ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#61 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:53 pm

HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 58.5W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#62 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 8:50 pm

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA


For hurricane Gonzalo.

The next intermediate statement will be issued at 12:00 AM ADT. Gonzalo accelerating to pass very close to the Southern Avalon Peninsula early Sunday morning and rapidly across the Northern Grand Banks by afternoon.

1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 PM ADT.

Location: near 41.0 north 58.7 west.

About 771 kilometres southwest of Cape Race.

Maximum sustained winds: 140 km/hour.

Present movement: northeast at 57 km/hour.

Minimum central pressure: 965 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

The latest indications are that Gonzalo will track very near, but just south of, Cape Race. There is still a slight chance the centre will pass over Cape Race.

Tropical storm watches are in effect for the Avalon Peninsula, with the exception of Avalon Peninsula North, beginning tonight. The Newfoundland and Labrador weather office has issued rainfall warnings for the Avalon Peninsula.

A. Wind.

Winds associated with Gonzalo will begin to affect the Avalon Peninsula near midnight tonight and will increase overnight to 50 gusting to 80 km/h.

B. Rainfall.

Much of Southeastern Newfoundland will receive rainfall as a result of Gonzalo's passage. The bulk of the rainfall from Gonzalo is currently expected to be over the Avalon Peninsula. Current indications are that rain associated with Gonzalo will begin overnight tonight and end by mid morning Sunday. In the areas of heaviest rain, rainfall rates of 25 millimetres per hour for a brief period are possible which could result in a risk of flash flooding.

Rainfall warnings have been issued for the Avalon Peninsula and may be extended to the Burin Peninsula.

C. Surge/waves.

Wave heights will increase quickly along the southern coast of Newfoundland overnight tonight. The largest waves will be along the southern coast of the Avalon Peninsula where wave heights will be in the 5 to 8 metre range and could possibly exceed 10 metres. Elsewhere along the South Coast of Newfoundland, waves of 4 to 6 metres are likely.

Of concern is that high tide along the Southern Avalon Peninsula is near dawn Sunday which may be the time of Gonzalo's passage. High coastal water levels and high waves are likely along Southern Avalon Peninsula early Sunday morning. There is a possibility of local flooding mainly due to wave activity at this time.

Also, the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia will experience large ocean swells of 2 to 3 metres beginning tonight and building to 3 to 5 metres by Sunday morning.

A special weather statement has been issued regarding the waves and high water levels.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

High winds and large waves are beginning over the eastern slope waters. These impacts will increase rapidly in the next few hours and spread north and east across the Grand Banks and towards the Newfoundland South Coast overnight tonight. Gonzalo will exit the marine areas by Sunday afternoon. However, large swells will persist after Gonzalo's passage while gradually subsiding.

Hurricane force winds and significant wave heights in excess of 12 metres are forecast for Laurentian Fan and the Grand Banks. There are also indications that waves could locally exceed 18 metres over Southeastern Laurentian Fan into the Southern Grand Banks, with lesser wave heights further north.

Marine warnings summary:

Newfoundland waters: hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for the Northern Grand Banks and the Southwestern Grand Banks. Storm warnings are in effect for the South Coast, East Coast - Cape St. Francis and south, and the Southeastern Grand Banks. A gale warning is in effect for the Funk Island Bank - southern half.

Maritimes waters: a hurricane force wind warning is in effect for Laurentian Fan - southeastern half. Storm warnings are in effect for Laurentian Fan - northwestern half and Banquereau - southeastern half. Gale warnings are in effect for East Scotian Slope - southeastern half and Banquereau northwestern half.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest:
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#63 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:52 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...HURRICANE GONZALO GROWS LARGER WHILE RACING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.3N 57.0W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 39 MPH...63 KM/H. THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES
CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
LATE SUNDAY WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

THE WIND FIELD OF GONZALO HAS EXPANDED. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOW
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014


Gonzalo has been maintaining a central dense overcast feature over
the large eye feature noted in microwave satellite imagery since the
previous advisory. A 19/0116 UTC ASCAT-B high-resolution overpass
indicated 78-80 kt surface winds in the eastern quadrant about 45
nmi southeast of the center, so the intensity remains 80 kt for
this advisory, which could be a conservative estimate. The same
ASCAT pass also indicted that the wind field in the southeastern
semicircle had expanded significantly, and the respective wind radii
have been increased accordingly.

Gonzalo continues to accelerate toward the northeast and the
initial motion estimate is 040/34 kt. The latest 0000 UTC model
guidance remains tightly packed, so no significant changes were
made to the previous forecast track. Gonzalo should continue to move
northeastward and then east-northeastward in the flow between a
deep-layer trough to the west of the hurricane and a subtropical
ridge to its south. The NHC forecast track is just an update of the
previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCA.
The post-tropical portion of the forecast track was coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

Recent SST analyses and the forecast motion indicate that Gonzalo
should continue to move over a thermal ridge for a few more hours,
which should help the cyclone maintain status as a tropical
cyclone. By 12 hours, however, SSTs less than 12C and increasing
southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt should result
in Gonzalo making the transition to a strong post-tropical
extratropical cyclone. Gradual weakening is forecast after the
transition occurs and to continue until dissipation occurs in by 72
hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model
through 12 hours, and then is based on input from the Ocean
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 42.3N 57.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 47.0N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/0000Z 52.0N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/1200Z 54.0N 24.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/0000Z 57.0N 8.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#64 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2014 5:15 am

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

A small CDO feature persists near the center of Gonzalo, although
cloud tops have warmed a bit recently. The initial intensity has
been nudged downward to 75 kt for this advisory, assuming some
weakening now that the cyclone is moving over SSTs of less than 15
deg C. Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today and
weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, post-
tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain an intensity of 45 kt over
the north Atlantic until the system dissipates shortly after 48
hours. The NHC intensity forecast is based on guidance from the
global models and the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

Gonzalo has accelerated over the past 6 hours and is now racing
northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 040/45 knots. The
global models are in good agreement on the cyclone accelerating
east-northeastward over the north Atlantic during the next couple of
days. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
models through dissipation and is near the latest guidance from OPC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 46.3N 52.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 50.1N 44.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/0600Z 53.4N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/1800Z 56.2N 15.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/0600Z 58.5N 2.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#65 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:41 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO STILL A HURRICANE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.6N 50.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#66 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:23 am

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA


For hurricane Gonzalo.

The next intermesiate statement will be issued by 12:00 PM ADT.

Gonzalo is moving rapidly northeastward away from Newfoundland and the rain due to it has ended. However, large waves will continue to impact the South Coast of the Avalon today.

1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 AM ADT.

Location: near 47.8 north 49.8 west.

About 278 kilometres east-northeast of Cape Race.

Maximum sustained winds: 130 km/hour.

Present movement: northeast at 81 km/hour.

Minimum central pressure: 967 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

The threat of rain and wind has ended over the Avalon Peninsula. Therefore the tropical storm watches and rainfall warnings will soon end.

A. Wind.

Winds associated with Gonzalo are diminishing.

B. Rainfall.

Heavy rain associated with Gonzalo that moved across the Avalon Peninsula overnight and early this morning has moved off to the east. St. John's international airport 48 mm.

C. Surge/waves.

Buoy 44141 on the Laurentian Fan marine area well south of Newfoundland recorded a peak wave of 20.8 metres (68 feet).

Buoy 44139 farther north on the Laurentian Fan marine area recorded a peak wave of 15.3 metres (50 feet) buoy 44137 on East Scotian Slope marine area well south of Nova Scotia recorded a peak wave of 10.1 metres (33 feet).

Buoy 44251 just south of the Avalon Peninsula reported a peak wave of 9 metres with wave heights increasing and a wind gust of 45 knots (80 km/h).

Wave heights will continue to increase along the southern coast of Newfoundland this morning. The largest waves will be along the southern coast of the Avalon Peninsula this morning where wave heights will be in the 7 to 10 metre range and could possibly exceed 12 metres.

Further west along the South Coast of Newfoundland, waves of 4 to 6 metres are expected.

Latest indications are that the highest waves along the South Coast will occur during the falling tide or near low tide which should mitigate the possibility of coastal flooding. This is fortunate since surge levels of 80 centimetres occurred near high tide at dawn this morning at Argentia, indicating levels of near a metre probably occurred between st. Bride's and Cape Race.

A special weather statement is in effect regarding the waves and high water levels along the South Coast of Newfoundland.

The Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia is experiencing ocean swells of 2 to 3 metres. These swells will be building to 3 to 5 metres this morning then gradually subside late today.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

High winds and large waves over Gonzalo will exit the marine areas by this afternoon.

However, large swells will persist after Gonzalo's passage this afternoon. These waves will gradually subside by tonight.

Hurricane force winds and significant wave heights of 10 to 15 metres are expected this morning over much of the Grand Banks with the possibility that waves could reach 18 metres over southern portions of the Grand Banks.

Marine warnings summary:

Newfoundland waters related to Gonzalo: hurricane force wind warnings are continued for the Northern Grand Banks. Storm warnings are in effect for the East Coast - Cape St. Francis and south. Gale warnings are in effect for the South Coast, Funk Island Bank - southern half, and the southeastern and Southwestern Grand Banks.

Maritimes waters: all warning related to Gonzalo will be dropped this morning.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#67 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:34 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO REMAINS A HURRICANE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.0N 47.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ENE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.



HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

Despite traversing across sea-surface temperatures less than 10C,
Gonzalo has been able to maintain convection near the center. A 0845
UTC AMSU overpass also revealed that Gonzalo still had a deep warm
core that extended above the 200 mb level. Oil rigs in the
southeastern quadrant have reported sustained hurricane-force winds
during the past few hours, with oil rig VEP717 reporting a sustained
wind of 85 kt more than 80 nmi from the center of Gonzalo. Since
this report originated from a height of 130 meters, the initial
intensity will remain at 75 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 055/45 kt. The global and regional
models are in good agreement on Gonzalo turning east-northeastward
during the next 12 hours or so, and then maintaining that motion
over the far north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates in 2-3
days. The official track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF models, and is near the latest forecast guidance from the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center.

Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today, and
gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time,
post-tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain storm-force winds over
the north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC intensity
forecast is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 49.0N 47.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 52.0N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1200Z 54.5N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0000Z 57.0N 6.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1200Z 62.1N 2.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#68 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:40 pm

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.6N 41.8W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM NE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
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ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#69 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:52 pm

000
WTNT43 KNHC 192039
TCDAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

The combined effect of sea-surface temperatures around 10C and
southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 40 kt has finally
taken its toll on Gonzalo. The upper-level circulation is tilted
more than 100 nmi to the northeast of the low-level circulation
center, and an abundance of cold-air stratocumulus clouds has
wrapped all the way around the entire low-level circulation. Gonzalo
looks like a frontal low in satellite imagery, suggesting that the
system has completed its transformation into an extratropical
cyclone. The initial intensity has been decreased to 70 kt, which is
consistent with various decay models. Only gradual weakening is
expected during the next 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 060/45 kt. Gonzalo has turned toward
the east-northeast, and that general motion is expected for the next
24-36 hours, after which the cyclone is forecast to slow down
considerably and turn northward and be absorbed by a larger low
pressure system north of the British Isles by 72 hours. The NHC
track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and
is near the latest forecast guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

This is the last NHC advisory on Gonzalo. Additional information on
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 51.6N 41.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 20/0600Z 53.6N 31.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1800Z 56.5N 15.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0600Z 58.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1800Z 64.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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