ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[rockyman]

What are the chances that the eastern end of the trough strengthens? I heard Levi mentioning this possibility in his daily video update.

[Nimbus]

It's supposed to bring us more rain. Good chances through Sunday. We don't need any more rain, but if it's going to rain anyway, hopefully we'll get some good thunderstorms out of it.

As a matter of fact, I'm hearing thunder now.

I thought Texas always needed rain? What do you grow for lawns just Bahia grass?
The Brownsville area outlook said possibly 2.25 inches of precipitation.
I would think Houston might get heavy rain with feeder bands bringing moisture in off the gulf.

[Tireman4]

It's supposed to bring us more rain. Good chances through Sunday. We don't need any more rain, but if it's going to rain anyway, hopefully we'll get some good thunderstorms out of it.

As a matter of fact, I'm hearing thunder now.

I thought Texas always needed rain? What do you grow for lawns just Bahia grass?
The Brownsville area outlook said possibly 2.25 inches of precipitation.
I would think Houston might get heavy rain with feeder bands bringing moisture in off the gulf.

Nimbus,

We do. The South and West more than others. We are in much better shape than we were in 2011. We are dry in Houston, that is true. My lawn is starting to brown.

[Tireman4]

[quote="somethingfunny"]At least the dry air isn't Texas's fault this time.

Another 2011 reference. Good one.

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak area of low
pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is currently limited.
However, some development of this system is still possible before it
moves inland over south Texas and northern Mexico on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like it has stopped progressing westward. Temporarily at least.

[davidiowx]

It literally hasn't moved at all in the past few hours. Convection developing around the center it appears as well. Tomorrow morning might be interesting. It is a wait a see scenario for sure.

[tropicwatch]

Its moving again, looks like the COC might go in near the Texas/Mexican border.

[Kludge]

[quote="panamatropicwatch"]Looks like it has stopped progressing westward. Temporarily at least.[quote]

I agree. And I wouldn't be surprised if we wake tomorrow AM to see another burst like we did today....except with less shear, we may see even more convection near the "center"

[Steve]

So I just switched from Worlds Dumbest to Fox 8 and it was the end of a segment of Bob Breck running the Rpm model which I think is a tv service radar model thing like Vipir. Anyway it was stopped on Saturday PM with a tropical storm shaped radar looking thing over the Houston area. I have no other details but that would be surge 2 in this round. Unfortunately I didn't get the source region but he said it was coming up from the south (guessing not 98L but it's only 3 days???). It looked earlier like the models wound send westward whatever was in the boc. So this would be before that since it's Saturday. Probably another low coming from the base of that trough as it swings west across the Gulf. FWIW it didn't look like an extreme system but it was looking tropical storm-y on the sim radar. Who knows?

Edit to say there is a shot it was next Saturday but I don't think those types of models are ever run on tv for 10 days.

[HURAKAN]

very unimpressive

[mulley]

Heard wx guy stating Galveston is 17 inches under it's norm as of yesterday- nothing like 2011 thankfully.
My size 15 EE could fit easily inside some cracks at a nearby athletic facility close to our home in Pearland back then.

[tailgater]

kicking it's heels up again this morning. radar out of Brownsville

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... O&loop=yes

[somethingfunny]

The only hope this thing has for development is getting rid of that upper level low, but at least it will still produce some rain - just not as widespread as a tropical cyclone would

[drezee]

This thing has a chance. Close to the coast but as long as it is 5 miles offshore it can go...see Jerry 05...Beryl '04

[jaguarjace]

Getting it's convection going again.

[cycloneye]

A weak area of low pressure near the coast of South Texas is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant
development of this system is unlikely before it moves inland over
South Texas and northern Mexico today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[NDG]

COC seems to be a good 30-40 miles offshore, not moving much this morning, NE of Brownsville.

[tolakram]

Unenhanced live IR loop, waiting impatiently for the sun to rise.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-94&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

Part of the circulation appears to be coming ashore.

[Portastorm]

As Steve reminded us in this thread a day or two ago, the classic "tightening up before it hits the Texas coast" scenario is playing out somewhat. Wonder what would have happened if 98L had another day or two.