CPAC: INVEST 94C

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Equilibrium

#101 Postby Equilibrium » Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:35 pm

01C.One 01C.Wali ?
2014071800

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/w ... h=07&sec=5

102 hours forecast impacts the islands

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Re:

#102 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:44 pm

Equilibrium wrote:01C.One 01C.Wali ?
2014071800

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/w ... h=07&sec=5

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That probs ins't 94C. Just the NRL screwed up during Wali IMO.

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Equilibrium

Re: Re:

#103 Postby Equilibrium » Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:58 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Equilibrium wrote:01C.One 01C.Wali ?
2014071800

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/w ... h=07&sec=5

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


That probs ins't 94C. Just the NRL screwed up during Wali IMO.

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Name is screwed but think here it is this system on the model.

Image

Image

Image

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Equilibrium

#104 Postby Equilibrium » Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:32 pm

WTPN21 PHNC 180030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171921Z AUG 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 171930). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 142.0W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
14.8N 142.5W, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MINIMAL DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.//

Easy come easy go. roller coaster was looking forward to recon
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Re: Re:

#105 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 17, 2014 11:33 pm

Equilibrium wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Equilibrium wrote:01C.One 01C.Wali ?
2014071800

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/w ... h=07&sec=5

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


That probs ins't 94C. Just the NRL screwed up during Wali IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Name is screwed but think here it is this system on the model.

Image

Image

Image

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Sorry but that's from July.
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#106 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 18, 2014 7:19 am

Time for 94C to bust.

1. A low pressure area about 860 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, had been heading slowly west, though it appears to have become nearly stationary over the past few hours. Thunderstorms near this system remain sporadic and disorganized. Environmental conditions, especially at the lower levels, are becoming less conducive for development of a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent.
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#107 Postby AFWeather » Mon Aug 18, 2014 9:50 am

Not long before poor 94C is an ex-invest. GFS continues to show a pattern of storms paralleling Baha but nothing moving near or towards the CPAC for the foreseeable future.
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#108 Postby Steve820 » Mon Aug 18, 2014 5:06 pm

Looks like this invest busted. It's really getting ripped apart and luckily it didn't become Ana! I want Ana to wait until 2015 so we can see the same name used in two different basins (Atlantic and CPac) in the same year.
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#109 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:28 pm

Image
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#110 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:42 pm

One last shot maybe then?
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#111 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:42 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:One last shot maybe then?


I think the shear was from Karina since it got closer than forecast.
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#112 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:58 pm

12z Euro shows some development of 94C.
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#113 Postby Steve820 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 8:00 pm

I still don't think it'll become much though.
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#114 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:13 am

I think this invest is still alive. GFS has it moving ENE.

1. Low pressure about 745 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, is nearly stationary. Isolated thunderstorms continues to flair up near the low, but are showing little sign of organization. Conditions are conducive for only limited development over the next two days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent.
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