ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

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#21 Postby artist » Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:56 am

2:00 AM AST Wed Oct 15
Location: 22.6°N 67.0°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 954 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:13 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014

...GONZALO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 67.3W
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA


HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014

The small eye of Gonzalo has become a little less distinct in
infrared satellite imagery overnight. It is possible that an eye
wall replacement has begun, but there has been no recent microwave
images to assess the current structure of the inner core. There
has been little change in the subjective and objective Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates overnight and the initial wind speed
remains 110 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is en route to the hurricane, which should
provide a better assessment of the intensity of Gonzalo this
morning.

A UW/CIMSS shear analysis and the SHIPS model indicate that there is
still some light to moderate southerly shear over the hurricane, but
the shear is expected to decrease today. This favors
intensification, however difficult-to-predict eye wall replacement
cycles could cause some fluctuations in intensity during the next
day or two. The NHC forecast calls for some slight intensification
today followed by little change in strength in 24 to 48 hours.
After that time, increasing southwesterly shear, drier air, and
cooler sea surface temperatures should cause weakening. Gonzalo is
expected to become extratropical by day 4, and the global models
indicate that it will remain a powerful extratropical low through
the end of the forecast period.

Gonzalo is moving northwestward or 320/11 kt. The forecast track
reasoning remains unchanged. The hurricane should turn north-
northwestward and northward during the next day or so as it moves
around the western side of a mid-level ridge over the central
Atlantic. After that time, Gonzalo is forecast to turn
north-northeastward and accelerate ahead of a mid-latitude trough
that will be moving off the east coast of the United States. The
track guidance is in excellent agreement on this scenario, however
the updated NHC forecast has been shifted a little west of
the previous advisory to be closer to the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 22.9N 67.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 24.0N 68.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 25.5N 68.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 27.3N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 29.9N 67.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 37.5N 62.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 48.5N 52.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0600Z 54.0N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: GONZALO:Obs / Local WS / Reports= Bermuda / E Can /N Scotia

#23 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:15 am

2:45 AM ADT Wednesday 15 October 2014
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA


For hurricane Gonzalo.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT.

Hurricane Gonzalo expected to track north-northeastward later this week - potential impacts over land.

Hurricane Gonzalo intensified quickly during the past two days and is moving away from the northeast caribbean. Gonzalo now a major hurricane is forecast to intensify to category-4 intensity today. A cold front extending well into the subtropics will guide the hurricane northward near Bermuda, potentially drawing moisture over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Friday. The centre of the storm may track anywhere from just east of Cape Breton to well offshore over the Grand Banks - which is approximately a 600-km span of uncertainty. Timing of the storm's possible impact over land or closest offshore approach will be in the late Friday to late Saturday timeframe.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre will begin issuing regular bulletins later today since the storm is expected to at least affect our offshore marine district.

Visit weather.gc.ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.

Forecaster(s): couturier
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:33 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014

...GONZALO MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS A STRONG CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 67.7W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON THURSDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:54 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014

...GONZALO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 68.0W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH...215
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH
GONZALO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB...28.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON THURSDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
Gonzalo has strengthened a little. The maximum 700 mb flight-level
wind reported was 123 kt and the highest SFMR wind observation was
116 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is increased to
115 kt, making Gonzalo a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. This is the first category 4 hurricane in the
Atlantic basin since Ophelia in 2011. The aircraft data and
microwave images clearly show concentric eyewalls, with the
inner radius of maximum wind now only about 4-5 n mi from the
center.

Smoothing through the trochoidal oscillation of the eye yields an
initial motion estimate of 320/10 kt. A high amplitude trough over
the eastern United States is expected to slowly move eastward during
the next couple of days, and will erode the subtropical ridge that
is currently steering Gonzalo. This change in the large-scale
pattern should cause the hurricane to turn northward by early
Thursday and north-northeastward Thursday night and Friday, likely
bringing Gonzalo near Bermuda in about 2 days. Beyond 48 hours, the
hurricane is forecast to accelerate generally northeastward. The
track model guidance remains tightly clustered, and the official
forecast is near the GFS and ECMWF solutions and only slightly to
the left of the previous one.

Given the evidence of concentric eyewalls, and with the inner
eyewall already about as small as it can get, the current period of
intensification could be about over. The hurricane will likely
fluctuate in strength while the environmental conditions remain
favorable during the next day or two. After that time, weakening
is forecast when the hurricane moves into an atmosphere of
increasing southwesterly shear and drier air, and over much colder
water. Post-tropical transition will likely occur in 3 to 4 days
when the cyclone is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf
Stream current. Little change was made to the previous intensity
forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 23.5N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 24.6N 68.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 26.3N 68.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 28.6N 68.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 31.6N 66.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 40.6N 60.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 50.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1200Z 54.0N 24.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:51 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
200 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014

...GONZALO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH 130 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 68.3W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION BY LATE
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR
HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB...28.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON THURSDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: GONZALO:Obs / Local WS / Reports= Bermuda / E Can /N Scotia

#27 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:58 pm

2:45 PM ADT Wednesday 15 October 2014
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA


For hurricane Gonzalo.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT.

Hurricane Gonzalo forecast to move toward Newfoundland tomorrow and Friday - impacts likely in Newfoundland and possibly Eastern Nova Scotia Saturday.

Location: 23.7north 68.3west.

About 1025 kilometres south-southwest of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 210 km/hour.

Present movement: northwest at 20 km/hour.

Minimum central pressure: 949 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

As of today it is looking more likely that Gonzalo will be affecting Newfoundland this weekend, even if the centre of it tracks a bit offshore. Gonzalo will be undergoing transition to a strong post-tropical storm as it races north-northeastward on Friday and Saturday with strongest winds to the right (east) of its track and heaviest rains to the left (west) and near the track itself. It is too early to go into detail about which geographical regions will be affected. Eastern Nova Scotia is not out of the picture - heavy rain from the storm is possible there if the centre tracks through Central Newfoundland or west.

The overall track scenario as of now ranges from just east of Cape Breton to about 200 kilometres southeast of Newfoundland. This still represents a range of about 500 kilometres, or about a 50-60% chance of the storm centre making landfall in Newfoundland. Arrival of the strong winds/storm centre ranges from midday Saturday to early Sunday (12 to 18 hours of uncertainty).

A. Wind.

Too early to predict wind speeds specifically, but this storm has the potential to bring very strong winds - particularly if the centre of it tracks across Central Newfoundland which would put the high wind swath over the eastern peninsulas. Remember that the wind field expands during transition to post-tropical, thus the highest winds could move far enough away from the core such as to miss the land areas, as was the case with hurricane Maria in 2011. We are still talking about a fair bit of uncertainty at this stage.

B. Rainfall.

Tomorrow we will have a better idea of rainfall amounts. It is worth noting a couple of things with regard to the precipitation pattern likely to evolve with this storm. Firstly, a cold front is expected to cross Newfoundland then become stationary over the eastern part of the island by Saturday morning. That could bring with it some heavy rainfall especially if moisture from Gonzalo travels along it. Secondly, the rainfall from the storm itself will likely move through very quickly and occur primarily within the front half of the storm followed by the higher winds. This is a typical pattern with these types of storms.

C. Surge/waves.

Certainly storm surge and waves will be of concern in Newfoundland if the centre tracks over land, even if it is offshore a bit. In tomorrow's bulletins we will highlight the timing with tides and wave heights to be expected.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

This storm could have heavy impacts over the marine district. The greatest threat of very high waves is shaping up to be over the Grand Banks and farther west toward the coastal areas of Newfoundland. Details tomorrow.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.

Forecaster(s): fogarty
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2014 3:46 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014

...MAJOR HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 68.6W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION BY LATE
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER
THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN
GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON THURSDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014

Gonzalo is not quite as well organized as it was this morning.
Satellite images show that the eye of the hurricane appears less
distinct than it was earlier today, and radar images from a NOAA
hurricane hunter aircraft earlier today suggested than the inner
eyewall could be eroding. The initial wind speed is lowered
to 110 kt based on the slightly degraded appearance of the
storm. Another Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Gonzalo this evening and should provide a better
assessment of its intensity and structure.

The hurricane remains on track and is moving northwestward at about
9 kt. Water vapor images show a large trough over the eastern
United States. This trough is expected to move eastward during the
next couple of days, which should cause Gonzalo to make a turn
toward the north on Thursday and north-northeast on Friday, likely
bringing Gonzalo near Bermuda in about 2 days. After that time, a
faster northeastward and then east-northeastward motion is
predicted over the North Atlantic Ocean. The track model guidance,
in general, is a little slower than it was at 1200 UTC and the
official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The guidance is
also not quite as tightly clustered as it has been, as the ECMWF
has shifted a bit west of the rest of the primary objective aids.

The large scale environmental conditions are expected to remain
favorable during the next day or so, and the intensity of Gonzalo
will likely fluctuate due to eyewall replacement cycles. In
about 48 hours, the hurricane is expected to be moving into an
atmosphere of increasing southwesterly shear and drier air, and over
sharply colder waters. These conditions should cause weakening and
post-tropical transition in 3 to 4 days.

NOAA buoy 41046 recently reported a pressure of 955 mb, and was
quite useful in estimating Gonzalo's minimum pressure.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 24.1N 68.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 25.3N 68.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 27.2N 68.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 29.7N 67.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 32.9N 65.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 41.8N 58.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 51.0N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1800Z 54.0N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:41 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014

...HURRICANE GONZALO TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TO NORTH IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION BY LATE THURSDAY. GONZALO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR
BERMUDA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER
THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN
GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON THURSDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:58 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014

...GONZALO TURNS NORTHWARD AND AIMS AT BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 68.7W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY LATE
THURSDAY. GONZALO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR BERMUDA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A MORE STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY
LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 953 MB...28.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER
THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN
GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON THURSDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014

Although satellite images have recently shown increased
organization, aircraft data suggest that Gonzalo has actually
slightly weakened. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
measured peak flight-level winds of 118 kt and a peak SFMR value of
99 kt. These data support an initial intensity of 105 kt.

The plane did report that the concentric eyewall cycle has finished,
suggesting that the weakening trend is probably over. Little
change in strength is shown for the next 24 hours since the shear
expected to be weak or moderate while the hurricane traverses warm
waters. Gradual weakening is shown after that time due to the
cyclone moving across cooler waters, some of which were upwelled by
the recent passage of Fay near Bermuda. The official NHC forecast
is a little lower than the previous one, although is on the higher
side of the guidance during the first 36 hours. Transition to a
post-tropical cyclone is expected in about 72 hours with most of
the models showing Gonzalo becoming a large warm-seclusion low.

Gonzalo is turning northward as it feels the effects of a strong
trough over the eastern United States. There is good agreement on
the cyclone moving toward the north-northeast tomorrow and northeast
on Friday, accelerating as it is steered by the trough. The NHC
forecast virtually unchanged over the first couple of days of the
prediction, with most of the models showing Gonzalo near Bermuda in
a little over 36 hours. At longer range, the extratropical cyclone
should move more to the east-northeast as it moves within the fast
mid-latitude flow to the north of a central Atlantic ridge. Only
small changes were made to the previous forecast, which ends up
being slightly slower at days 4 and 5.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 24.6N 68.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 25.8N 68.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 28.1N 68.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 30.7N 66.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 33.8N 64.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 43.8N 57.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 20/0000Z 52.0N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0000Z 55.0N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 16, 2014 4:44 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014

...GONZALO REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AGAIN...
...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 68.7W
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
BERMUDA ON FRIDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS
A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...
AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO TODAY. SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 41046...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF GONZALO...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 51 MPH...83 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND
ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014

The satellite presentation of Gonzalo has improved during the past
few hours, with the eye warming and becoming more distinct since
the last advisory. The 0600 UTC Dvorak estimate from TAFB was
T6.0/115 kt and the 0715 UTC ADT was T6.2/120 kt. The initial
intensity is set to 120 kt for this advisory based on the improving
satellite appearance. The next Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be
investigating Gonzalo around 1200 UTC to provide more information on
the storm's intensity.

Given the recent satellite trends, it seems that Gonzalo has
completed the earlier eyewall replacement cycle. Some additional
fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 12 hours
while Gonzalo remains over SSTs around 29C. Gradual weakening is
forecast through 36 hours while SSTs slowly cool along the
track and the shear begins to increase, and Gonzalo is expected to
remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near Bermuda on Friday.
After 36 hours, faster weakening is shown as Gonzalo becomes
post-tropical and then gradually decays as an extratropical cyclone
late in the period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little above
most of the guidance in the short term and then trends toward the
LGEM model while Gonzalo remains a tropical cyclone.

The initial motion estimate is 360/08, as Gonzalo is moving
northward to the west of a subtropical ridge. The model guidance is
in very good agreement on the track forecast scenario, with Gonzalo
expected to recurve ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving off the
east coast of North America. The guidance this cycle has trended a
little to the right through 48 hours and the NHC track has been
adjusted 20-30 miles in that direction. This forecast is now a
little to the left of the multi-model consensus and brings the
center of Gonzalo very close to Bermuda in about 36 hours. Late in
the period, post-tropical Gonzalo is expected to pass south of
Newfoundland and then accelerate northeastward and eastward across
the north Atlantic. At days 3 through 5, the new NHC forecast is
largely an update of the previous one.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 25.3N 68.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 26.8N 68.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 29.2N 67.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 31.9N 65.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 35.3N 63.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 45.5N 53.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 20/0600Z 52.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0600Z 55.0N 10.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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#32 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:57 am

000
WTNT33 KNHC 161154
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014

...GONZALO MOVING NORTHWARD AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 68.7W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR
HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO TODAY. SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED
TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA. STEADY
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND
ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:21 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS GONZALO A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 68.6W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO
THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY...BUT
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR
BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND
ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Gonzalo measured an
SFMR surface wind of 135 kt, but this observation was not supported
by the flight-level winds, which were only as high as 126 kt
in the northeastern quadrant, or SFMR data in subsequent passes in
that portion of the storm. The initial intensity is raised to 125 kt
on this advisory based on a compromise between the flight-level and
SFMR data, as well as satellite intensity estimates that range from
T5.5/102 kt from SAB and T6.6/130 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.

Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 hours
while Gonzalo remains in a relatively light-shear environment and
over warm sea surface temperatures. Some weakening is anticipated
on Friday once the vertical shear begins to increase, but Gonzalo is
not forecast to reach sub-26C water until about 48 hours.
Therefore, the hurricane is expected to maintain major
hurricane strength through the next 36 hours or so while it passes
Bermuda, with more rapid weakening forecast after 48 hours. The
official forecast is a little higher than the previous one during
the first 48 hours to account for the updated initial intensity.
This forecast is close to the SHIPS and LGEM guidance for the next
24 hours and then close to the intensity consensus thereafter.
Gonzalo is still forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone by day 3
while it passes near Newfoundland, and at that point it
should also be very close to taking on frontal characteristics.
Gonzalo should dissipate by day 5 while it moves eastward over the
north Atlantic.

The initial motion is 005/6 kt. Gonzalo is moving a little slower
than was previously forecast, which is having some downstream
effects on the track forecast. There is very little cross-track
spread among the model guidance, but nearly all of the track models
are slower than the previous forecast. Gonzalo is moving northward
to the east of a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States,
and the hurricane should begin to accelerate north-northeastward
ahead of this trough from this point forward. Since this
acceleration is somewhat delayed, the updated NHC track forecast is
a little slower than the previous one, and lies close to TVCA
and a GFS-ECMWF blend.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 26.1N 68.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 27.5N 68.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 29.9N 66.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 32.6N 64.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 36.5N 62.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 46.5N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 20/1200Z 52.0N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#34 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:22 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
200 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014

...GONZALO CONTINUES NORTHWARD...
...INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE RUSHING THEIR PREPARATIONS TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 68.5W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR
HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO THROUGH TONIGHT.
SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE
A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES...
BASED ON THE LAST REPORT FROM AN EARLIER NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
MISSION.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD. SWELLS WILL
REACH THE REST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA
THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: GONZALO:Obs / Local WS / Reports= Bermuda / E Can /N Scotia

#35 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:07 pm

2:45 PM ADT Thursday 16 October 2014
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA


For hurricane Gonzalo.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT.

Hurricane Gonzalo to impact Bermuda tomorrow then accelerate northeastward - likely to affect Southeastern Newfoundland late Saturday or Sunday.

1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 PM ADT.

Location: near 26.5 north 68.3 west.

About 690 kilometres south-southwest of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 220 km/hour.

Present movement: north-northeast at 19 km/hour.

Minimum central pressure: 940 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gonzalo will be affecting Newfoundland this weekend even if the centre of it remains a bit offshore. The storm will be undergoing transition to a strong post-tropical storm as it races north-northeastward on Saturday with strongest winds to the right (southeast) of its track and heaviest rains to the left (northwest) and near the track itself. It is looking more likely that the main area to be affected will be Southeastern Newfoundland with rain and possibly some wind impacts. Yesterday we were mentioning that Cape Breton could see rain from Gonzalo but that is looking less likely as of today. The Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia will, however, experience large ocean swells on Saturday and into Sunday. Details below.

Today we are seeing the range of track scenarios tighten a bit, with the westernmost track possibility near St. Pierre and Miquelon and the easternmost about 250 kilometres southeast of Cape Race. This represents a range of about 350 kilometres with about a 40% chance of the storm centre making landfall in Newfoundland, down a bit from yesterday. Arrival of the main circulation/windy part of the storm is now estimated to be a bit later, ranging from late Saturday evening to Sunday morning (9 to 12 hours of uncertainty).

Note: a front with strong winds and heavy showers will cross the Maritimes on Friday and Newfoundland early Saturday. This, in and of itself, may feel like a tropical storm but should not to be confused with Gonzalo.

A. Wind.

Still too early to predict wind speeds specifically, but this storm has the potential to bring very strong winds over land - particularly if the centre tracks near the Burin Peninsula which would place the Avalon within the high wind region. The wind field will be expanding away from (southeast of) the centre of the storm during transition to post-tropical, thus the highest winds could move far enough away and miss the land areas. This can occur even if the storm centre technically makes landfall, as was the case with hurricane Maria in 2011. The probability of this offshore wind situation has increased as of today with computer models indicating a farther-southeast track compared to yesterday. So although the range of track scenarios is narrowing, 350 kilometres will make all the difference as to whether the Avalon region experiences the full force of the wind, or winds much less.

B. Rainfall.

Rainfall from Gonzalo will be dependent on its track, forward speed of travel and state of post-tropical transition. Complicating matters further is the fact that a cold front is expected to cross Newfoundland then become stationary over the eastern part of the island by Saturday morning. That could bring with it some downpours especially if moisture from Gonzalo travels along it. As of now, the highest rainfall we expect from both systems may be in the 50 to 75-millimetres range. The rainfall from the storm itself will likely move through very quickly and occur primarily within the front half of the storm followed by the higher winds. Rainfall rates of 25 millimetres/h for a brief period are possible which can cause localized flooding.

C. Surge/waves.

Certainly storm surge and waves will be of concern in Newfoundland if the centre tracks over land or even if it is just a bit offshore. Seas over 5 metres could very well reach the southeast coast of the island. This will depend on the wind forecast which remains highly uncertain in that region. Also the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia will experience large ocean swells of 2-3 metres on Saturday.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

This storm could have heavy impacts over parts of the marine district. Hurricane force winds and significant wave heights in excess of 12 metres are certainly possible over some marine areas, especially those to the right of the storm's track late Saturday or early Sunday. Further details will be available as the situation evolves.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.

Forecaster(s): fogarty/mackinnon
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#36 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:32 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014

...GONZALO TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ON
BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 68.2W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR
HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO THROUGH TONIGHT.
SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE
A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD. SWELLS WILL
REACH THE REST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA
THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014

Recent microwave data indicate that Gonzalo has a concentric
eyewall structure, with a small open inner ring of convection
surrounded by a larger closed ring. The satellite presentation has
not changed appreciably since this morning, and the CI estimate from
the UW-CIMSS ADT supports maintaining the initial intensity at 125
kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Gonzalo later this evening and should give us a better
handle on the hurricane's current intensity.

Light westerly shear has been affecting Gonzalo, but it hasn't been
enough to disrupt the hurricane's structure. Vertical shear is
forecast to increase slightly during the next 12-24 hours, and then
increase substantially after 48 hours. Also, sea surface
temperatures along Gonzalo's forecast path are expected to be at
least 26C for the next 48 hours. Therefore, only gradual weakening
is anticipated during the next couple of days while Gonzalo moves
near Bermuda. More rapid weakening should occur after 48 hours
once Gonzalo moves north of the Gulf Stream and is affected by
40-50 kt of westerly shear. The NHC intensity forecast closely
follows the intensity consensus ICON, and no significant changes
were required to the previous forecast. The global models indicate
that Gonzalo will likely become extratropical by 72 hours, and that
is now indicated in the NHC forecast.

Gonzalo has turned north-northeastward and begun to accelerate with
an initial motion estimate of 015/8 kt. The hurricane is entering
the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough located over the eastern
United States, and this pattern is expected to cause Gonzalo to
accelerate further toward the north-northeast during the next 48
hours. After 48 hours, the cyclone is forecast to turn
northeastward and east-northeastward over the north Atlantic. The
track guidance is tightly clustered for much of the forecast
period. However, the new models are again a little slower than the
previous forecast, and they have shifted northwestward between 48-72
hours. The updated NHC track forecast has also been shifted
northwestward during that time toward the TVCA model consensus.

Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo
continues on the current NHC forecast track. Although specific
amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
Gonzalo.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 27.1N 68.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 28.7N 67.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 31.1N 65.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 34.3N 64.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 39.0N 60.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 50.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1800Z 55.0N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#37 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:48 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014

...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ON
BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 67.8W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

PRELIMINARY DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH
GONZALO THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY...BUT
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR
BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
943 MB...27.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD. SWELLS WILL
REACH THE REST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#38 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:38 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014

...GONZALO MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD BERMUDA...
...LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 67.5W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST
ON FRIDAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN
IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 943
MB...27.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD. SWELLS WILL
REACH THE REST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014

The latest hurricane hunter mission into Gonzalo found peak
flight-level winds of 136 kt, with SFMR values of 107 kt. A blend
of these winds gives a surface wind speed estimate of about 120 kt
for the current intensity, a bit lower than before. This slight
weakening is also suggested by the latest satellite pictures, which
show that the eye has become less distinct.

No significant change in strength is forecast for the next 12
hours while Gonzalo remains over warm water with little shear,
although some fluctuations are possible due to internal eyewall
cycle dynamics. A more steady weakening is expected by late
tomorrow since the hurricane will be moving over substantially
cooler SSTs. However, any weakening is probably too late to spare
Bermuda, with almost all of the guidance showing the system as a
major hurricane as it moves nearby. In 36-48 hours, shear is
forecast to increase dramatically which should continue the
weakening process, and start extratropical transition over cold
waters. The NHC forecast is about the same as the previous
interpolated forecast, and follows the trend of the intensity
consensus. Extratropical transition is still shown at day 3,
although it could be close to losing tropical characteristics
just after 48 hours.

Gonzalo is accelerating toward the north-northeast, now moving at
about 12 kt. Global models are in good agreement on the hurricane
entering the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough over the eastern
United States, and this pattern is expected to cause Gonzalo to
accelerate further toward the north-northeast during the next 48
hours. All of the reliable guidance show Gonzalo passing over or
within 30 nm to the west of the island, and little change has been
made to the forecast track through 2 days. Gonzalo should race
northeastward and east-northeastward as an extratropical cyclone
over the far north Atlantic.

Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo
continues on the current NHC forecast track. Although specific
amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
Gonzalo.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 28.0N 67.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 29.7N 66.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 32.5N 64.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 36.4N 62.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 42.0N 57.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 52.0N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/0000Z 56.5N 12.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#39 Postby abajan » Fri Oct 17, 2014 5:16 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
200 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO HEADING TOWARD BERMUDA...
...LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 67.3W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A
CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE
OF GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR
BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA TODAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.
SWELLS WILL REACH THE REST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
AND BERMUDA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN

_____________________________________________________________________

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING...
...GONZALO LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 66.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR
BERMUDA. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATER THIS
MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER
THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN
GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#40 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2014 5:22 am

3:26 AM ADT Friday 17 October 2014
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA


For hurricane Gonzalo.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT.

Hurricane Gonzalo to impact Bermuda later today then accelerate northeastward - affecting Southeastern Newfoundland Saturday night or early Sunday.

1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 AM ADT.

Location: near 28.5 north 67.2 west.

About 495 kilometres south-southwest of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 220 km/hour.

Present movement: north-northeast at 25 km/hour.

Minimum central pressure: 943 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gonzalo will be affecting Newfoundland Saturday night or Sunday morning even if the centre of it remains a bit offshore. The storm will begin undergoing transition to a strong post-tropical storm as it races north-northeastward on Saturday with strongest winds to the right (southeast) of its track and heaviest rains to the left (northwest) and near the track itself. The main area to be affected will be Southeastern Newfoundland with rain and likely some wind impacts. It is unlikely Cape Breton will see rain from Gonzalo. However, the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia will experience large ocean swells on Saturday and into Sunday. Details below.

Tonight the latest indications are that the track will range with the westernmost track possibility just west of Saint Pierre and Miquelon and the easternmost about 250 kilometres southeast of Cape Race. This represents a range of about 350 kilometres with about a 50 percent chance of the storm centre making landfall in Newfoundland. Arrival of the main circulation/windy part of the storm is estimated to range from late Saturday evening to Sunday morning (9 to 12 hours of uncertainty).

Note: a front with strong winds and heavy showers will cross the Maritimes today and Newfoundland early Saturday. This, in and of itself, may feel like a tropical storm but should not to be confused with Gonzalo.

A. Wind.

Still too early to predict wind speeds specifically, but this storm has the potential to bring very strong winds over land - particularly if the centre tracks near the Burin Peninsula which would place the Avalon within the high wind region. The wind field will be expanding away from (southeast of) the centre of the storm during transition to post-tropical, thus the highest winds could move far enough away and miss the land areas. This can occur even if the storm centre technically makes landfall, as was the case with hurricane Maria in 2011. So although the range of track scenarios is narrowing, 350 kilometres will make all the difference as to whether the Avalon region experiences the full force of the wind, or winds that are much less.

B. Rainfall.

Rainfall from Gonzalo will be dependent on its track, forward speed of travel and state of post-tropical transition. Complicating matters further is the fact that a cold front is expected to cross Newfoundland then become stationary over the eastern part of the island by Saturday morning. That could bring with it some downpours especially if moisture from Gonzalo travels along it. As of now, the highest rainfall we expect from both systems may be in the 50 to 75 millimetre range. The rainfall from the storm itself will likely move through very quickly and occur primarily within the front half of the storm followed by the higher winds. Rainfall rates of 25 millimetres per hour for a brief period are possible which can cause localized flooding.

C. Surge/waves.

Certainly storm surge and waves will be of concern in Newfoundland if the centre tracks over land or even if it is just a bit offshore. Seas over 5 metres could very well reach the southeast coast of the island. This will depend on the wind forecast which remains highly uncertain in that region. Also the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia will experience large ocean swells of 2 to 3 metres on Saturday.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

This storm will have heavy impacts over parts of the marine district. Hurricane force winds and significant wave heights in excess of 12 metres are likely over some marine areas, especially those to the right of the storm's track late Saturday or early Sunday.

With Gonzalo's approach for late Saturday, a hurricane force wind warning has been issued for Laurentian Fan - southeastern half. A storm warning has been issued for Laurentian Fan - northwestern half. Gale warnings have been issued East Scotian Slope - southeastern half, Banquereau - southeastern half and the Southwestern Grand Banks.
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