ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re:

#1341 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:14 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Is Gonzalo the northernmost hurricane or one of, in this basin? I mean, it is almost off the NHC TWO chart.

I'm pretty sure Igor(2010) was the northernmost hurricane in this basin.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#1342 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:27 am

Although reanalysis will likely change that, right now 1966's Hurricane Faith is listed as the northernmost Atlantic hurricane.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheAustinMan
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 992
Age: 24
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
Location: United States
Contact:

#1343 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:33 am

Hurricane Gonzalo appears to be clearing Newfoundland and on its way to the British Isles. It could be a strong extratropical cyclone over there as is often the case with storms of this scope.

Image
0 likes   
ImageImageImage
- Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

#1344 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:07 am

Still a hurricane! Shocking storm indeed for a season like 2014 here.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4175
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re:

#1345 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:50 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Still a hurricane! Shocking storm indeed for a season like 2014 here.
Moreover, it hasn't weakened any since the 5 AM advisory. The maximum sustained wind speed and minimum central pressure are unchanged. Tenacious fellow!
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#1346 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:53 am

If anything it might be stronger now...and producing deep convection at 50N latitude is quite something. Hibernia Oil Field may have saw Category 2 conditions?
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

#1347 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:01 am

:uarrow: Not to mention water temps are less than 50°F!! Very impressive that it could even maintain hurricane status!
:double:
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#1348 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:06 am

It still has to produce deep convection for at least 30 hours to hit the British Isles as a tropical system...not likely to happen.
0 likes   

leanne_uk
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 214
Age: 41
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 4:38 pm
Location: Loughborough countryside, Leicestershire, UK

#1349 Postby leanne_uk » Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:23 pm

Well what will be left of Gonzalo will be with us here in the UK from around 8pm GMT tomorrow but the time frame is likely to change a little.
Wind and rain will obviously blue a huge factor but the mountains in Scotland could end up experiencing some blizzard conditions.
I am very much looking forward to watching this system track across the Atlantic to our shores. Fingers crossed that the potential damage is as minimal as possible.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#1350 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:58 pm

AL, 08, 2014101918, , BEST, 0, 507N, 450W, 70, 972, HU,

Still a hurricane in the heights of the Atlantic. At what point do you put out tropical advisories for northwestern Europe?
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#1351 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 2:21 pm

Well, there goes the decoupling. At about 50N, you can see the clear low level circulation pop out and the mid level center and convection shunts off to the NE. Death by transition, or decoupling? Seems to me the low level flow changed (the lower level circulation clearly drastically slowed down as it reached 50N).
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.

leanne_uk
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 214
Age: 41
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 4:38 pm
Location: Loughborough countryside, Leicestershire, UK

#1352 Postby leanne_uk » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:22 pm

The Met Office for the UK has issued the following warning....
..............................................................................................
Issued by the Met Office

Sunday 19th October

YELLOW EARLY WARNING of WIND

Gales are expected to affect much of the country on Tuesday. Whilst Monday night will see wet and windy conditions sweeping eastwards, the strongest winds are expected as the rain clears eastwards and winds veer northwesterly through Tuesday morning. Gusts exceeding 50 mph are likely inland, with 60 to 70 mph gusts in exposed coastal areas in the west and north.

The public should be aware of the potential for disruption to travel and perhaps some damage to trees. Difficult driving conditions will result, exacerbated by surface water and spray. This alert is an update of the warning first issued on Saturday, including adjustments to the areas at risk; a further update is likely to be issued on Monday morning.

Valid from 0001 to 1500 on Tuesday.
..................................................................................

I can see the yellow warning being quickly updated tho as to me yellow seems a little too tame for this system.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1353 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:39 pm

Adios to Gonzalo as Tropical.

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.6N 41.8W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM NE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1354 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:48 pm

Gonzalo got big ACE units that has helped the North Atlantic season be like a normal one. The ACE for Gonzalo closes preliminary at 26.7625 and the North Atlantic got to 66.5725.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

#1355 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:51 pm

Here's a good joke:
Gonzalo went off the TWO chart for this last advisory. No symbol to be seen because it's so far north! :lol:
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#1356 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 4:13 pm

And that is all he wrote.

Does he go into the :Door: for a 2020 return, or the :Can: for good?
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re:

#1357 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:14 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:And that is all he wrote.

Does he go into the :Door: for a 2020 return, or the :Can: for good?

I vote,
:Can:
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1358 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:Gonzalo got big ACE units that has helped the North Atlantic season be like a normal one. The ACE for Gonzalo closes preliminary at 26.7625 and the North Atlantic got to 66.5725.


As per wikipedia
Below-normal season: An ACE value below 66 (71.4% of the 1981–2010 median), or none of the following three parameters are exceeded: number of tropical storms: 9, hurricanes: 4, and major hurricanes: 1.


Interestingly with that said, by the technical definition, since the only thing failed to be met on here is the number of storms (and that may change next week) this season qualifies on the low end of the average range.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9856
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1359 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:32 am

Image
Gonzalo a near perfect hit on Bermuda, bullseye... That's a good shot for such a tiny island in the middle of the huge Atlantic...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3420
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

Re: ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1360 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:05 pm

Somebody asked what was the last hurricane to make landfall on Bermuda prior to Gonzalo.

It was Hurricane Emily in 1987.

Image

However, Hurricane Dean in 1989 passed just to the west of Bermuda.

Image
0 likes   


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 25 guests