CPAC: ANA - Recon

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#181 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:32 am

This sonde released in the SE quadrant had a momentary gust of 71mph at the surface:

UZPN13 KNHC 191222
XXAA 69127 99203 71593 08809 99000 25610 18062 00502 ///// /////
92681 21612 19578 85418 20444 20077 70076 11019 23049 88999 77999
31313 09608 81209
61616 AF303 0802C ANA OB 09
62626 EYEWALL 135 MBL WND 18571 AEV 07775 DLM WND 20066 999696 WL
150 18067 082 REL 2031N15933W 120942 SPG 2038N15930W 121401 =
XXBB 69128 99203 71593 08809 00000 25610 11914 21214 22880 22048
33850 20444 44776 17056 55723 14634 66696 10417
21212 00000 18062 11994 18068 22989 18066 33984 18570 44906 19580
55850 20077 66696 23049
31313 09608 81209
61616 AF303 0802C ANA OB 09
62626 EYEWALL 135 MBL WND 18571 AEV 07775 DLM WND 20066 999696 WL
150 18067 082 REL 2031N15933W 120942 SPG 2038N15930W 121401 =
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#182 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:33 am

000
URPN15 KNHC 191230
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 16 20141019
122100 2047N 15949W 6968 03117 9984 +112 +098 051064 067 066 029 00
122130 2049N 15951W 6972 03115 9994 +111 +079 060068 073 060 012 00
122200 2050N 15952W 6975 03132 0006 +116 +062 051055 060 060 010 03
122230 2051N 15954W 6963 03145 0003 +125 +054 045047 054 059 000 00
122300 2052N 15955W 6978 03138 0020 +117 +059 047049 054 059 000 00
122330 2054N 15956W 6967 03154 0019 +121 +056 042047 049 054 001 03
122400 2055N 15958W 6965 03157 0020 +123 +050 044049 053 056 000 00
122430 2056N 15959W 6972 03158 0046 +107 +058 043055 057 055 001 00
122500 2057N 16000W 6966 03166 0056 +100 +073 051057 059 050 001 03
122530 2059N 16002W 6968 03161 //// +087 //// 059058 059 046 000 01
122600 2100N 16003W 6972 03160 0061 +096 +067 060055 058 046 001 00
122630 2101N 16004W 6969 03167 0066 +096 +061 055049 054 043 002 00
122700 2102N 16006W 6961 03177 0074 +091 +062 050044 045 046 002 00
122730 2104N 16007W 6967 03172 0085 +084 +067 057045 046 045 000 00
122800 2105N 16009W 6973 03167 0076 +092 +061 064046 047 043 001 00
122830 2106N 16010W 6967 03180 0081 +092 +060 061042 047 041 001 00
122900 2108N 16011W 6964 03179 0085 +090 +065 061040 042 040 001 00
122930 2109N 16013W 6974 03170 0085 +090 +070 059039 039 040 001 00
123000 2110N 16014W 6970 03181 0085 +092 +068 062036 038 040 001 00
123030 2110N 16014W 6970 03181 0085 +095 +063 061032 034 039 000 00
$$
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#183 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:34 am

What is the significance of gust at the surface? (BTW if you didnt see, latest CPHC update has 20.6 159.6)
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#184 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:40 am

The NW quadrant still has hurricane force wind, according to SFMR out 20 nautical miles. Maybe an extra 1 nm or so than that depending on the exact center point but close.

I was just pointing out that sonde that came across.

They did get the coordinates pretty right this time.
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#185 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:41 am

990mb with 22 knots of wind

UZPN13 KNHC 191229
XXAA 69127 99205 71596 08809 99990 26404 14022 00589 ///// /////
92600 23804 14523 85340 21422 13013 70010 14050 29004 88999 77999
31313 09608 81215
61616 AF303 0802C ANA OB 10
62626 CENTER MBL WND 15023 AEV 07775 DLM WND 14010 989698 WL150 1
4521 084 REL 2055N15957W 121513 SPG 2056N15958W 121938 =
XXBB 69128 99205 71596 08809 00990 26404 11850 21422 22817 19020
33800 20456 44771 19256 55698 13850
21212 00990 14022 11956 15523 22902 14523 33850 13013 44819 14011
55804 11510 66762 33510 77698 29004
31313 09608 81215
61616 AF303 0802C ANA OB 10
62626 CENTER MBL WND 15023 AEV 07775 DLM WND 14010 989698 WL150 1
4521 084 REL 2055N15957W 121513 SPG 2056N15958W 121938 =
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#186 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:43 am

000
URPN15 KNHC 191240
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 17 20141019
123100 2113N 16017W 6967 03185 0088 +094 +063 060033 034 039 001 00
123130 2114N 16018W 6970 03184 0091 +093 +064 062034 034 038 001 00
123200 2116N 16020W 6973 03180 0099 +087 +071 061035 037 038 001 00
123230 2117N 16021W 6959 03200 0103 +085 +071 064037 037 038 000 00
123300 2118N 16023W 6974 03184 0096 +093 +066 065037 038 038 001 00
123330 2120N 16024W 6969 03192 0095 +094 +065 063038 039 036 000 00
123400 2121N 16026W 6967 03193 0109 +083 +073 067038 039 036 000 00
123430 2123N 16028W 6969 03193 0109 +085 +071 070043 046 032 002 00
123500 2124N 16029W 6970 03194 0101 +095 +055 068045 046 033 001 00
123530 2126N 16031W 6967 03199 0100 +097 +054 069042 044 031 001 00
123600 2127N 16032W 6969 03197 0103 +095 +059 069040 040 029 002 00
123630 2129N 16034W 6969 03198 0105 +095 +055 068039 040 030 001 00
123700 2130N 16036W 6970 03196 0105 +095 +051 065038 038 030 000 00
123730 2132N 16037W 6969 03200 0111 +090 +061 068038 039 029 000 00
123800 2133N 16039W 6968 03203 0114 +090 +054 070039 039 029 001 00
123830 2134N 16040W 6960 03214 0109 +094 +038 068037 039 028 001 00
123900 2136N 16042W 6973 03197 0111 +094 +041 065034 034 025 001 00
123930 2138N 16044W 6967 03206 0114 +091 +039 063033 034 024 000 00
124000 2139N 16045W 6970 03198 0120 +089 +040 063033 034 021 000 00
124030 2141N 16047W 6968 03203 0125 +085 +042 066034 034 018 002 00
$$
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Recon

#187 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:43 am

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Re: CPAC: ANA - Recon

#188 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:45 am

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#189 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:45 am

URPN12 KNHC 191240
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE CP022014
A. 19/12:15:00Z
B. 20 deg 32 min N
159 deg 33 min W
C. 700 mb 3017 m
D. 59 kt
E. 136 deg 15 nm
F. 225 deg 57 kt
G. 136 deg 12 nm
H. 990 mb
I. 11 C / 3061 m
J. 15 C / 3047 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C22
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0802C ANA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 81 KT 203 / 13 NM 10:55:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 73 KT 313 / 23 NM 12:21:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 140 / 22 KT
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#190 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:49 am

Highest wind from a significant level for any mission to date for this storm:

At 948mb level: 96 knots (110 mph)

And in the NW quadrant.


UZPN13 KNHC 191245
XXAA 69127 99207 71597 08809 99994 24207 04075 00557 ///// /////
92626 22218 05068 85373 25460 05552 70060 15657 02540 88999 77999
31313 09608 81218
61616 AF303 0802C ANA OB 11
62626 EYEWALL 315 MBL WND 04581 AEV 07775 DLM WND 05051 992697 WL
150 04072 085 REL 2068N15972W 121829 SPG 2064N15976W 122239 =
XXBB 69128 99207 71597 08809 00994 24207 11928 21609 22920 24641
33912 25856 44850 25460 55747 21063 66720 19060 77697 15056
21212 00994 04075 11986 04069 22972 04076 33965 04586 44953 05590
55948 05596 66932 05570 77928 04572 88912 05556 99896 05059 11850
05552 22755 04528 33727 05530 44697 02043
31313 09608 81218
61616 AF303 0802C ANA OB 11
62626 EYEWALL 315 MBL WND 04581 AEV 07775 DLM WND 05051 992697 WL
150 04072 085 REL 2068N15972W 121829 SPG 2064N15976W 122239 =

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Re:

#191 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:53 am

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:The NW quadrant still has hurricane force wind, according to SFMR out 20 nautical miles. Maybe an extra 1 nm or so than that depending on the exact center point but close.

I was just pointing out that sonde that came across.

They did get the coordinates pretty right this time.


So basically a gust at the surface can validate the strength of the winds in a specific quad?
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#192 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:00 am

HDOB18 is late.
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Re: Re:

#193 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:00 am

Kingarabian wrote:So basically a gust at the surface can validate the strength of the winds in a specific quad?
I'm not sure how much time the wind in a sonde is averaged over. It might be as little as half a second. So I'm not sure what, if any, relationship you could use to try to estimate the 1 minute surface winds. I do know the NHC like to use the 10 second estimated surface winds from the SFMR instrument to justify the 1 minute sustained winds. I don't see the sonde data talked about as much. But that sonde data may have momentary gusts that are even higher than the advisory estimated gusts as I believe, but am not positive, that the sonde gusts are averaged over a shorter period than the period of official gusts.
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#194 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:03 am

Basically, the longer period you average winds over, the less the wind will be. (Like other places in the world that use 10 minute sustained winds.) But you just don't know if perhaps that sonde did measure something very close to the actual sustained wind. Sometimes gusts might be much higher than the sustained wind. Sometimes less so. I don't know how to tell when one is the case over the other.
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Re:

#195 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:06 am

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:Basically, the longer period you average winds over, the less the wind will be. (Like other places in the world that use 10 minute sustained winds.) But you just don't know if perhaps that sonde did measure something very close to the actual sustained wind. Sometimes gusts might be much higher than the sustained wind. Sometimes less so. I don't know how to tell when one is the case over the other.

Thanks for the explanation. I think I get what you mean. Im just trying to get down the basics. Learned a lot today.
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#196 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:13 am

000
URPN15 KNHC 191312
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 20 20141019
130100 2040N 16046W 6970 03191 0105 +086 +069 009026 028 033 000 00
130130 2038N 16046W 6969 03190 0103 +088 +067 011027 028 031 001 00
130200 2038N 16046W 6969 03190 0104 +086 +068 009026 027 033 001 00
130230 2033N 16045W 6969 03190 0106 +085 +064 006027 027 036 000 00
130300 2031N 16044W 6969 03188 0106 +084 +068 004029 030 031 002 00
130330 2028N 16044W 6969 03189 0102 +089 +063 001030 031 032 001 00
130400 2026N 16043W 6967 03191 0111 +082 +071 353025 029 032 000 00
130430 2026N 16043W 6967 03191 0108 +083 +071 350024 025 032 000 00
130500 2026N 16043W 6967 03191 0108 +083 +071 350024 025 032 000 00
130530 2026N 16043W 6967 03191 0108 +083 +071 350024 025 032 000 00
130600 2026N 16043W 6967 03191 0108 +083 +071 350024 025 032 000 00
130630 2026N 16043W 6967 03191 0108 +083 +071 350024 025 032 000 00
130700 2026N 16043W 6967 03191 0108 +083 +071 350024 025 032 000 00
130730 2026N 16043W 6967 03191 0108 +083 +071 350024 025 032 000 00
130800 2026N 16043W 6967 03191 0108 +083 +071 350024 025 032 000 00
130830 2026N 16043W 6967 03191 0108 +083 +071 350024 025 032 000 00
130900 2026N 16043W 6967 03191 0108 +083 +071 350024 025 032 000 00
130930 2026N 16043W 6967 03191 0108 +083 +071 350024 025 032 000 00
131000 2026N 16043W 6967 03191 0108 +083 +071 350024 025 032 000 00
131030 2026N 16043W 6967 03191 0108 +083 +071 350024 025 032 000 00
$$
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#197 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:16 am

Since the sonde is falling in the atmosphere, it doesn't spend much time at a level. Sometimes, and I have even see The Weather Channel do it, they mention something from a sonde. First, you can't simply say that is the 1 minute sustained wind. Second, there are higher winds higher up almost always. Just like that 110 mph higher up that sonde measured. But since that could be averaged possibly over about a half second and it is high up, it can be misleading to some people.

"Measurements of pressure, temperature, relative humidity, and wind are obtained at 0.5 s [2 Hz] resolution (for certain dropsonde models the wind measurements are only available at 1.0 s [1 Hz] resolution)."

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... ormat.html

That might mean the wind is measured over a half second, or perhaps not. But it is definitely a small amount of time.

"WIND GUST is the maximum 3-second wind speed (in knots) forecast to
occur within a 2-minute interval at a height of 10 meters. Wind gust
forecasts are valid at the top of the indicated hour."

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ndfd/definitions.htm

So in the advisories you probably see the 3 second forecast wind gusts. Sonde are possibly averaged over a smaller time, which means they are likely then to be a little higher than if the data was available over 3 seconds. (but the sonde if falling, so it can't stay in the same place for 3 seconds)
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#198 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:17 am

When it works, a nice place to get missed obs:
http://nbsp.opennoaaport.net:8015/rst/txt/knhc/

The KWBC equivalent for NOAA takes a very long time to load as the page is very large.
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#199 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:17 am

000
URPN15 KNHC 191315
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 19 20141019
125100 2124N 16056W 6970 03202 0105 +096 +051 045025 025 025 000 00
125130 2122N 16055W 6967 03204 0105 +098 +049 044026 027 026 002 00
125200 2122N 16055W 6967 03204 0105 +096 +046 045027 029 026 001 00
125230 2117N 16054W 6970 03195 0113 +091 +037 044030 030 028 000 00
125300 2115N 16054W 6967 03202 0109 +090 +036 042033 034 027 001 00
125330 2113N 16053W 6969 03197 0108 +092 +038 042033 034 031 002 00
125400 2111N 16053W 6967 03197 0105 +093 +043 040032 033 030 003 00
125430 2109N 16052W 6970 03196 0109 +088 +048 039032 032 031 001 00
125500 2107N 16052W 6969 03195 0107 +090 +049 038031 033 032 002 00
125530 2104N 16051W 6968 03198 0112 +088 +071 041030 032 032 003 00
125600 2102N 16051W 6969 03192 0113 +085 +063 033030 031 032 001 00
125630 2100N 16050W 6970 03192 0109 +086 +055 029031 031 034 002 00
125700 2100N 16050W 6970 03192 0108 +086 +051 028031 031 034 002 00
125730 2055N 16049W 6970 03192 0107 +087 +060 028028 031 038 002 00
125800 2053N 16049W 6967 03194 0105 +088 +069 028026 028 035 003 00
125830 2051N 16048W 6965 03202 0117 +090 +089 031026 027 037 006 00
125900 2049N 16048W 6966 03198 0108 +087 +077 030027 028 038 003 00
125930 2046N 16048W 6966 03195 0105 +085 +074 022028 030 038 008 00
130000 2044N 16047W 6971 03187 0104 +085 +068 010027 028 037 007 00
130030 2042N 16047W 6965 03193 0107 +085 +068 007025 026 034 002 00
$$
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#200 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:18 am

Through HDOB 20:

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