ATL: Ex-INVEST 94L - Models

[SFLcane]

[Blown Away]

06z...

06z...

06z...

72 Hour Forecast Position...

[Blown Away]

[blp]

Intersting run by the Euro it takes 94l moves it over the big islands and then has it over SW Florida in 216hrs.

[gatorcane]

[blp]

12z GFS keeps it going a little longer than 06z and keeps it alive until 120hr versus 108hr followed by it opening up in the E. Carribean.

[Blown Away]

12z...


12z... In 2-3 days the intensity models begin to increase...

[gatorcane]

The GEM has finally picked up on this system. Here is the 12Z 180 hour position, east of the Bahamas. Sends it much further north than the GFS:

[gatorcane]

and here is how the 12Z GEM run ends at 240 hours with a strengthening system just off the Mid Atlantic coast moving slowly to the NNW. Good thing it's the GEM!

[gatorcane]

It looks more and more like this invest is not going to be a "Caribbean cruiser" with nearly all the models now showing a track north of the Caribbean, even without fully deepening this invest. The ECMWF (not shown) shows a track just north of the islands similar to the cluster of GFS ensembles shown below:



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[Alyono]

this is going through the Caribbean

we were all fooled by Bertha. Even the shallow models were taking it to the north and it moved through Martinique

Lets not make the same mistake again. The models nearly ALWAYS take these things too far north too quickly

[Tireman4]

this is going through the Caribbean

we were all fooled by Bertha. Even the shallow models were taking it to the north and it moved through Martinique

Lets not make the same mistake again. The models nearly ALWAYS take these things too far north too quickly

What is your thinking after that? Too early to say?

[chaser1]

I disagree with the thought that 94L will traverse the Caribbean primarily because of I assume "if" a center does form within the somewhat large envelope, that center would likely develop on the more northern edge of its wave access - between 15N - 20N. Of course we all know that any intensity or track models are initially going to be simply "wonky" until we have a much better defined COC. In fact, I think the models are initializing 94L close to 12N. It may be near 12 N, in which case I'd be more inclined to agree with you. My experience with broad scale weak systems is either that new centers will tend to keep redeveloping to its east (as older vorticities spin out and decay as they shoot off to the west) or more commonly that outside of beneficial dynamic influences that distinctly cause a tropical cyclone to develop or move as a result of those dynamic influences.... seems to me that more often than not that "north" tends to be how many (tropical or baroclinic) weaker systems end up forming while the low level feature tries to catch up with the mid/upper levels often being yanked northward.

Even given the present easterly shear, I'm still thinking that there are some lingering low to mid level moisture or mid level cap issues. A mid Atlantic trough appear to dip in about 36 hours and am guessing that the added shear might help fire up convection more closely to the added upper air divergence. My guess is that this might provide enough of a trigger mechanism to aid convection and that any center that might form would tend to be closer to that point (approx. 50W - 60W & 15N - 20N ??). So, given a potentially farther north COC alone.... I would be far less inclined to still think the system would be able to maintain a 270 heading for any period of time (especially if deepening). As time goes on, I'm guessing increasing downstream low latitude (upper level) Westerlies and less than ideal conditions in the MDR, will help attribute to areas further north and west than normal as being more favorable zones for development.

[gatorcane]

Models that are available in this graphic have indeed shifted south. As Alyono pointed out, often time models want to lift a system out of the MDR too quickly initially.

[SFLcane]

Not very reliable but intensity models in 00z are stronger. Some approaching cat 2.

[chaser1]

How odd? I'm surprised that the intensity models have not backed off at least a little bit especially given how the global models barely notice the system. Furthermore, the "ramp up" period is not being pushed back but appearing to be approx. 36-42 hours away (and that is to T.S. strength). That just seems overly ambitious.

On another note...., had someone recently posted that the UK Model was recently upgraded to be more accurate than before? Just curious if anyone had access to the 0Z model data from the UK regarding it's take on 94L.

[Blown Away]

06z...


06z... LGEM at Cat 3...





This will bring in some of the Storm2k GOM folks...

[northjaxpro]

Not yet. If , and it is at the moment a big IF, 94L can survive and make it into the Caribbean by this weekend, then we may see the Gulf Coasters on here more frequently.

[perk]

You certainly will.

[gatorcane]

I don't think SHIPS takes into account mid-level dry air too, it just looks at the shear.