ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Now the debate will begin again over the landfall intensity. 95 kt seems most reasonable again with the stronger backside, but any stronger winds opens back up 100 kt.

I have the weather channel on at the moment and heard 112 mph, assuming this is sustained given the 108 mph mentioned on here earlier.

Other than the airport, the stations are elevated about 200 to 350 feet above sea level so they are not entirely representative of the intensity. 112 mph sustained at St. David's would be about 100 mph sustained at standard elevation (accounting for the wind averaging period).

[Alyono]

the people also live at those slightly elevated locations. That's what matters, not some academic argument

[NDG]

Latest from BWS facebook page:

We are evacuating the observer's area as we have lost our storm shutter that faces south.

[CrazyC83]

Latest from BWS facebook page:

We are evacuating the observer's area as we have lost our storm shutter that faces south.

May God be with everyone...

[ozonepete]

That's that back side band. Probably some forcing from the front.

I know it's tempting to suspect that, but the front was not involved in increasing or decreasing winds in the hurricane circulation and still isn't. Look at the OPC Atlantic analysis. With so much going on I don't have time to show it now.

[CrazyC83]

In many storms, the back side is just as strong - or stronger - than the front side eyewall. This is one of them.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

For those who don't want to use Java on Bermuda's site, a saved image:

[floridasun78]

For those who don't want to use Java on Bermuda's site, a saved image:

ty i one dont use java

[ozonepete]

the people also live at those slightly elevated locations. That's what matters, not some academic argument

You have a point. We have to keep the two separated.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Saved images:

[CrazyC83]

Wind gusts to 145 mph will likely flatten weaker buildings. Even well built buildings will likely be damaged. That is like an EF-3 tornado going over the hills.

[NDG]

Finally the winds are starting to go down in Bermuda during the past 10-20 minutes but still at hurricane force.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

ty i one dont use java

I don't either, I'm uninstalling it when done.

[Macrocane]

Gonzalo reminds us that it only takes one to make a season nasty. It must be a horrible night in Bermuda, I hope the damages are the less possible.

[ozonepete]

In many storms, the back side is just as strong - or stronger - than the front side eyewall. This is one of them.

Yup. From either the satellite or radar presentations you could see how that was going to happen. The eyewall was squeezed on the south side and this concentrated winds there. It is quite common in TCs accelerating around that latitude.

[Alyono]

seeing unconfirmed reports of sustained cat 3 winds

[TheStormExpert]

Default iPhone weather app currently shows 93mph winds out of the West in Hamilton, Bermuda.

[Nate-Gillson]

Any chance that this storm will get retired after this season?

[NDG]

seeing unconfirmed reports of sustained cat 3 winds

No doubt, I think the NHC messed up by dropping its Cat back to 2 without the confirmation of a recon that it had weakened.

[CrazyC83]

Any chance that this storm will get retired after this season?

Most likely it will be. I'm expecting Gonzalo to end up in the after one use.