ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[jaguarjace]

98L INVEST 140827 0600 26.8N 93.8W ATL 25 1010


98L Floater

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak low
pressure area located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has
increased during the past few hours. Some additional development is
possible before the system moves inland over southern Texas and
northern Mexico on Thursday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Senobia]

Does not look like it's moving SW to me. Appears to be just sitting there, spinning.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/sat ... mated.html

[Alyono]

likely to move due west into S Texas

However, all of the rain should spread over northern and middle Texas

[SouthDadeFish]

Currently under about 30 knots of shear, but shear could drop to a manageable 20 knots later today. I am surprised development chances are so low with a clear LLC, albeit displaced from the convection due to the aforementioned shear. Definitely something to keep an eye on in Texas, but I think shear should keep this thing in check even if it does develop.

[SouthDadeFish]

I think this thing is just one more convective burst away (one over the LLC) from being a TC. Really surprised development chances are only 20%. Morning RGB imagery shows hints of convection trying to form east of the LLC.

[tolakram]

live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-94&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[tropicwatch]

Waiting on floater

[tolakram]

For some reason I remember my favorite final discussion from the last few years. Are conditions any better than they were for The Don?

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 27.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

NNNN

[Tireman4]

For some reason I remember my favorite final discussion from the last few years. Are conditions any better than they were for The Don?

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 27.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

NNNN

Oh you just had to bring up Don. Oh my goodness Mark. LOL. LOL

[davidiowx]

If this were to rapidly intensify within the next few hours, would it move more poleward or continue W into South Texas?

[USTropics]

If this were to rapidly intensify within the next few hours, would it move more poleward or continue W into South Texas?

No, there is a high pressure area located to the north that will drive this more westward (refer to OPC surface analysis graphic below). Also, the 30 knots of shear that it's currently dealing with will keep any rapid intensification in check.

[vbhoutex]

Interestingly, last night there was almost no precipitation showing on radars and I was wondering if this was a dead issue. I wake up 5 hours later and we have what looks like rainbands moving onshore in the Galveston area. Not about to say this will develop quickly, if it does, but it sure seems to be giving it a try. Currently at my house 60 miles off the coast bright sunshine after being clouded over a while ago. You know where my eyes will be trained today!!

[Tireman4]

Interestingly, last night there was almost no precipitation showing on radars and I was wondering if this was a dead issue. I wake up 5 hours later and we have what looks like rainbands moving onshore in the Galveston area. Not about to say this will develop quickly, if it does, but it sure seems to be giving it a try. Currently at my house 60 miles off the coast bright sunshine after being clouded over a while ago. You know where my eyes will be trained today!!

Toward Don...no no...I agree David. This is an interesting situation.

[Steve]

Interestingly, last night there was almost no precipitation showing on radars and I was wondering if this was a dead issue.

It just needed time to fire off more convection. It was clear by about 10:00pm that cloud tops were cooling and new storms were blowing up near the center, but then again, I tend to have a late bedtime. Pretty nice presentation on satellite this morning, and if it stays somewhat stationary, you could see it crank to a TD/low end TS. Based on the isobar lines we were watching in the models last week, I'm surprised this is as organized as it is. I expected "low pressure" but not something this wrapped up. Even if it never makes classification, I think it should be obvious to everyone who has been down-casting the season or trying to claim it's winter in August that weather, as it usually does in the summer near the Gulf, is moving East to West. That's not winter ever.

[Senobia]

live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-94&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

On this image, what is the actual 'trackable area' people are following? The sw'ern edge of it where there is sporadic cloud cover (as I call it, white stuff) in a circle formation - or the big area of whiteness just off the TX coast? I'm having a hard time discerning how the area off the TX coast is going to move inland in S Texas/N Mexico in 24hrs, if that's the trackable part.

Yes, I've been here a long time.
No, I still haven't learned much.

Thanks in advance.

[Stormcenter]

In this sat. loop what looks like the center is pretty exposed.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[SouthDadeFish]

Very dry over the GOMEX in the mid-upper levels and the dry air is currently beating out any convection attempting to form near the LLC.

[tropicwatch]

Doesn't look like much movement at all right now.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26.3&lon=-95&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=10&map=latlon

[Steve]

Visible Floater is up, and it does mostly look stationary to me as well (new convection blowing up but probably will be somewhat sheared off later this afternoon or evening). JMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[HouTXmetro]

Any center relocation possible to deeper convection due to the sheared nature of storm?