ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

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cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 15, 2014 5:26 pm

Model runs here.

WHXX01 KWBC 152148
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2148 UTC FRI AUG 15 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952014) 20140815 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140815 1800 140816 0600 140816 1800 140817 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 19.0W 14.4N 20.5W 14.5N 21.8W 14.4N 23.0W
BAMD 14.2N 19.0W 15.0N 21.4W 15.7N 23.8W 16.2N 26.3W
BAMM 14.2N 19.0W 14.8N 21.2W 15.1N 23.3W 15.3N 25.7W
LBAR 14.2N 19.0W 14.7N 21.2W 15.4N 23.8W 15.8N 26.6W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 21KTS 23KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 21KTS 23KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140817 1800 140818 1800 140819 1800 140820 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 24.4W 15.4N 29.1W 15.7N 36.8W 14.7N 44.6W
BAMD 16.7N 29.1W 17.7N 35.6W 18.7N 42.9W 19.6N 49.9W
BAMM 15.5N 28.2W 15.9N 34.8W 16.2N 43.1W 16.9N 51.4W
LBAR 16.4N 29.6W 18.3N 36.0W 20.3N 41.9W 22.3N 45.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 36KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 19.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 17.5W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 15.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 15, 2014 8:07 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0028 UTC SAT AUG 16 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952014) 20140816 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140816 0000 140816 1200 140817 0000 140817 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 19.6W 15.2N 21.0W 15.6N 22.4W 16.0N 24.1W
BAMD 14.7N 19.6W 15.7N 22.0W 16.4N 24.5W 17.0N 27.2W
BAMM 14.7N 19.6W 15.2N 21.8W 15.6N 24.2W 15.8N 26.7W
LBAR 14.7N 19.6W 15.5N 21.7W 16.3N 24.4W 17.0N 27.3W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 35KTS 35KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 35KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140818 0000 140819 0000 140820 0000 140821 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 26.3W 18.1N 32.8W 19.5N 40.0W 20.4N 46.3W
BAMD 17.6N 30.2W 18.6N 37.1W 19.7N 44.2W 20.4N 51.4W
BAMM 16.0N 29.5W 16.5N 37.1W 16.9N 45.8W 17.9N 54.8W
LBAR 18.1N 30.3W 20.5N 36.1W 23.0N 41.1W 24.4N 43.9W
SHIP 36KTS 42KTS 43KTS 46KTS
DSHP 36KTS 42KTS 43KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 19.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 18.2W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 16.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 15, 2014 8:19 pm

The blue line is UKMET that develops the wave in front. (Pouch 017L)

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#4 Postby blp » Fri Aug 15, 2014 9:48 pm

Kudos to the Euro it picked up on this this last night on the 00z run when the GFS was focusing on 17l. Now it has it dispating in 48hrs though followed by a new wave coming off Africa but still nice work. So we will see how it plays out but right now you need to throw the GFS out.

8-15 00z
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#5 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Aug 15, 2014 11:24 pm

I'd follow the CLP5 for this one. It's usually right twice a day. :)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#6 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 15, 2014 11:37 pm

The 0ZGFS kills this which either its right and the SAL and dry stable air win or its out to lunch and the other models win

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#7 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 15, 2014 11:53 pm

blp wrote:Kudos to the Euro it picked up on this this last night on the 00z run when the GFS was focusing on 17l. Now it has it dispating in 48hrs though followed by a new wave coming off Africa but still nice work. So we will see how it plays out but right now you need to throw the GFS out.


The global models though collectively have not done well with this pouch and is why the NHC had to issue the special outlook since the pouch is organizing more quickly than the models projected.
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#8 Postby Equilibrium » Fri Aug 15, 2014 11:53 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 16, 2014 6:37 am

blp wrote:Kudos to the Euro it picked up on this this last night on the 00z run when the GFS was focusing on 17l. Now it has it dispating in 48hrs though followed by a new wave coming off Africa but still nice work. So we will see how it plays out but right now you need to throw the GFS out.

8-15 00z
http://i60.tinypic.com/2e0vlo2.gif

The Euro showing dissipation within 48hrs. is looking to be spot on! Conditions are just HORRIBLE! As me and many others keep stating, you can kiss the Cape Verde season goodbye!
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