ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[davidiowx]

I just can't imagine how it would totally reverse it's track like those models are showing. I don't buy that happening at all. Obviously anything is possible but IMO that isn't going to happen. At least while it it still over the water. I think those models are still anticipating the front coming further South than it will.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like someone threw a boomerang.

[Stormcenter]

Think hurricane Elena.

I just can't imagine how it would totally reverse it's track like those models are showing. I don't buy that happening at all. Obviously anything is possible but IMO that isn't going to happen. At least while it it still over the water. I think those models are still anticipating the front coming further South than it will.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

hurricane juan-Oct 1985-remember it was like yesterday. i was 8 at the time. they said it was going to texas, and boy was my dad glad. we had just replace everything we had lost to danny in the same year. the water was at the door, but that was normal back then before the levee was built.

my grandpa called and told my dad to leave that juan was drifting back to us. he only decided to leave bc i was scared out my little mind. he had to take us by boat to the car and we passed that storm in his old shrimp boat.

in the end, we lost every again but bc it was a get up and go situation we lost all of pics and important papers that didnt get damaged the first time. Only a selected few hanging high on the wall survived. 4-5ft of water! so never think a storm cant do a loop around and bite you while your head is turned!

[Nimbus]

I was kind of hoping 92L would stay shallow enough that it would come back to Florida and give us some rain for the winter wells.
Mexico doesn't need a cat 3.

Nobody needs a Cat 3, but 1. where did you see a Cat 3 and 2. where did you see Mexico?

Weak tropical systems that don't have an insulating high pressure ridge have to merge with an approaching trough at most levels so they are essentially steered or totally disrupted..

The green Deep layer BAMD predicts the track of a well stacked system that has well established outflow in the upper atmosphere.
High volume outflow from a major hurricane actually pumps a ridge of high pressure the trough cannot steer.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

hurricane juan-Oct 1985-remember it was like yesterday. i was 8 at the time. they said it was going to texas, and boy was my dad glad. we had just replace everything we had lost to danny in the same year. the water was at the door, but that was normal back then before the levee was built.

my grandpa called and told my dad to leave that juan was drifting back to us. he only decided to leave bc i was scared out my little mind. he had to take us by boat to the car and we passed that storm in his old shrimp boat.

in the end, we lost every again but bc it was a get up and go situation we lost all of pics and important papers that didnt get damaged the first time. Only a selected few hanging high on the wall survived. 4-5ft of water! so never think a storm cant do a loop around and bite you while your head is turned!

[davidiowx]

I have no doubt it is not out of the realm of possibilities, but those storms were close to 30 years ago.. Given the technology we have now and etc., I would think we would know that is going to happen since it would take a strong trough or ULL to come down to recurve it right?

[Steve]

hurricane juan-Oct 1985-remember it was like yesterday. i was 8 at the time. they said it was going to texas, and boy was my dad glad. we had just replace everything we had lost to danny in the same year. the water was at the door, but that was normal back then before the levee was built.

Off topic, but...

Yeah, the streets in NOLA kept filling up every few hours only to drain back off. I usually enjoy tropical days, but after 3 days or so, Juan got tedious. Steering currents collapsed, and it just spun around down itn the Gulf. Juan ended up dragging down a cold front and ushering in the fall.

When we evacuated the Bayou for Gustav in 2008, a lot of the old timers in Central Lafourche were talking about not having seen water since Juan (above Golden Meadow). A creepy thing about Juan was I remember the news reporting on all the caskets that were popping up out of the ground and floating open through the flood waters. I had to remind many of them that they weren't surrounded by water as much in 1985 as they were in 2008 which was a point that many of them hadn't really considered. Luck had it that they only got Cat 1 conditions in South Lafourche and South Terrebonne, with maybe a couple of tornados. And you guys in Montegut/Klondyke areas I recall got a terrible storm surge from Ike, flooding almost 10,000 residences which was lost in the coverage of the destruction in and around Galveston. But I was like, damn, this is a couple hundred miles offshore and flooding South Terrebonne as it passed to the South. So it's dicey any time anything of substance is passing to your near south.

On topic - GFS 12Z pretty much keeps a daily 24 hour (preceding) precip rate of between .25" and 1.25" in SELA. If that holds, it's going to rain every day for a while. And while it does eventually put a "L" in the North Gulf kind of dancing around, it brings in a much stronger system earlier than it has been doing (9/20 which would be 6 days) out of the Caribbean that moves into the Northeastern Gulf. It has been hinting for several weeks at the end of its runs that a big system would come up and affect the Gulf (possibly followed by another one thereafter). But this is next weekend. So if it verifies to some extent, we'll be watching the Gulf of Mexico for at least the next 10-14 days.

NAM 12Z simulated radar shows a spinnnig system moving into or near LA at the end of its run. It hit the TX/MX surge, so I'm inclined to trust that there will be some spin with 92L regardless of whether it hits LA, TX or no where

[cigtyme]

I was 12 for Juan, Is there a better Model for each different thing? Like one for cyclogenisis, one for steering, one for strength, etc etc?

[Senobia]

Retreating recurve gone from this graphic.



All kinds of loops here, tho lol.

[Senobia]

And here's a graphic from Twitter, courtesy of Hurricane Tracker App (?)

[ronyan]

GFS ensembles are literally all over the place.

[Steve]

I was 12 for Juan, Is there a better Model for each different thing? Like one for cyclogenisis, one for steering, one for strength, etc etc?

There isn't really an easy answer for that. I'm not schooled enough in the statistics to answer other than to say that the ECMWF/European doesn't often show genesis but tends to be better with long-term solutions of existing storms now that its leftward bias has been apparently cleared up. GFS is better with Genesis but used to always overdo troughs in the Western Atlantic, also has somewhat been cleared up on that. CMC spins up everything, usually phantom storms. NAM is okay north of the Tropical Regions. FIM is debatable. TVCN, GONU and other multi-model compilations are often used by the NHC which tends to take an averaging approach to models they feel are performing best in a given situation. All models can be right from time to time and all of them can be ridiculously out to lunch. Every once in a while (e.g. UKMET for Ivan Part 2), a model will pick up on a pattern or aspect of a pattern that no other model sees. Then the next time they put out a stupid solution. I, otherwise, don't have an answer to your question.


FWIW, QPF 12Z has the bulk of the next 7 days rain in 3 locations: East of Apalachacola, Mexican side of the Rio Grande Valley and off the coast of South Padre Island.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1410549841

[cigtyme]

Thanks, I guess i will be doing a lil research

[MONTEGUT_LA]

i agree when it is close to the coast, it is less time to prepared and some ppl dont get the memo in time.

[Puddinhead]

Off, OFF topic, I guess:

Sort of funny story about Juan...I'm a long-time Saints season ticket holder here in New Orleans, and they had a home game the weekend Juan was piddling around just off the La. coast, trying to make up his mind where he'd go. The game was not postponed, and since it was the Superdome and all we figured we wouldn't be sitting outside in the weather...why not go? We always parked six or seven blocks away on the street, but all things considered we figured we'd try to find a garage for this particular game. Traffic's at a standstill on Poydras Street in front of the Dome, umbrellas are being turned inside out and blown out of people's hands, gusty winds blowing intermittent sheets of driving rain--real tropical weather. We turn into the City Hall parking garage essentially across the street from the stadium, really thankful we've found a protected parking place so close still with open spaces. Pay our $25 (1985 prices) and get directed up the first ramp, then up the second...then another, and another. We kept being directed upward until we went up one more ramp...and realized we were being parked on the roof. In the open. In a tropical storm. LOL

[pledger28]

Can we please stay on topic. I have come to this page several times today to read about 92l and end up seeing information and stories about Juan. Rant over...

[Puddinhead]

Sorry.

[Steve]

Mods will put things back on topic. Sometimes a situation may remind someone of something they might want to share. It's harmless. Other storm sites were ruined by over rigidity, and S2k strikes a fair balance (usually). Having said that, ignoring a quick off topic post that is labeled as such isn't jerkish at all. Acting like the police...

Anyway, 18z models like a hook toward SW LA. I'm not seeing any real intensification with any of them running precip, simulated radars or anything, so I don't wonder if anything at all comes out of 92l.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[Steve]

Though some of the tropicals like South Texas. 00z BAMS are strange.