ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Another Invest way north of MDR.

AL, 98, 2014100106, , BEST, 0, 310N, 560W, 30, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 90, 30, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2014100112, , BEST, 0, 325N, 550W, 30, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 90, 30, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2014100118, , BEST, 0, 339N, 541W, 30, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 90, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

[cycloneye]

SSD Floater is up

[TheStormExpert]

Is this the area that was originally 97L which the NHC is now mentioning again I think? I'm really confused??

[cycloneye]

Is this the area that was originally 97L which the NHC is now mentioning again I think? I'm really confused??

New area well east of Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT TWO:

A small area of low pressure located about 700 miles east-northeast
of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Significant development of this system is not expected while it
remains over marginally warm waters through Thursday. This low is
moving rapidly toward the northeast and is expected to move over
much colder waters by Friday, ending its chance of development as a
tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Hammy]

Hard to tell if it's closed or not on satellite due to how fast it's moving.

[CrazyC83]

These types of storms tend to often be sleepers though - the ones that develop unexpectedly. Conditions in the high Atlantic are no more unfavorable than in a good year (as in, they aren't ever "ideal").

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2014100200, , BEST, 0, 352N, 529W, 30, 1012, LO

[TheStormExpert]

These types of storms tend to often be sleepers though - the ones that develop unexpectedly. Conditions in the high Atlantic are no more unfavorable than in a good year (as in, they aren't ever "ideal").

Conditions in this part of the Atlantic have not been much more ideal if you ask me than they have been in the other parts of the Atlantic, otherwise we could of seen a storm or two develop in this region already IMO.

[cycloneye]

A small area of low pressure located about 840 miles northeast
of Bermuda is moving rapidly toward the north-northeast and
is producing disorganized showers. Tropical cyclone formation is not
anticipated due to strong upper-level winds and decreasing sea
surface temperatures.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[cycloneye]

ATCF deactivated the invest.

[TheStormExpert]

Not saying these invests are wasteful to be tagged, but why tag something an invest if it will only live 24-48hrs. at most? IMO it seems kind of silly, and I used to think they only tagged areas of interest that had some promising chance of developing?

[wxman57]

Not saying these invests are wasteful to be tagged, but why tag something an invest if it will only live 24-48hrs. at most? IMO it seems kind of silly, and I used to think they only tagged areas of interest that had some promising chance of developing?

Initiating an invest doesn't mean anything other than the forecaster on duty wants to run some models on a feature. There is no requirement of development potential. Sometimes they may declare an invest simply to test software upgrades, or perhaps it could be to training exercise. There are valid reasons to initiate an invest for a system that isn't expected to develop.

[SapphireSea]

I would figure that most of these supercomputing resources stay idle more than 90% of the time which is the case with many SCs. I believe the invest tag really may be some bureaucracy that is loose in order to access computing resources despite the aforementioned fact. Also, these features could become large extratropical/gale features in which I assume is shared or available for other mets to process; inefficiency to create efficiency I suppose.

I would figure the actual cost to us is nearly nil to tag an invest. No complaints from me. I think its onward to Carrib; and close down ATL's shop for the year with the 2nd or 3rd longwave after this one.