ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[gatorcane]

The NAVY model (NAVGEM) now closes it off, like the ECMWF. 24 hours below. Interesting...

[Blown Away]

We will have a good idea how much weight these models are being given if the development percentages go up at 2pm...

[gatorcane]

By the way the rest of the NAVGEM track is showing something similar to what the GEM was showing yesterday with a W then NW-N track to near the North Central Gulf coast then a sharp bend east and back into Florida...though weaker than that scary GEM run...

[Alyono]

making WAY too much of the fact that the models show a closed low

IT ALREADY HAS A CLOSED LOW!!!!!!

It needs convection

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: We will have a good idea how much weight these models are being given if the development percentages go up at 2pm...

euro and gfs and even with those two in this situation they will dial it down a bit...this thing has not been able to hold convection...cant imagine they are getting too excited about this other then the fact its close to the homeland

[WPBWeather]

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits · Sep 8

12z CMC showing TD into Florida in 4 days is a joke. 12z ECMWF on other hand showing a hurricane from 91L out to sea - first time this year.
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I like LC and read him regularly, but it goes to show the even long time bloggers and Pro Mets should be circumspect with their pronouncements.

[Hammy]

I think there is a problem among a lot of people regarding the Canadian model, no model is wrong 100% of the time but this model is treated as if it is, so anything it shows is automatically disregarded, despite it being better at picking up smaller-scale systems.

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM has a strengthening TS offshore LA in 108 hours:

[gatorcane]

Makes a hard right turn along the northern Gulf Coast and looks like a hurricane into the Big Bend of Florida at 150 hours:

[Kohlecane]

Makes a hard right turn along the northern Gulf Coast and looks like a hurricane into the Big Bend of Florida at 150 hours:

2 days of Presistent Model...Id say at this point anyone from Houston to Tampa keep your eye out

[gatorcane]

GEM 174 hours. Could be an east coast runner...

[Stormcenter]

These are some crazy tracks. IMO

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not for that model

[jhpigott]

Has the 12z Euro run yet?

[tolakram]

It's running and did not show anything.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014091112&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=000

[Blown Away]

18z...

[NDG]

Today's 12z run is probably the most aggressive I have seen it with this system, not that it strengthens that much.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

[Hammy]

Today's 12z run is probably the most aggressive I have seen it with this system, not that it strengthens that much.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

I'm in a wait-and-watch mode as the models do not have a history of doing too well with small systems.

[artist]

[artist]

hour 144 into Texas