EPAC: INVEST 98E

#2 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Sep 15, 2014 5:11 pm

where is this?

supercane4867 · #3 Postby **supercane4867** » Mon Sep 15, 2014 5:16 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:where is this?

A weak area of low pressure located about 1400 miles east-southeast
of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
while the low moves generally northwestward during the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

#4 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Sep 15, 2014 6:07 pm

I think the GFS develops it in a TD and moves it slowly over 140w.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 15, 2014 6:48 pm

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii have become slightly better organized. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while the low moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

TheStormExpert · #6 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Sep 15, 2014 9:36 pm

How come at this point in the season it becomes uncommon to see systems form in this area and track west into the C. Pacific towards the Hawaiian Islands?

#7 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Sep 15, 2014 9:47 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:How come at this point in the season it becomes uncommon to see systems form in this area and track west into the C. Pacific towards the Hawaiian Islands?

More shear and dry air there. And systems that develop early get carried away by troughs that are digging deeper.

#8 Postby **Kingarabian** » Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:32 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:How come at this point in the season it becomes uncommon to see systems form in this area and track west into the C. Pacific towards the Hawaiian Islands?

More shear and dry air there. And systems that develop early get carried away by troughs that are digging deeper.

I think the former only counts towards storms moving from east to west. The latter is certainly true. Mainly it's because there is no high to push anything west.

Storms can still track from east to west, just not as frequent.

#9 Postby **somethingfunny** » Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:25 am

We're only about a week beyond the anniversary of Hurricane Iniki, so it's not like the CPAC season is over yet. Plus storms have been known to affect Hawaii as late as November (Hurricane Iwa did) and even December. I doubt that 98E is a threat to Hawaii but the season's far from over.

In fact, December and August have an equal likelihood of a tropical cyclone impacting Hawaii based on history - so from that perspective, the season has just barely begun!

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ ... d_by_month

#10 Postby **somethingfunny** » Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:33 am

Not entirely sure where this went, but NRL deactivated it.

EPAC: INVEST 98E

EPAC: INVEST 98E

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