ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[tailgater]

It might have a low chance if the ULL can out run it moving westward. but as long as it's to the east or over 92L it's doomed

[HouTXmetro]

ULL looks to be just ESE of 92L.

[Stormcenter]

It's still hanging on. IMO

[baytownwx]

Starting to fire a small amount of convection and trying to wrap
it around. Is this going to be the "Little Engine that Could" or is the big bad wolf going to huff and puff and blow his house down

[HouTXmetro]

Those last few looks like it might be opening up. I just don't see how it can sustain itself void of convection.

[davidiowx]

Yea it sure does. I would say it is certainly opening up. Any convection trying is being torn apart as soon as it builds upwards.

[Craters]

Not wanting to get off topic or anything, but does anybody remember so many potential storms getting clobbered by dry air in one season, or is it just me? Last year was pretty bad, but I don't remember it being like this.

Looks to me like 92L can't even keep its LLC going without it reforming now.

[tropicwatch]

There is that one band of 20kt wind shear that has stayed with 92L all day.

[Nimbus]

The Atlantic has been dry with lots of SAL but the gulf of Mexico was moist until This ULL pulled all the dry air down.
Without convection 92L is just spreading out Buoy 42003 is off line but 42001 at mid gulf shows pressure of 1014 mb's.
Pressure gradient might be getting too shallow but we won't know till it passes the mid gulf buoy.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

I'll guess 1012 mb's with winds under 20 knots before the wind flip.

[wxman57]

Looks like 92L is history. Very little (if any) low-level convergence. Swirl is weakening. I don't think it will survive to reach Texas.

[baytownwx]

That's all I have to say about that

[floridasun78]

Looks like 92L is history. Very little (if any) low-level convergence. Swirl is weakening. I don't think it will survive to reach Texas.

i agree it over 92l

[tropicwatch]

The front has stalled and moisture is moving south into the gulf. I wander if 92L will benefit from it.

[davidiowx]

The front has stalled and moisture is moving south into the gulf. I wander if 92L will benefit from it.

I believe it is a little too late. 92L tried all day but it's done in my opinion.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

I have a feeling this thing is going to ramp up again. Looks like moisture is being pulled to it from all sides now.

[Hammy]

I have a feeling this thing is going to ramp up again. Looks like moisture is being pulled to it from all sides now.

A few of the models do in fact have this developing about 2-3 days out once it gets close to the Texas coast.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

I have a feeling this thing is going to ramp up again. Looks like moisture is being pulled to it from all sides now.

A few of the models do in fact have this developing about 2-3 days out once it gets close to the Texas coast.

I think it will show signs of developing and looking more impressive by tomorrow morning. The shear is bad where it is now but that feature to its east is approaching faster and bringing moisture and that front to the north just broke off a piece of moisture.

[cycloneye]

The area of low pressure located over the east-central Gulf of
Mexico has continued to become less defined this afternoon and the
associated shower activity is minimal. Upper-level winds are not
conducive for development, and the low will most likely degenerate
into a trough of low pressure while it moves westward across the
Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[Rail Dawg]

I flew right past this disturbance as a pilot twice today. Heading east in the afternoon it seemed to have collapsed quite a bit. Earlier this morning it was much more concentrated and we diverted north quite a bit.

Chuck

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Could the center be relocating further south and east? It looks to be so on the last few loops or am I seeing things?