ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

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ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2014 12:45 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
130 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 58.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...ST. MARTIN...
AND ST. BARTHELEMY

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ST.MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR BARBUDA...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST.MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST.MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND...AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD...AND AFFECT
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2014 12:55 pm

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
130 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low
pressure system east of the Leeward islands found SFMR surface
winds of tropical storm force, and based on this information the
low has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gonzalo.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/09 kt. Due to a
strong ridge to the north of Gonzalo, the cyclone is expected to
move generally westward at around 10 kt for the next 24 hours or so,
followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest in the 36-72 hour
time frame. After that time, a deep-layer trough moving off of
the U.S. east coast is expected to erode the ridge, causing Gonzalo
to move slowly northwestward to northward. The NHC track forecast
closely follows the consensus model TVCN.

The small size of Gonzalo, combined with low shear conditions less
than 10 kt and SSTs of at least 29C, argue for at least steady
strengthening throughout the forecast period. There will likely be
occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air that may briefly slow
the intensification process, but those occurrences should generally
be short-lived. The intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS
intensity model.

NOTE: Data from the reconnaissance aircraft has been received by the
NHC, but telecommunications problems are preventing the
dissemination of these data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1730Z 16.4N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 16.4N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.5N 61.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 17.2N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 18.2N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 20.5N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 22.0N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 24.0N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:38 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...GONZALO STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 59.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LEEWARD ISLANDS BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND APPROACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY MONDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH
AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD...AND REACH THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:57 pm

5 PM Discussion was released late.


TROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Gonzalo
this afternoon has found found 850-mb maximum flight-level winds of
47 kt in the northeastern quadrant along with reliable SFMR surface
winds of 39-41 kt. The aircraft also measured a central pressure of
1003-1004 mb and on-board radar indicated that a primitive eye with
a diameter of 10 n mi was developing. Based on these data, the
initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt, which could be a
little conservative.

The initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt based on reconnaissance
data. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast
or reasoning. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of Gonzalo
should keep the cyclone moving westward at around 10 kt for the next
24 hours, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest by 36
hours. By 72 hours, a strong mid-latitude trough is expected to move
off of the U.S. east coast and act to erode the ridge to the north
of Hispaniola, allowing Gonzalo to move slowly northwestward to
northward into the weakness in the ridge. The NHC model guidance is
in general agreement on this developing track scenario, but there is
considerable spread in the model tracks after 36 hours. The GFS and
the regional models keep Gonzalo weak until after 48 hours, and take
the system well to the east of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
In contrast, the ECMWF and the UKMET show a vertically deep and more
robust tropical cyclone moving more westward in deep-layer easterly
steering flow. Since the official forecast calls for Gonzalo to
become a hurricane within 48 hours, the NHC forecast track lies near
the extreme western edge of the model envelope and close to the more
robust ECMWF model solution.

The combination of the small size of Gonzalo, its precursor eye
feature, low vertical wind shear conditions, SSTs at least 29C, and
colder than normal upper-tropospheric temperatures support at least
a normal rate of intensification throughout the forecast period.
Although occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air could briefly
disrupt the strengthening process, those occurrences should
generally be short-lived due to the strong instability conditions
that will be present. In fact, rapid intensification is a very
distinct possibility, especially if the aforementioned eye feature
continues to develop. The NHC intensity forecast is higher then the
consensus models and follows the a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM
models.

NOTE: Data from the reconnaissance aircraft has been received by the
NHC, but telecommunications problems continue to prevent the
dissemination of these data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 16.4N 59.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 16.5N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 16.9N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 17.9N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.0N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 20.9N 67.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 22.6N 68.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 24.5N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2014 6:39 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...GONZALO HEADING FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 59.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LEEWARD ISLANDS BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND APPROACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY MONDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH
AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD...AND REACH THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:38 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...GONZALO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 60.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND
APPROACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
GONZALO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING....MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH
AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD...AND REACH THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



TROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

The circulation of Gonzalo, which has shown some signs of inner-core
features, is apparent in radar imagery from Guadeloupe, but the
cyclone's overall convective pattern is somewhat disorganized in
satellite imagery. A small area of central convection is noted near
the center, along with a rather linear convective band in the
eastern semicircle. Little deep convection is noted west of the
center, perhaps due to westerly shear of around 10 kt and some dry
air in the mid and upper levels seen in radiosonde data from St.
Maarten. The initial intensity remains 40 kt based on the earlier
aircraft data and a blend of the latest Dvorak data-T numbers from
TAFB and SAB. The SHIPS model shows the shear weakening in 12 to 18
hours, and most of the intensity guidance shows Gonzalo reaching
hurricane status in about 36 hours. Additional intensification is
forecast after that time in a low-shear environment over warm
waters. The new NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and is close to the IVCN consensus through the period.

The initial motion estimate is 275/10, as Gonzalo is being steered
by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. During the next 36 to 48
hours, the cyclone will gradually turn northwestward as it moves
around the western periphery of this ridge. Overall, the guidance
envelope has shifted a little to the right through the first 2 days,
and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction but lies
south of the multi-model consensus and close to the ECMWF. After
that time, most of the guidance shows the cyclone turning northward
into a weakness in the ridge and then accelerating northeastward
ahead of a mid-latitude trough by day 5. There is still a large
amount of along-track spread at these time ranges, with the GFS,
HWRF, GFDL, and GEFS ensemble mean showing a faster northeastward
acceleration, and the slower ECMWF showing the trough missing
Gonzalo and leaving the cyclone moving slowly northeastward
by the end of the period. At days 3 through 5, the NHC forecast is
faster and shows more of a northeastward motion compared to the
previous one, but is much slower than the GFS and south of the
consensus out of respect for the ECMWF model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.6N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.9N 61.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 17.7N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 18.8N 65.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 20.0N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 22.5N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 24.5N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 27.0N 66.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 13, 2014 5:14 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO TO PASS THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...
...RAIN BANDS ALREADY MOVING INTO GUADELOUPE...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 60.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
GONZALO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND NEAR
OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY....WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH
AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD TODAY. SWELLS WILL REACH THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



TROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014

The satellite presentation of Gonzalo has gradually improved
overnight with increased banding features seen in both infrared
satellite images and Guadeloupe radar. The small inner core has
also become a little better defined in the radar imagery. Dvorak
data T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are 3.0 and 3.5, respectively, and
the initial wind speed has been increased to 50 kt. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
cyclone in a few hours, which should provide a better assessment of
Gonzalo's intensity and size. Although some mid-level dry air is
noted to the west of the cyclone, low shear and warm water should
favor strengthening during the next several days. The NHC intensity
forecast calls for steady intensification and Gonzalo is forecast to
become a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours. The updated intensity forecast
is close to the SHIPS model and is very similar to the previous
advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt. Gonzalo is forecast to
turn west-northwestward, then northwestward during the next day or
so, while it moves around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level
ridge over the central subtropical Atlantic. Most of the track
guidance has again shifted slightly eastward during the first 48
hours, and the NHC forecast track has been nudged in that direction.
The NHC forecast is along the southern edge of the guidance envelope
during the first couple of days and is close to the GFS and ECMWF
models. After that time, Gonzalo is forecast to turn northward
then north-northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough that
approaches the east coast of the United States in about 4 days.
Although the track guidance is in general agreement on this
scenario, there remains large differences in the forward speed
of the cyclone later in the period. The GFS, UKMET, and HWRF
showing more north-northeastward acceleration than the ECMWF. The
updated NHC track forecast is near the GFS/ECMWF consensus, which
is faster than the previous advisory.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 16.8N 60.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 17.4N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 18.6N 64.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 20.2N 65.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 21.5N 67.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 23.8N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 26.0N 67.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 29.0N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:55 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO BEGINNING TO MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ON ANTIGUA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 61.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM N OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE
GUADELOUPE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST.
GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF GONZALO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND NEAR OR
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE AIRCRAFT IS
STILL INVESTIGATING GONZALO...AND IT COULD POSSIBLY FIND STRONGER
WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER. ANTIGUA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45
MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY....WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS
EVENING.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH
AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD TODAY. SWELLS WILL REACH THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:53 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ON ANTIGUA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 61.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST.
MARTIN...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTIN HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST.
MAARTIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.9 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF GONZALO WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ANTIGUA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY WHILE IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ANTIGUA REPORTED
A SUSTAINED WIND OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H AND A GUST TO 88 MPH...142
KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
992 MB...29.30 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY....WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH
AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD TODAY. SWELLS WILL REACH THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


TROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Gonzalo
this morning found 850 mb maximum flight-level winds of 64 kt along
with reliable SFMR surface winds near 55 kt in the northeastern
quadrant, plus a central pressure of 992 mb. In addition, the
Antigua-Barbuda Meteorological Service recently reported a sustained
wind of 58 kt and a gust to 76 kt. Based on these data, the
intensity has been increased to 55 kt. Reports from the aircraft
radar and Antigua-Barbuda also indicate the center of Gonzalo passed
over Antigua between 1300-1400 UTC.

The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. Gonzalo is expected to
continue to move west-northwestward today, and turn toward the
northwest after 24 hours when the cyclone clears the northern Lesser
Antilles. After that, the mid-level ridge to the north of Gonzalo is
expected to break down as a strong mid-latitude trough moving off of
the U.S. east and southeast coasts approaches the area north of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in about 72 hours. The weakening ridge
will allow Gonzalo to move slowly northward, and then turn toward
the northeast and accelerate on Days 4 and 5. The latest NHC model
guidance appears to have stabilized and has no longer made any
eastward shifts, so the official forecast track is just an update of
the previous advisory track, which lies close to a blend of the GFEX
and TVCN consensus models.

The satellite presentation of Gonzalo has continued to improve, and
radar data from Guadeloupe indicates that a small but intense vortex
may have passed over Antigua earlier this morning. Overall, the
improvement in the horizontal and vertical structure of Gonzalo the
past several hours, along with weak vertical wind shear and SSTs
greater than 29C, should allow for at least steady strengthening of
the cyclone through the next 96 hours. By 120 hours, southwesterly
wind shear of around 20 kt is expected to affect Gonzalo, which
should induce a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast and the SHIPS intensity model.

Gonzalo is forecast to be reaching hurricane strength by the time it
passes near the British Virgin Islands, and so a hurricane warning
is in effect there. Although hurricane conditions are not currently
expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands, only a slight deviation to the
left of the forecast track, or a more rapid strengthening of the
storm, would result in the need to extend the hurricane warning into
those areas. Interests in the hurricane watch area are reminded that
the watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...and in this
case within 24 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 17.2N 61.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 18.0N 63.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 19.4N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 20.8N 66.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 22.4N 67.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 24.8N 68.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 27.4N 66.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 31.7N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:51 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
200 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 62.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
GUADELOUPE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST.
GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THIS
EVENING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY....WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH
AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD. SWELLS WILL REACH THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 13, 2014 1:43 pm

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
225 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...NEW HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ANGUILLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTIN HAS
ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. MAARTIN.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:38 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 62.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
GUADELOUPE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST.
GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC OCEAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND GONZALO COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY
WHEN IT IS LOCATED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. NOTE THAT
WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS
ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS
ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE BRITISH AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:49 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NEAR ANGUILLA AND ST. MARTIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 63.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC OCEAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY WHEN IT IS LOCATED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 39
MPH...63 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. NOTE THAT
WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS
ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS
ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE BRITISH AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:40 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR ST. MAARTEN WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND ST.
CROIX HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS AND
NEVIS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE
63.4 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL PASS
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE BRITISH AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

The eye of Gonzalo moved just north of St. Maarten and over Anguilla
earlier this evening. St. Maarten reported a peak 2-minute wind of
55 kt and a gust of 65 kt with a minimum pressure of 994 mb. Data
from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier indicated peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of around 85 kt, which support an intensity of 75
kt for this advisory. This intensity is also supported by the latest
Dvorak classification of T4.5 from TAFB. The next Hurricane Hunter
aircraft will be investigating Gonzalo around 0600 UTC.

Gonzalo appears to be poised to intensify, perhaps rapidly, in the
next day or so. The inner-core features are quite distinct in
recent microwave imagery and a warm spot has recently developed in
infrared imagery with a more symmetric cloud pattern. Given these
trends and the overall favorable environment, the intensity
forecast has been adjusted upward and is close to the the SHIPS
model on the high end of the intensity guidance through the first 48
hours, showing Gonzalo becoming a major hurricane in about 36 hours.
As Gonzalo gains latitude later in the period, southwesterly shear
ahead of a mid-latitude trough and cooler SSTs should result in
gradual weakening.

The eye of Gonzalo is now evident in WSR-88D imagery from San Juan,
and the initial motion estimate is 315/10. Overall, the track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the hurricane will
move northwestward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge and
then accelerate northward and northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude
trough moving off the east coast of the United States. The new NHC
track forecast has been shifted a little to the right in the first
48 hours due to the initial position and motion and an adjustment
and toward the latest multi-model consensus. Beyond that time, the
new NHC forecast is largely and update of the previous one and is
close to but a bit slower than a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models,
especially by day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 18.7N 63.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 19.8N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 21.5N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 23.1N 67.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 24.5N 68.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 27.3N 67.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 31.5N 65.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 37.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:40 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

...GONZALO MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS....
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 64.4W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ANGUILLA TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO TODAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 974 MB...28.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
RAPIDLY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND...BRITISH AND U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
PUERTO RICO TODAY. SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA



HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that Gonzalo
has continued to quickly strengthen overnight while the eye has
passed just northeast of the British Virgin Islands. The aircraft
measured a peak flight-level wind of 116 kt in the northeastern
eyewall and SFMR surface winds of 92 kt. A blend of these data yield
an initial intensity of 95 kt for this advisory. The SHIPS model
and a UW-CIMSS shear analysis show about 15 to 20 kt of south-
southwesterly shear over Gonzalo, which may be why the eye has not
become apparent in infrared imagery. The shear is forecast to
decrease and remain low during the next few days while the hurricane
moves over warm water. This should allow for additional
strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. Eyewall cycles are
likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity after that time. In
about 3 days, gradual weakening is predicted to begin as Gonzalo
will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures
and into an area of increasing southwesterly shear. The updated NHC
intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance, and is a little
higher than the previous advisory through 72 hours due to the
higher initial intensity.

Gonzalo is moving northwestward or 315/11 kt. The hurricane is
expected to remain on a northwestward heading during the next 24 to
36 hours. After that time, Gonzalo should turn northward, then
north-northeastward ahead a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to
move off the east coast of the United States in 2 to 3 days. Late
in the period, the hurricane should accelerate northeastward in
deep layer southwesterly flow over the North Atlantic. The track
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there remains
some spread in the forward speed of the hurricane after 72 hours.
The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
is close to the GFEX and TVCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 19.6N 64.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 21.0N 65.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 22.7N 67.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 24.1N 68.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 25.4N 68.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 28.9N 67.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 34.5N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 43.5N 56.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:59 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

...GONZALO MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN....
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 64.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ANGUILLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE
GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN NEAR LATITUDE 19.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
GONZALO WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
RAPIDLY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THOSE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
PUERTO RICO TODAY. SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:54 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

...GONZALO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN....
...STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 65.2W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE
GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN NEAR LATITUDE 20.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
GONZALO WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC TODAY...
AND REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY...AND POSSIBLY
BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 55
MILES...90 KM NORTH OF THE CENTER OF GONZALO REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H AND A GUST TO 52 MPH...83 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
RAPIDLY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THOSE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
PUERTO RICO TODAY. SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and the San
Juan Doppler weather radar indicate that the earlier intensification
process has abated, which is apparently due to some shear-induced
disruption of the eye. Maximum 700 mb flight-level winds observed
thus far are 112 kt and maximum SFMR winds through most of the
morning have been around 93 kt. The central pressure has also
leveled off during the past few hours at around 973 mb. A blend of
the flight-level surface-wind conversion and SFMR winds support
maintaining an intensity of 95 kt.

Gonzalo continues to move northwestward with a motion of 315/11 kt.
There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. The NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on the
hurricane continuing to move northwestward around the southwestern
for periphery of a deep-layer ridge the during the next 36 hours.
After that, the western portion of the ridge is expected to weaken
as a strong mid-latitude trough and associated cold front currently
located over the southeastern U.S. moves eastward across the Bahamas
by 48 hours. The increasing southwesterly flow ahead of those
systems should gradually accelerate Gonzalo toward the northeast,
with the cyclone potentially threatening Bermuda in about three
days' time. Gonzalo is expected to merge with the strong cold front
or become extratropical by 120 hours. The new track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of
the GFEX and TVCA consensus models.

Recent radar and satellite data indicate that the eye of Gonzalo has
been clearing out and gradually becoming better defined with a
diameter of about 20 nmi. Once the eyewall stabilizes again,
intensification will likely resume, and in fact the reconnaissance
aircraft a few moments ago observed an SFMR wind of 99 kt that
suggests this intensification is beginning. Buoy data indicate that
water temperatures are slightly cooler than what the SHIPS model is
indicating, probably due to cold upwelling created by the wake of
former Hurricane Fay, but they are still sufficiently warm enough to
support a category 4 hurricane. The best vertical shear conditions
and upper-level outflow regime are expected to occur on Wednesday
and into Thursday morning, and that is when Gonzalo is expected to
strengthen into a category 4 hurricane. Afterwards, eyewall cycles
and possible cold upwelling beneath the hurricane are likely to
cause some fluctuations in the intensity. By 72 hours, increasing
southwesterly wind shear ahead of the aforementioned deep trough and
strong cold front is expected to induce weakening. By 120 hours,
Gonzalo should be over cold waters of the North Atlantic and
experiencing vertical shear of more than 50 kt, which should result
in the cyclone becoming a extratropical low. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is above all of the
available intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 20.3N 65.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 21.7N 66.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 23.3N 67.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 24.6N 68.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 26.1N 68.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 30.4N 66.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 37.4N 62.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 46.8N 53.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:35 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

...GONZALO BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 66.0W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GONZALO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE
GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS NOW A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...NOAA BUOY 41043
LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
GONZALO REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H AND A GUST TO
56 MPH...91 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier
today indicated flight-level and SFMR wind data that were just below
the threshold of a major hurricane. On the last flight leg, the
aircraft measured a central pressure of 971 mb, which was down 2 mb
from what was measured at the start of the mission. The eye had also
contracted from a 20 nmi diameter down to about 16 nmi on the last
report. Recent data from the NOAA Doppler radar in San Juan indicate
that the eye has contracted to about 15 nmi at an altitude of about
36,000 ft since the aircraft departed a few hours ago, signifying
that the eye diameter is likely smaller at lower altitudes. In
addition, satellite imagery indicates that the eye has cleared out
and warmed while cloud tops have cooled significantly in the
surrounding eyewall. Based on the trends noted in the radar and
satellite data, the intensity has been increased to 100 kt, which is
supported by a UW-CIMSS ADT value of T5.4/100 kt.

Gonzalo continues to move steadily northwestward with a motion of
320/11 kt. The NHC model guidance is tightly packed and remains is
in excellent agreement on Gonzalo moving steadily northwestward
around the periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to its north
during the next 36 hours or so. By 48 hours, a deep mid-tropospheric
trough and cold front are expected to move eastward across the
Bahamas and weaken the western portion of the ridge. This should
allow the cyclone to turn slowly northward, and then accelerate
northeastward by 72 hours ahead of the aforementioned trough and
front, with the hurricane potentially threatening Bermuda on Day 3.
Gonzalo is expected to merge with the cold front or become
extratropical by 120 hours. The new track forecast is just an update
of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the
GFEX and TVCA consensus models.

With the eye of Gonzalo having contracted and become more distinct
in satellite, radar, and recon wind data, the system appears primed
for intensification into a category 4 hurricane later tonight or
on Wednesday. Sea-surface temperatures ahead of the cyclone are
sufficiently warm enough at 28C-28.5C to support a category 4
hurricane through at least the next 36 hours. The global models
continue to indicate that the best vertical shear conditions and 200
mb upper-level outflow pattern are expected to occur on Wednesday
and continue into Thursday morning. Afterwards, eyewall cycles and
possible cold upwelling beneath the hurricane are likely to cause
some fluctuations in the intensity. By 72 hours, increasing vertical
wind shear ahead of the aforementioned deep trough is expected to
induce weakening. By 120 hours, Gonzalo will be over sub-20C SSTs in
the North Atlantic and experiencing vertical shear of 50-60 kt,
which should result in the cyclone becoming an extratropical low.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
remains above all of the available intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 21.2N 66.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 22.5N 67.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 24.0N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 25.4N 68.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 27.2N 68.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 32.0N 65.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 39.9N 60.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 49.0N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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GONZALO:Obs / Local WS / Reports= Bermuda / E Can /N Scotia

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:29 pm

8:45 PM ADT Tuesday 14 October 2014
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA


For hurricane Gonzalo.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 AM ADT.

Hurricane Gonzalo expected to track north-northeastward later this week - potential impacts over land.

Hurricane Gonzalo intensified quickly this past weekend and is moving away from the northeast caribbean. It is forecast to intensify to category-3 intensity this week. A cold front extending well into the subtropics will guide the hurricane northward near Bermuda, potentially drawing moisture over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Friday. The centre of the storm may track anywhere from just east of Cape Breton to well offshore over the Grand Banks - which is approximately a 600-km span of uncertainty. Timing of the storm's possible impact over land or closest offshore approach will be in the late Friday to late Saturday timeframe.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre will begin issuing regular bulletins on Wednesday since the storm is expected to at least affect our offshore marine district.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:54 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

...GONZALO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH 125 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 66.6W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION BY LATE THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY
SOME WEAKENING AFTER THAT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COAST
OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL REACH THE
BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES BY THURSDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

NNNN



HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that Gonzalo has continued to strengthen. The plane
reported maximum flight-level of 125 kt in the northeastern
quadrant and peak SFMR winds of 108 kt. The minimum surface pressure
also has fallen about 17 mb during the last 9 hours to 954 mb.
Satellite images show that the eye has warmed and shrunk to a
diameter of 10 n mi while the inner core has generally become better
defined. However, Gonzalo has been maintaining an asymmetric
distribution of convection, presumably due to around 15 kt of
south-southwesterly shear of affecting the cyclone according to the
latest SHIPS and UW-CIMSS shear analyses. A blend of the flight-
level and SFMR wind data is used to raise the initial intensity of
110 kt.

Water vapor imagery and cloud-tracked wind vectors show an upper-
level trough between Bermuda and the southeastern U.S. responsible
for the south-southwesterly shear over Gonzalo, but the shear should
not be enough to prevent additional intensification from taking
place over warm waters of 28-29 deg C during the next day or so.
At some point during this time, fluctuations in strength due to
difficult-to-forecast inner core evolution are probable. By 72
hours, a significant increase in south-southwesterly shear should
induce a considerable weakening trend. Increasing baroclinicity in
the near-storm environment, much cooler waters, and drier and more
stable air wrapping around the hurricane's circulation should result
in extratropical transition by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast is
about the same as the previous one, and is near or higher than the
highest intensity guidance (SHIPS/LGEM) through 36 hours but close
to the multi-model consensus after that.

Gonzalo has continued to move on a northwestward course, or 320/11,
though the center has wobbled a bit toward the left during the
last couple of hours. The hurricane should gradually turn north-
northwestward and then northward and slow down as it moves around
the western periphery of an eastward-shifting central Atlantic ridge
during the next 24 to 36 hours. By 48 hours, Gonzalo should
encounter a deep-layer south-southwesterly flow associated with a
potent mid-latitude trough swinging out of the east-central United
States. This flow pattern should turn Gonzalo north-northeastward
with increasing forward speed. Although the track guidance is
tightly clustered through 72 hours, there is still some along-track
spread in the model solutions, with the ECMWF depicting a weaker and
much-slower-moving cyclone. The new NHC forecast places less weight
on the ECMWF, owing to Gonzalo's current intensity. The official NHC
forecast lies on the far eastern side of the guidance envelope and
to the right of the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 22.2N 66.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 23.4N 67.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 24.9N 68.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 26.3N 68.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 28.5N 67.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 34.7N 64.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 45.1N 56.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0000Z 52.5N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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