EPAC: NORBERT - Post-Tropical
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This should be a major...dvorak image is convincing to me
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:ADT is classifying this with a pinhole eye.
ADT likes to do that for every storm in the process of clearing out an eye
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane
Which is what it is doing, trying to clear it out.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:ADT is classifying this with a pinhole eye.
That eye/center sure warmed pretty quick on ADT
014SEP05 213000 4.6 972.7 79.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF -66.36 -72.23 UNIFRM N/A 16.1 23.65 112.24 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP05 220000 4.6 972.6 79.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF -68.06 -71.19 UNIFRM N/A 16.1 23.69 112.28 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP05 223000 4.6 972.6 79.6 4.4 4.2 4.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG -67.56 -70.18 UNIFRM N/A 16.1 23.74 112.33 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP05 230000 4.6 972.6 79.6 4.3 4.2 4.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG -66.36 -69.93 UNIFRM N/A 16.1 23.78 112.38 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP05 233000 4.6 972.6 79.6 4.2 4.2 4.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG -55.86 -69.92 UNIFRM N/A 16.1 23.82 112.44 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP06 000000 4.6 972.6 79.6 4.3 4.8 6.0 0.5T/hour ON OFF -43.06 -70.81 EYE -99 IR 16.1 23.86 112.50 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP06 003000 4.6 972.5 79.6 4.4 4.7 6.0 0.5T/hour ON OFF -50.76 -71.23 EYE -99 IR 6.4 23.90 112.56 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP06 010000 4.6 972.5 79.6 4.6 5.9 6.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -53.56 -72.12 EYE -99 IR 6.4 23.99 112.68 SPRL GOES15 37.6
2014SEP06 013000 4.8 968.6 84.8 4.8 5.9 6.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -41.26 -72.53 EYE -99 IR 6.4 24.03 112.74 SPRL GOES15 37.5
2014SEP06 020000 5.2 961.0 94.8 5.2 5.9 6.6 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -19.13 -72.50 EYE/P -99 IR 6.4 24.07 112.81 SPRL GOES15 37.5
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Reminds me a bit, I mean a BIT of Hurricane Raymond last year, and this obviously has a different track. It reminds me of Raymond because of an unexpected RI (?) and that it had a sudden "pinhole" eye popping out, surrounded by ominously thick and cold convection, which made it a major. I dunno if Norbert will officially be a major, but I think it can.
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It's at the temporary weakening stage now that the pinhole eye is gone according to ADt. Thyey should rise again early tomorrow.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 24:06:49 N Lon : 112:48:46 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 959.0mb/ 97.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.8 6.3
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -44.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.6 degrees
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 24:06:49 N Lon : 112:48:46 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 959.0mb/ 97.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.8 6.3
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -44.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.6 degrees
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- Yellow Evan
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Re:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Reminds me a bit, I mean a BIT of Hurricane Raymond last year, and this obviously has a different track. It reminds me of Raymond because of an unexpected RI (?) and that it had a sudden "pinhole" eye popping out, surrounded by ominously thick and cold convection, which made it a major. I dunno if Norbert will officially be a major, but I think it can.
Raymond 13 wasn't that unexpected RI wise. Norbert 14 was. You are probably thinking this because both are small.
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 24:09:00 N Lon : 112:51:17 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 955.2mb/102.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.8 6.4
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -34.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.1C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.6 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 24:09:00 N Lon : 112:51:17 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 955.2mb/102.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.8 6.4
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -34.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.1C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.6 degrees
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Agreed, looks like about 110 kt, and I would expect a Special Advisory by 05-06Z at this rate.
Unless they want to suddenly revise the warnings (they IMO should), there's no need, but SMN does not like messing with the warnings late at night.
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Agreed, looks like about 110 kt, and I would expect a Special Advisory by 05-06Z at this rate.
Agreed. Last time I called for a special Advisory, it didn't pan out. Maybe this time it will be warranted for due to its proximity to land.
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