughs during the next 48 hours or so, which should cause
some shear and dry air entrainment to continue. This, combined with
the current lack of organization, suggests little change in strength
should occur during that time. This part of the new intensity
forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. Subsequently,
Bertha is expected to move into an environment of less shear and
greater moisture. The intensity guidance responds to this by
forecasting significant intensification, with several models showing
Bertha becoming a hurricane during recurvature. Based on this, the
latter part of the intensity forecast is nudged upward from the
previous forecast, although it is still weaker than most of the
guidance. An alternative scenario remains possible: that a
combination of shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction
causes Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 48
hours, followed by possible regeneration in the 72-120 hours when
the system reaches the more favorable environment.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 14.9N 61.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 16.0N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 17.8N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.9N 69.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 22.4N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 27.5N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 33.5N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 38.5N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
800 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...BERTHA MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 61.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.9 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...PASS NEAR PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A WEATHER STATION ON DOMINICA
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H. GUADELOUPE
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 37 MPH...59 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON GUADELOUPE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE COULD OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...DISORGANIZED BERTHA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 63.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BERTHA WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OVERNIGHT...PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY...MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GUADELOUPE
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 37 MPH...59 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER DOMINICA
AND GUADELOUPE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. WIND
GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[gatorcane]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 020254
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

While some convection developed near the estimated center during the
past few hours, the circulation of Bertha remains disorganized. In
fact, the Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been unable to find a center
at 5000 ft this evening. However, surface observations suggested
that there was still a small closed surface circulation when Bertha
moved between Martinique and Dominica a few hours ago. The estimated
center position is on the southwestern edge of the convective
canopy, consistent with the 16 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed by
the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on
several SFMR winds of 40-45 kt reported by the aircraft east and
northeast of the center.

While the SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing on Saturday, Bertha
will continue moving through a dry environment during the next 24 to
36 hours. There is also the potential for land interaction with
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola during this time, which could disrupt the
small circulation. Given all of these factors, little change in
intensity is expected through 36 hours. After that time, if Bertha
survives, the environment is expected to become more favorable for
intensification with warming SSTs, increasing moisture, and lower
vertical shear. Much of the intensity guidance shows Bertha reaching
hurricane strength in 72 to 96 hours, and the official forecast
follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted
upward from 48 to 96 hours, but remains a little below the IVCN
intensity consensus. Note that it is possible that the combination
of shear, dry air, and land interaction could cause Bertha to
degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 36 hours, followed by
possible regeneration when the system reaches the more favorable
environment later in the forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is 290/19, as Bertha is being steered
west-northwestward by a deep-layer subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic. The ridge will begin to erode after 24 hours as a
mid- to upper-level trough moves through the eastern United States,
which should allow Bertha to turn northwestward and then northward
by 3 days. After that time, Bertha is expected to complete
recurvature and accelerate northeastward into the north Atlantic.
The track model guidance remains in good agreement on this general
scenario, however, there is a fair bit of spread in how sharply
Bertha will recurve. The GFS and GEFS ensemble mean lie on the
eastern edge of the guidance envelope, with the ECMWF, HWRF, and
GFDL showing a more gradual turn and a track a little farther west.
Through 36 hours the new NHC track is an update of the previous one.
After that time, the official forecast has been nudged toward the
left, but lies a little to the right of the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 15.7N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 16.9N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 19.0N 68.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 21.4N 71.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 24.0N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 30.0N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 35.5N 68.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 40.0N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[arlwx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
200 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

...BERTHA RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 64.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. BERTHA IS
RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA
WILL PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
ON SUNDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR
IN SQUALLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BY LATE SATURDAY...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

...BERTHA MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 64.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...THE RAGGED ISLANDS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...
RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST. BERTHA IS
RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA
WILL PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL AS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

Bertha is a disorganized tropical cyclone, but based on earlier
reconnaissance aircraft data, it is still producing winds of 40 to
45 knots. Satellite data show that the low-level center is exposed
with most of the showers and squalls to the north and east. San Juan
Puerto Rico radar also shows the circulation associated with the
cyclone. Another plane will be investigating Bertha in a few hours.
The shear has not decreased, but global models insist on forecasting
a little more conducive upper-level environment in 24 hours or so.
If the cyclone survives the current shear, and the interaction with
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, it could strengthen slightly over the
open Atlantic as indicated in the NHC forecast. In fact, this is the
solution of the SHIPS and HWRF models.

Bertha continues to be embedded within a strong easterly flow south
of the subtropical ridge, and the cyclone is racing toward the
west-northwest of 295 degrees at about 19 knots. However, in about
24 to 36 hours, Bertha will reach the southwestern edge of
the ridge and will likely slow down a little. The cyclone will then
move northward and northeastward over the Atlantic, steered by the
southerly flow between the ridge and a trough over the eastern
United States. This is the solution of most of the dynamical models
which indeed are in pretty good agreement. The NHC forecast follows
the multi-model consensus and is very similar to the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 16.3N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 17.8N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 20.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 22.5N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 25.0N 73.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 31.0N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 36.0N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 40.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[arlwx]

Tropical Storm Warning

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
625 AM AST SAT AUG 2 2014

...BERTHA MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
STORM INFORMATION SECTION UPDATED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...NORTHEAST...SOUTHEAST...EASTERN
INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL INTERIOR...PONCE AND
VICINITY...NORTHWEST...WESTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY...
SOUTHWEST...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS AND ST CROIX.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 6 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3N...LONGITUDE 64.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 160 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PONCE PR...OR ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX
VI. STORM MOTION WAS WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
BERTHA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO WEST NORTHWEST NEXT 12 HOURS PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF PONCE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN BANDS WILL BECOME MORE
FREQUENT AND INTENSE LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH
THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY ONCE THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DURING THE STORM...STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT
VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR DURING TEMPORARY
LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN EASILY...AND SUDDENLY...CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.

HAVE A WELL-CHARGED CELL PHONE NEARBY...KEEPING NETWORK
COMMUNICATIONS AS OPEN AS POSSIBLE FOR EMERGENCIES.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR SMALL CRAFT WHO FAILED TO MAKE IT TO SAFE HARBOR OR PORT...
AND ARE NOW IN DISTRESS...RADIO YOUR SITUATION ACCORDING TO
MARITIME PROTOCOL. IF APPROPRIATE...DEPLOY YOUR EMERGENCY
DISTRESS BEACON. ENSURE THAT EVERYONE IS WEARING LIFE JACKETS...
AND SURVIVAL SUITS IF AVAILABLE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 930 AM AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-021645-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
625 AM AST SAT AUG 2 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST AT PONCE AND
IS NEAR 80 PERCENT.

[Equilibrium]

WTNT01 KNGU 020901
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM BERTHA (03L) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA (03L) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 64.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 64.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.8N 67.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.0N 70.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.5N 72.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 25.0N 73.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 31.0N 72.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 36.0N 67.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 40.0N 58.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 64.9W.
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA (03L), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN_JUAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
12 FT SEAS: 180NM NE, 0NM SE, 0NM SW, 0NM NW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
//
BT



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[arlwx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
800 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

...BERTHA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY SQUALLS MOVING INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 65.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...155 KM SW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 120 MI...135 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. BERTHA IS
RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA
WILL PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42060 RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H AND A WIND GUST OF
45 MPH...72 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD
OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL AS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

...CENTER OF BERTHA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 66.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES
VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...WITH THIS MOTION
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BERTHA SHOULD PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO TODAY...NEAR OR OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A CARIBBEAN INTEGRATED
COASTAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM BUOY LOCATED SOUTH OF ST. THOMAS
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44 MPH...68 KM/H...AND A WIND
GUST OF 72 MPH...115 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY MONDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL AS THE TURKS AND CAICOS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH
THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

Bertha remains a disorganized tropical cyclone this morning, as
even with the aid of Doppler radar data it is difficult to find
a closed circulation. The low-level center is near the western edge
of the main convective mass, which indicates the system is still
affected by vertical wind shear. However, the convection has become
a little better organized during the past 24 hours, and the outflow
is improving over the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity
remains 45 kt based on a combination of continuity and Doppler radar
data.

The initial motion is 290/19. Bertha is approaching the
southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and should turn
northwest during the next 6-12 hours. A turn toward the north
should occur in about 48 hours as Bertha moves between the ridge
and a deep-layer trough over the southeastern United States. After
that, the cyclone should turn northeastward as it enters the
mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in excellent
agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast track is generally
similar to the previous track. There has been a small westward
shift during the first 12-24 hours, with the center now forecast to
make landfall over the eastern Dominican Republic.

Little change in strength is expected during the next 36 hours or
so as Bertha deals with lingering shear, dry air entrainment, and
passage over the mountains of Hispaniola. After that, the cyclone
is expected to move into a more favorable environment that could
allow strengthening. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from
the previous advisory, calling for Bertha to become a hurricane
for a short time after recurvature. It is possible that passage
over the Dominican Republic could cause Bertha to degenerate to a
tropical wave. Should that happen, there would be a chance for
regeneration when the system reaches the more favorable environment
to the north.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 17.2N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 18.8N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/1200Z 21.2N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 04/0000Z 23.6N 73.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 26.4N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 32.5N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 37.5N 64.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 42.0N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
200 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

...CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED BERTHA MOVING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 67.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM WSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...WITH THIS MOTION
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BERTHA SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...
MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY EARLY
SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY MONDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL AS THE TURKS AND CAICOS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH
THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

...CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED BERTHA MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 68.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM E OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U. S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THIS MOTION
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA
SHOULD MOVE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVER PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY MONDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL AS THE TURKS AND CAICOS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH
THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

Bertha has maintained some organized convection over the eastern
semicircle during the past several hours. However, the system
barely qualifies as a tropical cyclone, as a combination of NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface data cannot definitively close
off the circulation. The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt
based on a combination of surface observations and data from the San
Juan WSR-88D Doppler radar. It should be noted that Bertha
continues to suffer from dry air entrainment and northwesterly
vertical shear, and advisories could be discontinued tonight or
Sunday if the system becomes any less organized.

The initial motion is now 300/19. Bertha is approaching the
southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and should turn
northwestward during the next several hours. A turn toward the
north should occur in about 48 hours as Bertha moves between the
ridge and a deep-layer trough over the southeastern United States.
After that, the cyclone should turn northeastward as it enters the
mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance remains in good
agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast track is
again generally similar to the previous track.

There are now three possible scenarios for the intensity of Bertha.
The scenario for the official forecast is that Bertha survives its
current lack of structure, land interaction, and dry air
entrainment long enough to reach a more favorable environment in
about 36 hours. At that point, it would likely intensify until
the onset of extratropical transition in 96-120 hours. Using this
scenario, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous
forecast and calls for Bertha to become a hurricane in about 96
hours. The second scenario is that Bertha degenerates to a tropical
wave as it passes over Hispaniola, with possible regeneration later
when the system reaches the more favorable environment. A new third
possibility involves a low pressure area currently developing over
the northwestern Bahamas. The UKMET and NAVGEM forecast this low to
get strong enough to absorb Bertha in 48 hours or so, while the
other models are less bullish on the its development. Later model
runs should help determine the likelihood of this scenario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 18.4N 68.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 20.0N 70.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 22.5N 72.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 25.1N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 28.0N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 34.0N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 38.5N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 43.5N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven