CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located a little more than 1100 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands is showing signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of this
disturbance during the next several days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph. This disturbance is
already moving into the central Pacific and further information will
included in the tropical weather outlooks issued by the Central
Pacific Hurricane Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[supercane4867]

TXPZ28 KNES 121800
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 12/1730Z

C. 10.5N

D. 139.6W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS JUST OVER .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A
DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[Yellow Evan]

Still a bit too elongated for my liking.

[cycloneye]

Is now Invest 95C as it crossed the 140w longitude.

CP, 95, 2014101218, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1401W, 25, 1008, LO

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

CP, 95, 2014101300, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1401W, 25, 1008, LO

[AJC3]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN OCT 12 2014

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. Thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system located about 1150 miles east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii persist and are gradually becoming more organized. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of this disturbance during the next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday afternoon.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has 95C developing quicker and coming really close to the Big Island of Hawaii but a trough picks it up just in time.

[Kingarabian]

European keeps it weak and has it passing the Hawaiian islands to the south... but pretty close.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP952014 10/13/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 40 46 56 65 72 75 76 79 80 79
V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 40 46 56 65 72 75 76 79 80 79
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 51 58 65 69 72 73
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 13 11 10 13 8 10 12 15 15 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -9 -9 -7 -6 -2 1 1 -1 -1 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 105 112 107 117 124 84 67 58 39 26 36 24 50
SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4
POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 146 145 143 141 140 140 140 140 138 136
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8
700-500 MB RH 74 73 75 73 72 66 59 58 58 60 58 56 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 15 16 17 17 19 19 20 21 22 21
850 MB ENV VOR 38 41 45 48 49 49 54 60 63 73 68 58 37
200 MB DIV 146 140 91 61 76 91 103 53 71 57 68 38 57
700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -2 -1 -2 -4
LAND (KM) 1801 1717 1633 1549 1465 1311 1191 1112 1023 954 873 778 655
LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.6 13.2 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.5
LONG(DEG W) 140.1 140.9 141.6 142.3 143.1 144.4 145.6 146.6 147.7 148.6 149.5 150.4 151.5
STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 8 8 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 6
HEAT CONTENT 22 21 23 21 20 18 18 19 19 20 19 17 18

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS has Hawaii landfall again.

Also stalls it on the Big Island for a full day it seems.

[supercane4867]

I won't buy any GFS solutions until the storm has actually formed, too much uncertainty for now.

[Kingarabian]

I won't buy any GFS solutions until the storm has actually formed, too much uncertainty for now.

Agreed. The GFS usually does better in the EPAC than it does in the Atlantic. We'll see. I'm well aware of its issues that are happening in the Atlantic side.

[Alyono]

looks like this may already be a TD

[Yellow Evan]

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface low centered about 1025 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii have continued to become better organized tonight. Environmental conditions remain conducive for additional development of this disturbance as it moves toward the west northwest at about 10 mph, and a tropical depression may form later today or tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 80 percent.

[tolakram]

6Z GFS

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS

[cycloneye]

TD at 11 AM HST or 5 PM EDT.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON OCT 13 2014



For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be initiating advisories at 11 am HST on newly formed tropical depression Two-C, located about 1150 miles east-southeast on Honolulu.

[Kingarabian]

TD at 11 AM HST or 5 PM EDT.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON OCT 13 2014



For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be initiating advisories at 11 am HST on newly formed tropical depression Two-C, located about 1150 miles east-southeast on Honolulu.

And so it continues.

More debates with Iceman56!

[Kingarabian]

HWRF brings it down to 968

[Kingarabian]

GFDL: