ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#41 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:53 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO HEADING FOR BERMUDA...
...LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 66.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR
OR OVER BERMUDA. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATER THIS
MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER
THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN
GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#42 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2014 3:24 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO ON BERMUDA RADAR...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 66.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA EARLY THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/H. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR
OR OVER BERMUDA. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT ONCE
GONZALO MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 947 MB...27.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA LATER
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014


Gonzalo is under surveillance by a NOAA hurricane hunter plane and
its eye is in the scope of the Bermuda radar. Maximum winds
measured so far by the SFMR on board the plane are 104 kt, and on
this basis the initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt. This slight
weakening is in agreement with the fact that the eye on satellite is
not as distinct as it was 12 hours ago, and the Dvorak t-numbers are
decreasing.

Although it appears that a gradual weakening has begun, Gonzalo is
expected to be a dangerous Category 3 hurricane as it
moves near or over Bermuda later today. After that time, increasing
shear and cooler waters along the track of the hurricane should
result in a faster weakening. Gonzalo is likely to transition
into a post-tropical cyclone by 36 to 48 hours as it moves near or
south of Newfoundland, and become fully extratropical thereafter.

Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving
toward the north-northeast or 025 degrees at 14 kt. Gonzalo should
accelerate and turn to the northeast once it becomes completely
embedded within the faster southwesterly mid-latitude flow ahead of
a deepening trough along the east coast of the United States. The
guidance remains tightly clustered, and
There is no reason to deviate much from the previous NHC forecast
which shows a powerful hurricane passing near or over Bermuda
later today, and a post-tropical cyclone passing south of
Newfoundland in about 36 to 48 hours.

Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo
continues on the current NHC forecast track. Although specific
amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
Gonzalo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 30.4N 66.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 32.6N 64.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 36.3N 62.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 41.5N 58.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 48.0N 49.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1200Z 55.0N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#43 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2014 3:25 pm

HURRICANE GONZALO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
400 PM AST WED OCT 17 2014

...400 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO APPROACHING BERMUDA...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM AST...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 65.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 025 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#44 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2014 3:55 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO VERY NEAR BERMUDA...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 65.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE
OF GONZALO WILL BE NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN A FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT GONZALO IS
EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER
BERMUDA. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SATURDAY ONCE GONZALO
MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. BERMUDA AIRPORT RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO
63 MPH...102 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 949 MB...28.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA VERY
SOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD
SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT
THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

Another reconnaissance plane has been in and around the eye of
Gonzalo and found no significant change in the structure of the
hurricane. Maximum flight-level winds were 124 kt, but the highest
SFMR wind was 88 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
estimated to be 100 kt. The minimum central pressure remains around
949 mb. Although there has been a slight decrease in the surface
winds, no significant change in intensity is expected before the eye
crosses Bermuda in a few hours. Due to the large observed
differential between the winds at the surface and aloft, a higher
than normal gust factor has been used in this advisory.

After Gonzalo passes Bermuda, increasing shear and cooler waters
along the track of the hurricane should result in a faster
weakening. Gonzalo is likely to transition into a post-tropical
cyclone by 36 to 48 hours as it moves near or south of Newfoundland.
This is the consensus of most of the global models.

Aircraft fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving toward the
north-northeast or 025 degrees at 14 kt. Gonzalo should accelerate
and turn to the northeast once it becomes completely embedded within
the faster southwesterly mid-latitude flow ahead of a deepening
trough along the east coast of the United States. There has been no
change in the guidance, and the NHC forecast is similar to the
previous one.

Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely. Although specific
amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
Gonzalo.

Given the proximity of this dangerous hurricane to Bermuda, NHC will
provide hourly position updates until Gonzalo clears Bermuda.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 31.7N 65.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 34.1N 63.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 38.7N 60.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 44.7N 54.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 50.5N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1800Z 56.5N 18.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1800Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#45 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2014 5:07 pm

HURRICANE GONZALO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
600 PM AST WED OCT 17 2014

...600 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...BERMUDA IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO...

THE BERMUDA AIRPORT RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH...107
KM/H. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 83 MPH...133 KM/H AND A GUST TO 112
MPH...180 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION
SITE AT COMMISSIONER'S POINT BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM AST...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 65.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 025 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#46 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2014 5:59 pm

HURRICANE GONZALO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
700 PM AST WED OCT 17 2014

...700 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LASHING BERMUDA...

DURING THE PAST FEW MINUTES...THE BERMUDA AIRPORT REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 76 MPH...122 KM/H.

DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SHIP IN THE BERMUDA HARBOR REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...96 KM/H.

A SUSTAINED WIND OF 98 MPH...158 KM/H AND A GUST TO 127 MPH...204
KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT
COMMISSIONER'S POINT BERMUDA.

A SUSTAINED WIND OF 88 MPH...142 KM/H AND A GUST TO 125 MPH...202
KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT ST.
DAVIDS BERMUDA NEAR THE AIRPORT.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 65.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 025 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#47 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2014 7:00 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...BERMUDA IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGE EYE OF DANGEROUS
HURRICANE GONZALO...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
AGAIN AFTER THE EYE PASSES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 64.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PEOPLE SHOULD NOT VENTURE OUT INTO THE CALM PERIOD OF THE EYE SINCE
STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY AFTER THE EYE PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE
GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY THE BERMUDA RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
BERMUDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AFTER GONZALO MOVES PAST BERMUDA TONIGHT. FASTER WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY ONCE GONZALO MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 98 MPH...158 KM/H AND A GUST TO
134 MPH...215 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION
SITE AT COMMISSIONER'S POINT BERMUDA. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 90 MPH...
145 KM/H AND A GUST TO 130 MPH...209 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT
AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT ST. DAVIDS BERMUDA NEAR THE AIRPORT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN
AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR ON BERMUDA IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON BERMUDA IN AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL PASSES NORTH
OF THE ISLAND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON
THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#48 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2014 7:56 pm

HURRICANE GONZALO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
900 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...900 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...LARGE EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO OVER BERMUDA...

AT APPROXIMATELY 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE
OF HURRICANE GONZALO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF
BERMUDA...BASED ON DATA FROM THE BERMUDA RADAR...ISLAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...AND REPORTS FROM AN AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR LOCATED
IN DEVONSHIRE PARISH BERMUDA.

DURING THE PAST HOUR...THE BERMUDA AIRPORT REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 74 MPH...119 KM/H AND A GUST TO 96 MPH...154 KM/H BEFORE THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE EYE MOVED OVER THE AIRPORT.

SUMMARY OF 900 PM AST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 64.8W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#49 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2014 8:57 pm

HURRICANE GONZALO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1000 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...1000 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...CENTER OF LARGE EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVING NORTH
OF BERMUDA...

DURING THE PAST HOUR...WINDS AT THE BERMUDA AIRPORT ON THE
NORTHEASTERN END OF THE ISLAND HAVE SWITCHED TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H AND A GUST TO
60 MPH...96 KM/H.

DURING THE PAST HOUR...WINDS AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE AT
COMMISSIONER'S POINT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF BERMUDA HAVE
SWITCHED TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 68 MPH...
110 KM/H AND A GUST TO 90 MPH...144 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM AST...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 64.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#50 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:56 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...LARGE EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVING AWAY FROM
BERMUDA...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE OCCURRING
AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 64.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON BERMUDA SHORTLY...
AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
FOLLOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTERWARDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE
GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY THE BERMUDA RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
BERMUDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH FASTER WEAKENING
FORECAST TO OCCUR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN GONZALO MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...96 KM/H AND A GUST TO
74 MPH...119 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE BERMUDA AIRPORT. A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 84 MPH...135 KM/H AND A GUST TO 119 MPH...191 KM/H
WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT
COMMISSIONER'S POINT BERMUDA. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH...
94 KM/H AND A GUST TO 97 MPH...156 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT
AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT ST. DAVIDS BERMUDA NEAR THE AIRPORT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY ON
BERMUDA AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL PASSES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ISLAND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON
THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo passed over the central portion of the island of
Bermuda at around 0030 UTC this evening based on Bermuda radar data,
various surface observations on the island, and pressure reports
from an amateur radio operator -- call sign VP9NI -- located in
Devonshire Parish. The initial intensity of 95 kt is based on
recent ADT values of 97 kt.

Radar fixes indicate that Gonzalo is moving north-northeastward or
030/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track
forecast or reasoning based on the tightly packed NHC model
guidance. The hurricane should begin to accelerate toward the
northeast as Gonzalo becomes embedded deeper within the increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of a strong mid-latitude trough located
off of the U.S. east coast. By 36 hours, Gonzalo is expected to be
passing just to the southeast of Newfoundland as a strong
post-tropical cyclone. The official forecast track is similar to
the previous advisory and is near the consensus model TVCA.

Slow weakening is expected for the next 12 hours or so due to
gradually increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, followed by
more rapid weakening after that as Gonzalo moves over sub-24C SSTs
by 24 hours, and moves over even colder ocean tempratures after
that. Gonzalo is forecast to transition into a post-tropical
cyclone by 36 hours as it passes near or to the southeast of
Newfoundland.

The following information is provided at the request of the Bermuda
Weather Service -- damage to the old and new hospitals has been
reported, the AWOS weather sensors at the Bermuda International
Airport have been damaged due to saltwater inundation and are
inoperable, and the RCC Bermuda Radio Maritime Operations Center at
St. Georges has been damaged and is inoperable.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 32.7N 64.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 35.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 41.2N 57.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 47.0N 49.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/0000Z 52.0N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0000Z 57.0N 11.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#51 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:14 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO QUICKLY MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 63.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BERMUDA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING AND PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. A WIND GUST OF 46 MPH...74 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT THE BERMUDA AIRPORT. A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...86 KM/H...
WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT
COMMISSIONER'S POINT BERMUDA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WILL CONTINUE ON BERMUDA EARLY THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN
NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ON BERMUDA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAIN WILL BE ENDING THIS MORNING ON BERMUDA AS GONZALO
MOVES AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

The eye of Gonzalo is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery,
but an enhanced area of cold cloud tops is still noted near the
center position. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt
based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a blend of the
latest ADT CI and final-T numbers. Steady weakening is forecast
during the next 24 hours while Gonzalo moves across cooler waters.
The cyclone will cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream by 24 hours
and should be extratropical shortly after that time. Slow decay is
forecast during the extratropical phase before the cyclone
dissipates in about 4 days.

The initial motion estimate is 030/19, as Gonzalo is embedded in
southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to the southeast and a
deep-layer trough moving offshore of eastern North America. Gonzalo
should pass near or just southeast of Newfoundland in 24 to 36 hours
and then move rapidly eastward across the north Atlantic until
dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of
the previous one through 36 hours due to a westward shift in the
track guidance this cycle. After that time, the NHC forecast is
largely an update of the previous one.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 34.7N 63.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 38.2N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 44.2N 54.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 49.7N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/0600Z 53.0N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0600Z 56.0N 3.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#52 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:16 am

Warnings

5:15 AM NDT Saturday 18 October 2014
Rainfall warning in effect for:
•Avalon Peninsula Southeast

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Hurricane Gonzalo currently northeast of Bermuda will gradually weaken as it moves northeastward today and passes just southeast of the Avalon Peninsula early Sunday. Heavy rain and gusty winds associated with Gonzalo will move over the Avalon Peninsula near midnight and ease early Sunday morning as the storm moves quickly away. Rainfall amounts of 30 mm with locally higher amounts of 50 mm or more are expected. In addition high rainfall rates of 25 mm/h are possible.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Rainfall Warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Stay up to date with Weatheradio or your local media. Email reports of severe weather to weatherNLWO@ec.gc.ca or call 1-877-815-9900. You may tweet reports using the hashtag #NLwx.



Watches

3:46 AM ADT Saturday 18 October 2014
Tropical storm watch in effect for:
•Avalon Peninsula Southeast

Tropical storm-force winds of possible 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Gonzalo may occur over the above regions.

Easterly winds will build on Saturday evening and shift over to northwest Sunday morning as Hurricane Gonzalo passes. Along south to southwest facing shorelines, waves possibly in excess on 7-10 metres will also develop overnight into Sunday morning. This may produce local flooding near high tide at dawn. If the storm tracks further north, the winds will be south to southwest and warnings may need to be issued.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours.

By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.



Statements

5:31 AM NDT Saturday 18 October 2014
Special weather statement in effect for:
•Avalon Peninsula Southeast

Higher than normal water levels expected Sunday morning.

High seas associated with hurricane Gonzalo are expected to push onto the southern coast of the Avalon Peninsula Sunday morning. This combined with high tides and strong winds will likely result in higher than normal water levels. In addition, large waves and pounding surf can be expected along southwestern facing coastlines. As a result, some areas may experience coastal flooding, especially along the shoreline between st. Bride's and Trepassey.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#53 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 7:31 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...WEATHER IMPROVING IN BERMUDA AS GONZALO QUICKLY MOVES
AWAY...
...FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 62.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING AND PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ON BERMUDA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#54 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 7:48 am

8:45 AM ADT Saturday 18 October 2014
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA


For hurricane Gonzalo.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

After making a direct hit on Bermuda last evening, hurricane Gonzalo is accelerating to the northeast and expected to track near or southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland early Sunday morning.

1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 AM ADT.

Location: near 35.8 north 62.5 west.

About 430 kilometres north-northeast of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 157 km/hour.

Present movement: north-northeast at 37 km/hour.

Minimum central pressure: 958 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

The latest indications are that the track could range from St. Mary's Bay to about 150 kilometres southeast of Cape Race. This represents a range of about 200 kilometres with about a 30 percent chance of the storm centre making landfall on the Southern Avalon Peninsula.

Tropical storm watches are in effect for the Avalon Peninsula, with the exception of Avalon Peninsula North, beginning tonight.The Newfoundland and Labrador weather office has issued rainfall warnings for the Avalon Peninsula.

A. Wind.

Winds associated with Gonzalo will begin to affect the Avalon Peninsula near midnight tonight and will increase overnight to 50 gusting to 80 km/h.

B. Rainfall.

Much of Southeastern Newfoundland will receive rainfall as a result of Gonzalo's passage. The bulk of the rainfall from Gonzalo is currently expected to be over the Avalon Peninsula. Current indications are that rain associated with Gonzalo will begin overnight tonight and end by mid morning Sunday. In the areas of heaviest rain, rainfall rates of 25 millimetres per hour for a brief period are possible which could result in a risk of flash flooding.

Rainfall warnings have been issued for the Avalon Peninsula.

C. Surge/waves.

Wave heights will increase quickly along the southern coast of Newfoundland overnight tonight. The largest waves will be along the southern coast of the Avalon Peninsula where wave heights will be in the 5 to 8 metre range and could possibly exceed 10 metres. Elsewhere along the South Coast of Newfoundland, waves of 4 to 6 metres are likely.

Of concern is that high tide along the Southern Avalon Peninsula is near dawn Sunday which could be the approximate time of Gonzalo's passage. High coastal water levels and high waves are likely along Southern Avalon Peninsula early Sunday morning. There is a possibility of local flooding mainly due to wave activity at this time.

Also, the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia will experience large ocean swells of 2 to 3 metres beginning tonight and building to 3 to 5 metres by Sunday morning.

A special weather statement has been issued regarding the waves and high water levels.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

This storm will have heavy impacts over parts of the southern marine areas. Hurricane force winds and significant wave heights in excess of 12 metres are likely over some offshore marine areas, especially those to the right of the storm's track overnight tonight and Sunday. There are also indications that waves could locally exceed 18 metres from the Laurentian Fan into the Southern Grand Banks, with lesser wave heights further north.

Marine warnings summary:

Newfoundland waters: hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for the Northern Grand Banks and the Southwestern Grand Banks. Storm warnings are in effect for the South Coast, East Coast - Cape St. Francis and south, and the Southeastern Grand Banks. A gale warning is in effect for the Funk Island Bank - southern half.

Maritimes waters: a hurricane force wind warning is in effect for Laurentian Fan - southeastern half. Storm warnings are in effect for Laurentian Fan - northwestern half and Banquereau - southeastern half. Gale warnings are in effect for East Scotian Slope - southeastern half and Banquereau northwestern half.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.

Forecaster(s): hatt/mercer/fogarty
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#55 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:56 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 61.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND


HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

Gonzalo's convective canopy is becoming ragged and substantially
asymmetric with the cold clouds primarily seen in the northern
semicircle. Subjective Dvorak and the objective Advanced Dvorak
Technique suggest a range from 65 to 77 kt for the maximum sustained
winds, while the CIMSS Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit estimate
indicates about 85 kt. A blend of these gives 80 kt for the initial
intensity, a considerable drop from the previous advisory. As
Gonzalo will be moving north of the warm Gulf Stream waters and
experiencing increasingly hostile vertical wind shear over the next
day, the hurricane should steadily weaken. In about a day,
extratropical transition should occur, consistent with the FSU
Cyclone Phase Space and SHIPS diagnostic analyses. However, rather
than getting a baroclinic kick after ET, Gonzalo is anticipated by
the global model guidance to continue weakening until dissipation in
about three days. The NHC intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN
multi-model intensity consensus while a tropical cyclone and upon
the GFS and ECMWF global models while the system is extratropical.

Gonzalo is moving toward the north-northeast at 22 kt, as it is
being advected along in the south-southwesterlies north of the
subtropical ridge. The system should accelerate as it gets picked
up by the core of the jet stream and becomes extratropical. The
NHC track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN
multi-model consensus and is just slightly westward of the
previous advisory.

The initial tropical storm and hurricane-force wind radii were
analyzed to be larger than previously indicated based on a
0922Z AMSU pass, as indicated by the CIRA size analyses.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 36.8N 61.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 40.8N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 47.0N 50.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/0000Z 51.3N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/1200Z 53.5N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#56 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:38 am

10:52 AM NDT Saturday 18 October 2014
Rainfall warning in effect for:
•Avalon Peninsula Southeast

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Hurricane Gonzalo has moved northeastward away from Bermuda and will gradually weaken as it moves northeastward today and passes just southeast of the Avalon Peninsula early Sunday. Heavy rain and gusty winds associated with Gonzalo will arrive over the Avalon Peninsula near midnight and ease early Sunday morning as the storm moves quickly away. Rainfall amounts of 30 millimetres with locally higher amounts of 50 millimetres or more are expected. In addition high rainfall rates of 25 mm per hour are possible.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Rainfall Warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Stay up to date with Weatheradio or your local media. Email reports of severe weather to weatherNLWO@ec.gc.ca or call 1-877-815-9900. You may tweet reports using the hashtag #NLwx.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#57 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 12:50 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
200 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 61.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H. THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
DAY AND SHOULD PASS CLOSE OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GONZALO
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT A
DAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#58 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:26 pm

2:45 PM ADT Saturday 18 October 2014
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA


For hurricane Gonzalo.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT.

Gonzalo accelerating to pass by Southeastern Newfoundland early Sunday then into the Grand Banks on Sunday.

1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 PM ADT.

Location: near 38.5 north 60.5 west.

About 1091 kilometres southwest of Cape Race.

Maximum sustained winds: 148 km/hour.

Present movement: northeast at 74 km/hour.

Minimum central pressure: 967 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

The latest indications are that the track could range from St. Mary's Bay to about 150 kilometres southeast of Cape Race. This represents a range of about 200 kilometres with about a 20 percent chance of the storm centre making landfall on the Southern Avalon Peninsula.

Tropical storm watches are in effect for the Avalon Peninsula, with the exception of Avalon Peninsula North, beginning tonight.The Newfoundland and Labrador weather office has issued rainfall warnings for the Avalon Peninsula.

A. Wind.

Winds associated with Gonzalo will begin to affect the Avalon Peninsula near midnight tonight and will increase overnight to 50 gusting to 80 km/h.

B. Rainfall.

Much of Southeastern Newfoundland will receive rainfall as a result of Gonzalo's passage. The bulk of the rainfall from Gonzalo is currently expected to be over the Avalon Peninsula. Current indications are that rain associated with Gonzalo will begin overnight tonight and end by mid morning Sunday. In the areas of heaviest rain, rainfall rates of 25 millimetres per hour for a brief period are possible which could result in a risk of flash flooding.

Rainfall warnings have been issued for the Avalon Peninsula and may be extended to the Burin Peninsula.

C. Surge/waves.

Wave heights will increase quickly along the southern coast of Newfoundland overnight tonight. The largest waves will be along the southern coast of the Avalon Peninsula where wave heights will be in the 5 to 8 metre range and could possibly exceed 10 metres. Elsewhere along the South Coast of Newfoundland, waves of 4 to 6 metres are likely.

Of concern is that high tide along the Southern Avalon Peninsula is near dawn Sunday which may be the time of Gonzalo's passage. High coastal water levels and high waves are likely along Southern Avalon Peninsula early Sunday morning. There is a possibility of local flooding mainly due to wave activity at this time.

Also, the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia will experience large ocean swells of 2 to 3 metres beginning tonight and building to 3 to 5 metres by Sunday morning.

A special weather statement has been issued regarding the waves and high water levels.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

This storm will have heavy impacts over parts of the southern marine areas. Hurricane force winds and significant wave heights in excess of 12 metres are likely over some offshore marine areas, especially those to the right of the storm's track overnight tonight and Sunday. There are also indications that waves could locally exceed 18 metres from the Laurentian Fan into the Southern Grand Banks, with lesser wave heights further north.

Marine warnings summary:

Newfoundland waters: hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for the Northern Grand Banks and the Southwestern Grand Banks. Storm warnings are in effect for the South Coast, East Coast - Cape St. Francis and south, and the Southeastern Grand Banks. A gale warning is in effect for the Funk Island Bank - southern half.

Maritimes waters: a hurricane force wind warning is in effect for Laurentian Fan - southeastern half. Storm warnings are in effect for Laurentian Fan - northwestern half and Banquereau - southeastern half. Gale warnings are in effect for East Scotian Slope - southeastern half and Banquereau northwestern half.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.

Forecaster(s): mercer/fogarty/hatt/couturier
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#59 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:45 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 60.0W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES



HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

After an earlier degradation of the convective cloud pattern,
Gonzalo has made a recent comeback with the cloud shield having
become more symmetrical and the eye a little better defined. The
initial intensity of 80 kt is being maintained at 80 kt based on an
1443 UTC ASCAT-A overpass which showed a peak of 77 kt in the
eastern quadrant and the improved satellite presentation. The same
overpass also indicated that the 64-, 50-, and 34-kt wind radii had
expanded, and this is indicated in the new initial wind radii.

Gonzalo is accelerating rapidly northeastward and is now moving
at a brisk 035/31 kt. The hurricane has become deeply embedded
within the strong southwesterly flow on the east side of a high
amplitude trough located over the northeastern United States
and southeastern Canada. Gonzalo is expected to move northeastward
for the next 24 hours or so and then turn east-northeastward over
the far north Atlantic on Day 2. The official forecast track is
similar to the previous advisory track, and closely follows the
consensus model TVCA. The post-tropical portion of the track
forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

As Gonzalo continues to gain latitude, the cyclone's wind field
should continue to expand, accompanied by only slow weakening.
Gonzalo will be moving over sub-20C SSTs by 12 hours and be under
southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt, which is
expected to result in transition to a strong post-tropical
extratropical cyclone by 24 hours. Gradual weakening is expected
after the transition occurs until dissipation occurs in about 72
hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model
through 24 hours, and then is based on input from the Ocean
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 39.3N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 44.0N 54.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 49.6N 45.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/0600Z 52.5N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/1800Z 55.5N 17.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Advisories

#60 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:47 pm

Watches

6:36 PM ADT Saturday 18 October 2014
Tropical storm watch in effect for:
•Avalon Peninsula Southeast

Tropical storm-force winds of possible 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Gonzalo may occur over the above regions.

Easterly winds will build on Saturday evening and shift over to northwest Sunday morning as Hurricane Gonzalo passes. Along south to southwest facing shorelines, waves possibly in excess of 7-10 metres will also develop overnight into Sunday morning. This may produce local flooding near high tide at dawn. If the storm tracks further north, the winds will be stronger from the south to southwest and warnings may need to be issued.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours.

By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.
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