CPAC: ANA - Recon

[Kingarabian]

993.1 mb
(~ 29.33 inHg)

So pressure is up but winds the same.

[Kingarabian]

20.35N 159.29W center fix?

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 191100
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 07 20141019
105100 2033N 15930W 6975 03064 9922 +122 +100 098021 025 072 007 00
105130 2031N 15930W 6984 03044 9905 +130 +098 109018 019 047 005 00
105200 2030N 15931W 6982 03044 9893 +138 +092 115012 018 025 002 03
105230 2028N 15931W 6986 03038 9886 +143 +089 350006 011 020 002 00
105300 2026N 15932W 6974 03054 9886 +145 +087 323016 017 016 004 00
105330 2025N 15933W 6957 03076 9890 +145 +081 322024 028 016 002 03
105400 2024N 15935W 6953 03088 9893 +144 +090 322026 028 020 003 00
105430 2022N 15936W 6983 03050 9892 +151 +085 311035 044 024 002 00
105500 2021N 15937W 6977 03067 9918 +136 +074 306061 080 026 003 00
105530 2020N 15939W 6983 03081 9938 +135 +072 318069 081 032 004 00
105600 2019N 15940W 6923 03168 9967 +119 +083 318060 065 031 005 00
105630 2018N 15941W 6961 03132 9987 +115 +072 309055 058 032 001 00
105700 2016N 15943W 6959 03135 0000 +108 +071 311051 054 032 001 00
105730 2015N 15944W 6959 03137 0011 +102 +074 325049 050 043 005 00
105800 2014N 15945W 6970 03126 0001 +114 +066 321045 048 043 005 00
105830 2013N 15947W 6972 03132 0013 +112 +069 318041 043 039 002 00
105900 2011N 15948W 6967 03146 0018 +113 +072 317040 042 041 002 00
105930 2010N 15949W 6966 03153 0026 +112 +066 317044 044 041 002 00
110000 2009N 15951W 6967 03155 0028 +111 +062 318044 045 041 001 00
110030 2008N 15952W 6964 03161 0040 +104 +068 314045 046 039 001 00
$$

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Showing extent of 50 knot estimated 10 second winds at surface.

[Kingarabian]

988mb

72 knots
(~ 82.9 mph) SFMR

81 knots
(~ 93.2 mph) Flight Level 10 seconds.

Average them out and you get 75kts?

Couldve gotten stronger.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I like to use an unofficial method I have in my system. See this ob:

http://www.tropicaleastpacific.com/reco ... 93.1-66-72

And these together:

67.7 knots (~ 77.9 mph)
Category One Hurricane

68.5 knots (~ 78.8 mph)
Category One Hurricane

It uses a ratio.

You have the measured 30s flight level winds and 10s flight level winds. You have only the estimated 10s surface winds. So I use the ratio to get the 30s estimated surface winds. Look for two together and you get 1 minute. However, I will say that the NHC often simply goes by the SFMR, a 10 second estimate, I suppose assuming that there are higher winds they did not sample. (As long at the estimate does not look suspect to them. During Gonzalo they had a really high SFMR they didn't end up believing.)

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Of course that ratio is unofficial because for all we know, it could literally be blowing at, or near, 72 knots for that period of many in a row.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Comparing SFMR values to previous missions though, the last higher SFMR was 5:30:30Z on Saturday.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URPN12 KNHC 191109
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE CP022014
A. 19/10:52:20Z
B. 20 deg 29 min N
159 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 3021 m
D. 72 kt
E. 021 deg 7 nm
F. 124 deg 69 kt
G. 041 deg 18 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 10 C / 3046 m
J. 15 C / 3017 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0802C ANA OB 03
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 81 KT 224 / 10 NM 10:55:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 090 / 17 KT
;

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 191110
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 08 20141019
110100 2006N 15953W 6960 03171 0050 +098 +077 307044 046 037 002 00
110130 2005N 15955W 6966 03163 0060 +090 +085 308042 044 037 002 00
110200 2004N 15956W 6966 03167 0062 +092 +081 308039 041 036 002 01
110230 2003N 15957W 6964 03175 0060 +100 +072 311038 038 035 002 00
110300 2001N 15959W 6966 03176 0066 +096 +077 315037 038 035 001 03
110330 2000N 16000W 6963 03177 0071 +095 +080 316037 038 036 001 00
110400 1959N 16001W 6963 03178 0073 +096 +067 318037 038 035 002 00
110430 1958N 16003W 6967 03179 0080 +092 +067 317035 036 034 002 00
110500 1956N 16004W 6963 03187 0088 +087 +080 312031 033 032 002 00
110530 1955N 16005W 6965 03181 0091 +084 +080 313032 032 031 001 00
110600 1954N 16007W 6967 03181 0096 +081 +073 317033 033 027 002 00
110630 1953N 16008W 6965 03187 //// +080 //// 317030 033 027 002 01
110700 1951N 16009W 6967 03184 //// +080 //// 314029 030 028 001 01
110730 1950N 16011W 6970 03182 //// +080 //// 308030 031 029 000 01
110800 1949N 16012W 6963 03192 0098 +083 +080 308031 031 028 000 01
110830 1948N 16013W 6957 03200 0107 +080 //// 313032 033 028 000 01
110900 1946N 16015W 6972 03185 //// +079 //// 321034 035 025 005 01
110930 1945N 16016W 6959 03204 0105 +083 +081 321033 033 026 003 01
111000 1944N 16018W 6968 03194 //// +080 //// 326031 034 026 002 01
111030 1942N 16019W 6963 03203 0104 +087 +077 327029 031 025 001 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

Thanks for the wealth of information!

[Kingarabian]

With that center fix, looks like its not moving much and is to the right of the CPHC track after 2 hours...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

With that center fix, looks like its not moving much and is to the right of the CPHC track after 2 hours...

Also finding out that it is not just the radar reach, the eyewall is open to the SE.

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 191120
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 09 20141019
111100 1941N 16021W 6965 03202 0104 +090 +075 325028 028 026 001 00
111130 1939N 16022W 6973 03194 0099 +097 +061 320026 027 025 000 00
111200 1938N 16024W 6963 03208 0103 +097 +051 326025 025 023 000 00
111230 1938N 16024W 6963 03208 0109 +094 +050 321024 025 023 000 03
111300 1934N 16025W 6966 03206 0116 +090 +052 312023 024 /// /// 03
111330 1934N 16023W 6966 03203 0111 +090 +054 301021 022 022 000 00
111400 1933N 16021W 6967 03204 0106 +095 +053 295021 022 024 001 00
111430 1933N 16019W 6967 03201 0104 +095 +056 291022 023 026 000 00
111500 1933N 16017W 6962 03208 0102 +097 +054 288023 024 026 001 00
111530 1932N 16014W 6967 03201 0097 +100 +052 288024 025 026 001 00
111600 1932N 16012W 6966 03198 0096 +100 +051 290026 026 028 000 00
111630 1932N 16010W 6965 03202 0096 +100 +051 288027 027 028 000 00
111700 1931N 16007W 6967 03201 0096 +100 +052 284028 028 029 000 00
111730 1931N 16005W 6965 03202 0098 +098 +052 283028 029 028 001 00
111800 1931N 16003W 6965 03201 0101 +095 +054 280028 028 028 001 00
111830 1930N 16000W 6969 03193 0108 +090 +050 277028 029 030 000 00
111900 1930N 15958W 6962 03201 0108 +087 +056 277030 030 029 001 00
111930 1930N 15956W 6970 03193 0105 +088 +066 275031 031 030 001 00
112000 1929N 15953W 6962 03200 0105 +089 +070 273032 033 030 001 00
112030 1929N 15951W 6971 03191 0106 +087 +072 273034 034 030 002 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 191130
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 10 20141019
112100 1928N 15949W 6963 03202 0098 +093 +064 272034 034 032 000 00
112130 1928N 15946W 6961 03202 0103 +089 +065 270034 035 033 001 00
112200 1928N 15944W 6970 03190 0103 +090 +066 265035 035 032 003 00
112230 1927N 15942W 6963 03200 0105 +087 +070 262036 036 032 000 00
112300 1927N 15939W 6967 03193 0105 +089 +069 256036 036 031 000 00
112330 1926N 15937W 6965 03197 0114 +081 +070 252036 036 033 001 00
112400 1926N 15935W 6965 03198 0117 +078 +072 243038 040 035 002 00
112430 1926N 15932W 6966 03195 0115 +077 +074 244040 041 035 002 01
112500 1925N 15930W 6958 03208 0122 +076 +065 241038 039 035 002 00
112530 1925N 15928W 6970 03193 0122 +075 +063 240038 039 033 001 00
112600 1925N 15925W 6966 03199 0123 +075 +067 240039 040 033 000 00
112630 1924N 15923W 6962 03201 0121 +076 +063 241039 040 033 001 00
112700 1924N 15921W 6973 03194 0117 +085 +054 240037 038 034 001 00
112730 1923N 15919W 6970 03195 0110 +087 +068 230036 037 034 000 00
112800 1923N 15917W 6963 03205 0109 +088 +067 227040 040 033 001 00
112830 1923N 15915W 6965 03202 0107 +090 +056 223035 039 033 000 00
112900 1923N 15913W 6965 03200 0108 +090 +051 224036 036 031 001 00
112930 1922N 15910W 6967 03199 0112 +087 +053 224037 038 030 001 00
113000 1922N 15908W 6963 03203 0117 +083 +062 227039 039 031 001 00
113030 1923N 15906W 6964 03202 0113 +084 +066 226040 041 031 001 00
$$

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 191140
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 11 20141019
113100 1923N 15904W 6968 03196 0114 +084 +063 222041 042 036 005 00
113130 1924N 15902W 6969 03194 0113 +084 +062 226041 042 038 005 03
113200 1923N 15900W 6968 03190 0128 +092 +092 223044 046 040 017 00
113230 1923N 15858W 6966 03194 0133 +078 +078 208044 046 036 008 00
113300 1923N 15856W 6962 03202 0135 +079 +079 208046 047 033 011 03
113330 1922N 15854W 6962 03200 0149 +071 //// 208042 044 031 014 05
113400 1921N 15854W 6963 03200 0130 +077 +077 203039 040 033 007 00
113430 1919N 15853W 6962 03210 //// +072 //// 203038 040 033 006 05
113500 1919N 15852W 6970 03196 0116 +082 +076 201041 042 030 003 00
113530 1919N 15850W 6966 03203 0115 +085 +071 203042 042 029 003 00
113600 1918N 15848W 6966 03204 0117 +079 +071 205041 042 030 003 01
113630 1918N 15846W 6966 03203 //// +075 //// 204041 042 030 001 01
113700 1918N 15844W 6969 03200 //// +077 //// 206040 041 031 001 01
113730 1917N 15842W 6964 03209 0120 +083 +072 208038 040 030 001 00
113800 1916N 15840W 6968 03203 0119 +083 +077 210037 038 032 001 00
113830 1916N 15839W 6966 03207 0120 +086 +074 209037 037 033 002 00
113900 1915N 15837W 6963 03213 0118 +088 +067 212036 037 033 002 00
113930 1915N 15835W 6965 03211 0118 +087 +067 215038 039 034 003 00
114000 1914N 15833W 6968 03206 0126 +084 +067 206040 040 032 003 03
114030 1914N 15831W 6963 03210 0122 +085 +066 203040 041 030 001 00
$$
;