ATL: GONZALO - Models

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

None of major status or at least none that fit the bill. I think there was Ike correct? I do not think it done a lot of damage.

Absolutely false. Rita 2005 and Ike 2008 which had a Category 4 surge across SE Texas and did billions in damage across a large portion of the US from flooding inland rains and wind damage across the Ohio Valley

I did not know Rita and Ike were category 4 storms guess I am wrong there but Katrina hit in the same year as Rita so throw out that season. Since that season Ike is it.

[Frank2]

Of course what came behinbd Katrina - Rita and Wilma (I was in a hotel for over a week because of Wilma)...

[Frank2]

As for Gonzalo it seems the cold front forecast to pass through here this week will keep the system away from here (my opinion only). The GFS shows that, as well...

[pgoss11]

As for Gonzalo it seems the cold front forecast to pass through here this week will keep the system away from here (my opinion only). The GFS shows that, as well...

Our local mets here in Charleston SC say this too. Should be steered away from the US coast even before it gets to the SE Bahamas.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Is there any way that the models are wrong and this front or trough moving through is not as strong as they say?

[pgoss11]

Is there any way that the models are wrong and this front or trough moving through is not as strong as they say?

I'm not a met but they are pretty confident this is a very strong cold front expected to even reach Florida by the middle of the week.

[RL3AO]

Is there any way that the models are wrong and this front or trough moving through is not as strong as they say?

The front is going to be very strong. In fact, it will likely be responsible for a quite a round of severe weather tomorrow over AR/MS/TN/AL.

[Hammy]

I did not know Rita and Ike were category 4 storms guess I am wrong there but Katrina hit in the same year as Rita so throw out that season. Since that season Ike is it.

Rita was 115 mph at landfall (Cat 3) and Ike 110 (Cat 2) but due to Rita's intensity prior and Ike's large size and slow movement, they brought surges well over what one would expect for their intensities.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Is there any way that the models are wrong and this front or trough moving through is not as strong as they say?

The front is going to be very strong. In fact, it will likely be responsible for a quite a round of severe weather tomorrow over AR/MS/TN/AL.

Okay thanks are they ever wrong about the intensity of these fronts ahead of time? Or are they usually spot on about where they will go and how strong they are.

[gatorcane]

Is there any way that the models are wrong and this front or trough moving through is not as strong as they say?

The front is going to be very strong. In fact, it will likely be responsible for a quite a round of severe weather tomorrow over AR/MS/TN/AL.

The cold front is being caused by an H5 low pressure area that is supposed to develop across the upper Mississippi valley that according to the GEFS models will cause heights to fall to 3 standard deviations below normal. That means the front is something we would typically see in November or even December not October that should sweep across the U.S. this week.

[RL3AO]

Is there any way that the models are wrong and this front or trough moving through is not as strong as they say?

The front is going to be very strong. In fact, it will likely be responsible for a quite a round of severe weather tomorrow over AR/MS/TN/AL.

Okay thanks are they ever wrong about the intensity of these fronts ahead of time? Or are they usually spot on about where they will go and how strong they are.

Oh sure. But we are looking a front that has already formed and will be moving over the next few days. Could be something where the timing is off by 6-12 hours a few days out, but I can't see something massively changing with it.

As someone above me mentioned. This is a very impressive fall system over the central US.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF really ramps this up as it heads out to sea between the Bahamas and Bermuda (the golden area for systems to gain strength this season).

[TJRE]

OPC 48hr surface cast
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif

I would keep an eye on that old school 1020mb line

-the rule is that the 1020mb pressures create
a block that most storms don't move into
lets see how this plays out

highlighted for clarity


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1829 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO (AL082014) 20141012 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
141012 1800 141013 0600 141013 1800 141014 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 58.7W 16.6N 60.7W 17.3N 62.9W 18.1N 64.9W
BAMD 16.4N 58.7W 16.6N 60.8W 17.3N 62.6W 18.4N 64.2W
BAMM 16.4N 58.7W 16.8N 60.8W 17.5N 62.9W 18.6N 64.7W
LBAR 16.4N 58.7W 16.5N 60.8W 17.2N 63.0W 18.2N 65.3W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 59KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
141014 1800 141015 1800 141016 1800 141017 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 66.8W 21.5N 69.2W 23.3N 69.0W 25.1N 64.6W
BAMD 19.8N 65.6W 22.5N 67.6W 24.7N 67.4W 28.2N 64.1W
BAMM 19.9N 66.3W 22.3N 68.1W 24.4N 67.7W 27.3N 63.9W
LBAR 19.5N 67.3W 22.5N 70.0W 24.3N 70.0W 27.4N 66.9W
SHIP 69KTS 86KTS 100KTS 107KTS
DSHP 65KTS 82KTS 95KTS 102KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 58.7W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 56.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 55.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM

[vbhoutex]

No doubt a fish which has oddly been the case for any storm of promise threatening the US since Katrina.

First of all what is "any storm of promise"?
2nd broad statements like that without back up tend to come back and bite you.
3rd there have been several storms that did not curve and ended up impacting Mexico. My statement is based on the fact that I consider any TC "a storm of promise"(I don't really like that phrase).
4th let's keep this thread about Gonzalo and not wander off course here(which I just realized I am doing her).

[RL3AO]

No doubt a fish which has oddly been the case for any storm of promise threatening the US since Katrina.

First of all what is "any storm of promise"?
2nd broad statements like that without back up tend to come back and bite you.
3rd there have been several storms that did not curve and ended up impacting Mexico. My statement is based on the fact that I consider any TC "a storm of promise"(I don't really like that phrase).
4th let's keep this thread about Gonzalo and not wander off course here(which I just realized I am doing her).

Looks like a fish to me...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST.MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST.MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

[cycloneye]

Updated.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1938 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO (AL082014) 20141012 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
141012 1800 141013 0600 141013 1800 141014 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 59.0W 16.6N 61.0W 17.2N 63.2W 18.0N 65.2W
BAMD 16.4N 59.0W 16.6N 61.0W 17.2N 62.8W 18.3N 64.4W
BAMM 16.4N 59.0W 16.7N 61.1W 17.4N 63.2W 18.4N 65.0W
LBAR 16.4N 59.0W 16.6N 61.2W 17.2N 63.5W 18.3N 65.8W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS 58KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
141014 1800 141015 1800 141016 1800 141017 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 67.1W 21.3N 69.4W 23.0N 69.1W 24.6N 64.7W
BAMD 19.7N 65.8W 22.4N 67.6W 24.6N 67.4W 27.9N 64.0W
BAMM 19.7N 66.5W 22.1N 68.2W 24.2N 67.6W 27.0N 63.8W
LBAR 19.6N 67.9W 22.5N 70.6W 24.3N 70.7W 27.4N 67.2W
SHIP 68KTS 85KTS 99KTS 107KTS
DSHP 62KTS 79KTS 93KTS 100KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 59.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 56.9W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 55.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

No doubt a fish which has oddly been the case for any storm of promise threatening the US since Katrina.

First of all what is "any storm of promise"?
2nd broad statements like that without back up tend to come back and bite you.
3rd there have been several storms that did not curve and ended up impacting Mexico. My statement is based on the fact that I consider any TC "a storm of promise"(I don't really like that phrase).
4th let's keep this thread about Gonzalo and not wander off course here(which I just realized I am doing her).

I put that little disclaimer at the bottom to let everyone know I am no meteorologist so it is my OPINION. You know something I am supposed to voice. You need to chill out it is a fish for the US coast every model says so and every single weather person I see talking about it says so. If there was even a chance of it not turning they would of said something by now.

P.S I do not want NOBODY to suffer from a storm so when I say promise I say it as in the STORM AND ITS ABILITY TO BE A STRONG STORM. Not that it has promise to kill if that is what you are implying. People on this board come off as jerks sometimes.

[CrazyC83]

This is NOT a fish storm...it is going to hit land.

Also that 959mb low is Fay?

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

This is NOT a fish storm...it is going to hit land.

Also that 959mb low is Fay?

By fish I mean the US Mainland and I do feel for the people in the Caribbean Islands. At least according to the models right?