WPAC: INVEST 95W

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95W INVEST 140910 1200 12.6N 113.3E WPAC 15 1010

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
111.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 113.3E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING
THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A 101015Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS WANED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WHILE A PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS IN THE REGION SHOWED A
SURGE IN THE MONSOON SOUTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N
112.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 113.8E, APPROXIMATELY 371 NM EAST
OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. AN 110225Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. AN 110227Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 05 TO 10 KNOT CIRCULATION
WITH STRONGER (15 TO 20 KNOT) WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6N
115.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.