CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

[Chris_in_Tampa]

They would only continue missions if it looks like it is a continued threat. If had shifted any further west, it might have got to that point.

[Kingarabian]

They would only continue missions if it looks like it is a continued threat. If had shifted any further west, it might have got to that point.

Ah I see.

Well they give Julio a nice set amount of Recon despite it being a clear cut to not be a threat.

[Kingarabian]

981.1 mb
(~ 28.98 inHg)

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I noticed on both Julio and Iselle they had the hurricane hunters do a mission that kind of seemed unnecessary.

Edit:

Here is why I thought that:

For Julio it had already passed the islands:
http://i.imgur.com/0YqY2Ti.jpg

For Iselle, it was closer but it had already passed at that point:
http://i.imgur.com/h2mBAr6.jpg

For NOAA, they do a lot of research. That is why Edouard was important. It was in the middle of nowhere so they could focus on testing out the new small drone without having that distract from really needing to focus on something about to make landfall somewhere.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like about 315 degrees rather than 310, but still NW.

That movement from 3:51:00Z vortex to 11:38:00Z wind shift.

[wxman57]

Just a bit of rain across the islands today, no wind. Ana has already passed as close to the big island as it will get. Hilo reported wind up to 10 mph. Honolulu had east winds at 15 kts last hour. Won't get much worse than that. Looks like moisture from Ana is being drawn northward across the islands, but the center of Ana won't get much closer than it is now.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERELY RESTRICTED OUTFLOW IN ANA/S
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR NOTED
IN RECENT UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. HOWEVER...DATA FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ANA HAS NOT WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS
NEAR 67 KT...AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 75 KT. A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE DATA SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 315/11 KT...WITH ANA
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE...
AND TO THE NORTH OF ANA...AND WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MOTION
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. A NEW RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE DATE
LINE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. ALTHOUGH ANA HAS BEEN TRACKING
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TRACK...THE UPDATED
TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS AT 24 AND 36 HOURS. THIS IS
IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE SUITE...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO RIDE THE RIGHT HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT
TERM. WHILE THE GUIDANCE...AND THE FORECAST...REMAINS STEADFAST IN A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY TONIGHT...IF THE TURN OCCURS LATER OR IS NOT
AS SHARP AS ANTICIPATED...WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF ANA COULD IMPACT
OAHU OR KAUAI COUNTY...THUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT MAUI COUNTY WILL NOT ENCOUNTER
ANA/S WIND FIELD...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY...BUT AS
THE NEW RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE CYCLONE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON AN INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD TRACK. BY DAYS
4 AND 5...ANA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT...WITH TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING INCREASING SPREAD AT
THAT TIME.

ANA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS...WITH MODEST WEAKENING THEN EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 3.
PERSISTENT WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANA
FROM INTENSIFYING OVER THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATER LOCATED TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...UNTIL THE SHEAR
BEGINS TO RELAX ON DAYS 4 AND 5. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS OFFERING A
WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME...WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE TRENDS PRESENTED BY SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATE SOME RE-STRENGTHENING. THE IVCN CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE LONGER
RANGES...AS HWRF AND GFDL STRENGTHEN ANA TO A STRONG HURRICANE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 18.5N 158.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 19.4N 159.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 19.9N 160.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 20.3N 162.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 20.6N 163.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 22.0N 166.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 168.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 26.5N 168.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[euro6208]

I noticed on both Julio and Iselle they had the hurricane hunters do a mission that kind of seemed unnecessary.

Would be lovely if they flew to Guam for a bit for the next record breaking typhoons

[galaxy401]

I noticed on both Julio and Iselle they had the hurricane hunters do a mission that kind of seemed unnecessary.

How was Iselle's flight unnecessary?

[Kingarabian]

Things in Oahu should become interesting soon

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS is closer to Kauai.

[Yellow Evan]

I noticed on both Julio and Iselle they had the hurricane hunters do a mission that kind of seemed unnecessary.

How? EPAC gets too little recon if anything. Why did Edouard get recon?

[Kingarabian]

Praying this shifts to the west soon. Blowup in convection.

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

Ana continuing to move northwest and will pass dangerously close to Kauai county tonight

Location: 19.6N 158.9W
About 170 miles (275 km) S of Lihue Hawaii
About 140 miles (225 km) SSW of Honolulu Hawaii
Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph (130 km/h)
Present movement: NW or 320 degrees at 10 mph (17 km/h)
Minimum central pressure: 989 MB or 29.21 inches



Hurricane Category: 1

[Kingarabian]

988mb was found earlier.

[AbcdeerHI]

Structure looks better. Trying close off the southwest.

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Storm Warning for Kauai.

8/17 12z and 8/18 0z, 12z Euro shifts were spot on as well.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS now much closer to Kauai.

[Kingarabian]

988.1 mb
(~ 29.18 inHg)

66 knots
(~ 76.0 mph) Flight level @ 10 seconds

60.2 knots (~ 69.2 mph)
Tropical Storm SFMR