BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 93.6W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM TUXPAN NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014
An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
low pressure area over the southwest Gulf of Mexico found a
well-defined center of circulation. The system has a curved band of
deep convection that wraps around the southern and eastern portions
of the circulation. Thus the system is being designated as a
tropical depression at this time. The maximum winds reported by the
aircraft so far support an intensity of 25 kt. Although the
cyclone is situated over very warm waters of near 30 deg C, the
atmospheric environment is not ideal for strengthening. Dynamical
models indicate that significant northerly to northwesterly
vertical shear should affect the tropical cyclone for the next 36
hours and this is likely to limit intensification up to landfall.
After landfall, dissipation should be quick due to the mountainous
terrain of Mexico. The official wind speed forecast is a little
above the intensity model consensus.
The initial motion is west-northwestward or around 295/11. The
steering scenario appears to be fairly straightforward. The flow
to the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast should maintain a west-northwestward track for the next 36
hours, i.e. through the expected time of landfall. The official
track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model
consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 20.1N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 21.1N 94.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 21.9N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 22.4N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
Forecaster Pasch
ATL: DOLLY - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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ATL: DOLLY - Advisories
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 139168
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
700 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014
...DEPRESSION MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 93.7W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.
A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
700 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014
...DEPRESSION MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 93.7W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.
A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139168
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 93.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014
The depression appears to be gradually organizing this evening as
deep convection has developed over the eastern portion of the large
circulation. Last-light visible satellite pictures suggested that
the center of the depression has likely reformed farther north,
which is not surprising given that the depression is still in its
formative stage. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the depression in a few hours, and this
should assist in determining the center position overnight. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial wind speed of
25 kt.
Although the depression is forecast to strengthen some on Tuesday,
moderate northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to
inhibit significant intensification before landfall. None of the
reliable intensity models show much strengthening and the NHC
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory.
The somewhat uncertain initial motion is 310/9 kt. The dynamical
model guidance indicate that the depression will turn west-
northwestward on Tuesday to the south of a mid-level ridge along the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario and the NHC track is close to the middle of the
guidance envelope. The updated NHC forecast track is slightly north
of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position.
Once inland, the cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate over the
mountains of eastern Mexico.
The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, which is likely to cause flash-flooding and mud slides
over portions of eastern Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 21.0N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 21.7N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 22.3N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 22.7N 98.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 93.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014
The depression appears to be gradually organizing this evening as
deep convection has developed over the eastern portion of the large
circulation. Last-light visible satellite pictures suggested that
the center of the depression has likely reformed farther north,
which is not surprising given that the depression is still in its
formative stage. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the depression in a few hours, and this
should assist in determining the center position overnight. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial wind speed of
25 kt.
Although the depression is forecast to strengthen some on Tuesday,
moderate northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to
inhibit significant intensification before landfall. None of the
reliable intensity models show much strengthening and the NHC
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory.
The somewhat uncertain initial motion is 310/9 kt. The dynamical
model guidance indicate that the depression will turn west-
northwestward on Tuesday to the south of a mid-level ridge along the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario and the NHC track is close to the middle of the
guidance envelope. The updated NHC forecast track is slightly north
of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position.
Once inland, the cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate over the
mountains of eastern Mexico.
The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, which is likely to cause flash-flooding and mud slides
over portions of eastern Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 21.0N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 21.7N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 22.3N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 22.7N 98.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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tropicwatch
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 020549
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
100 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMEPECHE...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
RE-LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
NOAA BUOY DATA NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST. DOLLY
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND
DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL DOLLY MAKES LANDFALL.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BERG
WTNT35 KNHC 020549
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
100 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMEPECHE...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
RE-LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
NOAA BUOY DATA NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST. DOLLY
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND
DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL DOLLY MAKES LANDFALL.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BERG
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
cyclone early this morning found 925 mb flight-level winds of 50-53
kt in the northeast quadrant and adjusted SFMR winds of at least 40
kt. In addition, two ASCAT overpasses at 0313 UTC and 0406 UTC
indicated surface winds of 40-41 kt in the eastern quadrant. Based
on these wind data, the intensity has been increased to 40 kt,
making the cyclone the fourth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic
hurricane season. These wind data also required the initial
position to be relocated about 60 nmi north of the previous track.
The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/12 kt, which is
based on a blend of passive microwave, scatterometer, and
conventional satellite fix data. Other than the northward relocation
of the center position, the forecast track reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous advisories. The tropical storm is
expected to gradually turn more toward the west-northwest as Dolly
skirts along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge that
is located across most of the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern
United States. Landfall along the northeastern coast of Mexico is
expected in about 24 hours, followed by dissipation in 48 hours
over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The
NHC forecast track is similar to the consensus model TVCA, and lies
roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope.
About 20 kt of north-northwesterly vertical shear is affecting
Dolly, which has resulted in most of the convection being displaced
well to the south and east of the exposed low-level circulation.
However, new convection has recently developed near and just to the
southeast of the center, and with the shear forecast to decrease to
about 15 kt during the next 12 hours, some additional slight
strengthening is possible before Dolly makes landfall.
The surface wind data from the reconnaissance aircraft and the
two scatterometer passes indicate that the tropical-storm-force wind
field has expanded significantly in the eastern semicircle. Since
the pressure gradient between Dolly and the large high over the
Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain quite strong for the next 36
hours or so, the Government of Mexico has extended the tropical
storm warning area northward to Barra El Mezquital. However, no
additional northward extension of the warning area appears likely
at this time.
The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, which is likely to cause flash flooding and mud slides
over portions of eastern Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 22.6N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 23.1N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 23.7N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 24.1N 98.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
cyclone early this morning found 925 mb flight-level winds of 50-53
kt in the northeast quadrant and adjusted SFMR winds of at least 40
kt. In addition, two ASCAT overpasses at 0313 UTC and 0406 UTC
indicated surface winds of 40-41 kt in the eastern quadrant. Based
on these wind data, the intensity has been increased to 40 kt,
making the cyclone the fourth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic
hurricane season. These wind data also required the initial
position to be relocated about 60 nmi north of the previous track.
The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/12 kt, which is
based on a blend of passive microwave, scatterometer, and
conventional satellite fix data. Other than the northward relocation
of the center position, the forecast track reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous advisories. The tropical storm is
expected to gradually turn more toward the west-northwest as Dolly
skirts along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge that
is located across most of the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern
United States. Landfall along the northeastern coast of Mexico is
expected in about 24 hours, followed by dissipation in 48 hours
over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The
NHC forecast track is similar to the consensus model TVCA, and lies
roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope.
About 20 kt of north-northwesterly vertical shear is affecting
Dolly, which has resulted in most of the convection being displaced
well to the south and east of the exposed low-level circulation.
However, new convection has recently developed near and just to the
southeast of the center, and with the shear forecast to decrease to
about 15 kt during the next 12 hours, some additional slight
strengthening is possible before Dolly makes landfall.
The surface wind data from the reconnaissance aircraft and the
two scatterometer passes indicate that the tropical-storm-force wind
field has expanded significantly in the eastern semicircle. Since
the pressure gradient between Dolly and the large high over the
Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain quite strong for the next 36
hours or so, the Government of Mexico has extended the tropical
storm warning area northward to Barra El Mezquital. However, no
additional northward extension of the warning area appears likely
at this time.
The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, which is likely to cause flash flooding and mud slides
over portions of eastern Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 22.6N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 23.1N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 23.7N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 24.1N 98.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
700 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
...DOLLY HEADING TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 95.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK... THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
DOLLY MAKES LANDFALL.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
700 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
...DOLLY HEADING TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 95.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK... THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
DOLLY MAKES LANDFALL.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
...DOLLY CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 96.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING SOUTH OF CABO ROJO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...AND
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
North-northwesterly vertical shear continues to affect the tropical
storm, and the low-level center is located near the northwestern
edge of a large mass of deep convection. Arc clouds are also noted
to be propagating northward from the system which is indicative of
the presence of some dry air at mid levels. Based on observations
from the aircraft mission from earlier this morning, the current
intensity is held at 45 kt, which is a little above the latest
Dvorak estimates. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into
Dolly is scheduled in a few hours to check the intensity. Since the
system has been able to intensify overnight in spite of the shear,
some additional strengthening is certainly possible before
landfall. Weakening after the center moves inland could be more
rapid than indicated here, due to the mountainous terrain of
northeastern Mexico.
The motion has been somewhat faster than earlier estimates and is
now near 300/14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Dolly should
cause a continued west-northwestward motion for the next 24 hours
or so and, based on the faster initial motion, the center is likely
to cross the coast somewhat earlier than indicated in previous
advisories. The current official track forecast is a little ahead
of the model guidance but still shows a decrease in forward speed
through 36 hours.
The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 10 inches in a few
locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will
continue even after the center moves inland.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 23.4N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 24.0N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 24.5N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0000Z 24.8N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
...DOLLY CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 96.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING SOUTH OF CABO ROJO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...AND
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
North-northwesterly vertical shear continues to affect the tropical
storm, and the low-level center is located near the northwestern
edge of a large mass of deep convection. Arc clouds are also noted
to be propagating northward from the system which is indicative of
the presence of some dry air at mid levels. Based on observations
from the aircraft mission from earlier this morning, the current
intensity is held at 45 kt, which is a little above the latest
Dvorak estimates. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into
Dolly is scheduled in a few hours to check the intensity. Since the
system has been able to intensify overnight in spite of the shear,
some additional strengthening is certainly possible before
landfall. Weakening after the center moves inland could be more
rapid than indicated here, due to the mountainous terrain of
northeastern Mexico.
The motion has been somewhat faster than earlier estimates and is
now near 300/14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Dolly should
cause a continued west-northwestward motion for the next 24 hours
or so and, based on the faster initial motion, the center is likely
to cross the coast somewhat earlier than indicated in previous
advisories. The current official track forecast is a little ahead
of the model guidance but still shows a decrease in forward speed
through 36 hours.
The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 10 inches in a few
locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will
continue even after the center moves inland.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 23.4N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 24.0N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 24.5N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0000Z 24.8N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
...CENTER OF DOLLY REFORMING TO THE SOUTH...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 96.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF DOLLY IS REFORMING SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007
MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
...CENTER OF DOLLY REFORMING TO THE SOUTH...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 96.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF DOLLY IS REFORMING SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007
MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
Tracking the center of Dolly this afternoon has been, to say the
least, challenging. Aircraft and scatterometer wind data show that
the center of the storm reformed to the south of the previous track
and nearer to the middle of the deep convection. Flight-level and
SFMR observations support an initial intensity of about 40 kt.
Since the center is expected to move inland in less than 12 hours,
no significant change in strength is likely before landfall. Once
inland, Dolly should weaken fairly rapidly over the mountains of
northeastern Mexico and the system could dissipate even sooner than
indicated by the NHC forecast.
With the center relocation, it is extremely difficult to estimate
the initial motion, but my best guess is 270/10 kt. Despite the
complex small-scale motions, the large-scale steering pattern
remains roughly the same. A mid-tropospheric ridge near the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast should drive Dolly in a generally
westward direction over the next day or two. The official track
forecast has been shifted southward due to the center reformation.
This lies about in the middle of the track guidance model suite.
The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will
continue even after the center moves inland.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 22.0N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 22.0N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/1800Z 22.0N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
Tracking the center of Dolly this afternoon has been, to say the
least, challenging. Aircraft and scatterometer wind data show that
the center of the storm reformed to the south of the previous track
and nearer to the middle of the deep convection. Flight-level and
SFMR observations support an initial intensity of about 40 kt.
Since the center is expected to move inland in less than 12 hours,
no significant change in strength is likely before landfall. Once
inland, Dolly should weaken fairly rapidly over the mountains of
northeastern Mexico and the system could dissipate even sooner than
indicated by the NHC forecast.
With the center relocation, it is extremely difficult to estimate
the initial motion, but my best guess is 270/10 kt. Despite the
complex small-scale motions, the large-scale steering pattern
remains roughly the same. A mid-tropospheric ridge near the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast should drive Dolly in a generally
westward direction over the next day or two. The official track
forecast has been shifted southward due to the center reformation.
This lies about in the middle of the track guidance model suite.
The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will
continue even after the center moves inland.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 22.0N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 22.0N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/1800Z 22.0N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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cycloneye
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- Age: 67
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
700 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
...DOLLY NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 97.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING NORTH OF BOCA DE CATAN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO BOCA DE CATAN
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE MOVING INLAND
OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER DOLLY MOVES INLAND...AND THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
700 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
...DOLLY NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 97.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING NORTH OF BOCA DE CATAN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO BOCA DE CATAN
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE MOVING INLAND
OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER DOLLY MOVES INLAND...AND THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
Radar and surface data from Mexico show that the center of Dolly is
moving ashore just south of Tampico. The initial intensity remains
40 kt, which is in agreement with the earlier aircraft observations.
The minimum pressure is estimated to be 1002 mb based on dropsonde
data from both the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
the NASA Global Hawk. Dolly should begin to weaken overnight while
the circulation moves farther inland, and the cyclone is expected to
dissipate over the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico within
a day or so.
The initial motion estimate is 270/9 kt. Dolly is forecast to
continue moving generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge
until dissipation occurs. The new NHC track is similar to the
previous advisory and is close to the GFS model.
The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will
continue during the next day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 21.9N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 22.0N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0000Z 22.0N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
Radar and surface data from Mexico show that the center of Dolly is
moving ashore just south of Tampico. The initial intensity remains
40 kt, which is in agreement with the earlier aircraft observations.
The minimum pressure is estimated to be 1002 mb based on dropsonde
data from both the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
the NASA Global Hawk. Dolly should begin to weaken overnight while
the circulation moves farther inland, and the cyclone is expected to
dissipate over the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico within
a day or so.
The initial motion estimate is 270/9 kt. Dolly is forecast to
continue moving generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge
until dissipation occurs. The new NHC track is similar to the
previous advisory and is close to the GFS model.
The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will
continue during the next day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 21.9N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 22.0N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0000Z 22.0N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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cycloneye
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- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014
Satellite imagery, surface observations, and data from the Mexican
radar in Altamira indicate that Dolly has moved onshore between
Tampico and Cabo Rojo. The initial intensity is decreased to a
somewhat uncertain 35 kt, with these winds most likely occurring in
convective bands over water to the northeast of the center. Dolly
should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and the system
is expected to dissipate in 24-36 hours over the mountains of
central Mexico.
The initial motion is 265/7. Dolly is forecast to continue moving
generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge until it
dissipates.
The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will
continue during the next day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 21.8N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 03/1800Z 21.8N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 21.8N 100.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
Forecaster Beven
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014
Satellite imagery, surface observations, and data from the Mexican
radar in Altamira indicate that Dolly has moved onshore between
Tampico and Cabo Rojo. The initial intensity is decreased to a
somewhat uncertain 35 kt, with these winds most likely occurring in
convective bands over water to the northeast of the center. Dolly
should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and the system
is expected to dissipate in 24-36 hours over the mountains of
central Mexico.
The initial motion is 265/7. Dolly is forecast to continue moving
generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge until it
dissipates.
The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will
continue during the next day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 21.8N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 03/1800Z 21.8N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 21.8N 100.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
Forecaster Beven
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139168
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: DOLLY - Advisories
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
700 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014
...DOLLY WEAKENING INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 98.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WSW OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER
EASTERN MEXICO TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
700 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014
...DOLLY WEAKENING INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 98.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WSW OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER
EASTERN MEXICO TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014
Satellite imagery, surface observations, and data from the Mexican
radar in Altamira indicate that Dolly has moved onshore between
Tampico and Cabo Rojo. The initial intensity is decreased to a
somewhat uncertain 35 kt, with these winds most likely occurring in
convective bands over water to the northeast of the center. Dolly
should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and the system
is expected to dissipate in 24-36 hours over the mountains of
central Mexico.
The initial motion is 265/7. Dolly is forecast to continue moving
generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge until it
dissipates.
The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will
continue during the next day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 21.8N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 03/1800Z 21.8N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 21.8N 100.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
Forecaster Beven
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014
Satellite imagery, surface observations, and data from the Mexican
radar in Altamira indicate that Dolly has moved onshore between
Tampico and Cabo Rojo. The initial intensity is decreased to a
somewhat uncertain 35 kt, with these winds most likely occurring in
convective bands over water to the northeast of the center. Dolly
should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and the system
is expected to dissipate in 24-36 hours over the mountains of
central Mexico.
The initial motion is 265/7. Dolly is forecast to continue moving
generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge until it
dissipates.
The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will
continue during the next day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 21.8N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 03/1800Z 21.8N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 21.8N 100.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
Forecaster Beven
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