CPAC: ANA - Recon

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Re: CPAC: ANA - Recon

#161 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:43 am

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#162 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:48 am

Statewide radar image composite:

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#163 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:50 am

Chris, do you think the wind Radaii for Ana is about right in all quads?
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#164 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:52 am

000
URPN15 KNHC 191150
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 12 20141019
114100 1914N 15829W 6966 03209 0125 +083 +071 200039 039 032 001 00
114130 1914N 15827W 6963 03212 0129 +080 +069 198039 039 031 001 00
114200 1913N 15825W 6966 03212 0129 +081 +063 197039 039 030 000 00
114230 1913N 15823W 6966 03214 0132 +081 +070 199038 039 030 001 00
114300 1913N 15821W 6963 03216 0133 +080 +062 198039 039 030 000 00
114330 1913N 15819W 6966 03212 0132 +080 +064 196038 039 028 001 00
114400 1913N 15818W 6965 03213 0129 +085 +040 191038 038 029 000 00
114430 1913N 15816W 6967 03212 0132 +089 -051 190039 039 029 001 00
114500 1912N 15814W 6965 03211 0126 +086 +039 193039 041 031 006 05
114530 1913N 15812W 6973 03211 //// +060 //// 184042 042 /// /// 05
114600 1915N 15812W 6956 03228 0142 +070 //// 182035 041 /// /// 05
114630 1916N 15814W 6970 03211 0130 +086 +041 185036 036 028 000 03
114700 1917N 15815W 6964 03215 0131 +089 -016 183036 036 031 000 00
114730 1918N 15817W 6967 03212 0132 +084 +012 183036 036 032 001 00
114800 1920N 15818W 6966 03211 0132 +081 +063 186036 037 032 001 00
114830 1921N 15820W 6967 03208 0132 +080 +066 189037 037 033 000 00
114900 1922N 15821W 6966 03211 0130 +080 +064 189036 037 033 001 00
114930 1924N 15823W 6965 03209 0129 +080 +065 188037 037 034 001 00
115000 1925N 15824W 6965 03212 0125 +080 +075 189037 038 035 002 00
115030 1927N 15826W 6965 03208 0125 +080 +074 191039 039 035 001 00
$$
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Recon

#165 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:55 am

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Re:

#166 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:01 am

Kingarabian wrote:Chris, do you think the wind Radaii for Ana is about right in all quads?

It's a little hard to tell since the sonde missed the center just a little bit. Hurricane force winds do seem to extend out about 20 nautical miles to the NE based solely on the SFMR readings. Using just a little further past from the sonde to a little past the SFMR hurricane force wind gust. Let me check 50 knot.
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#167 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:04 am

000
URPN15 KNHC 191200
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 13 20141019
115100 1928N 15827W 6967 03204 0124 +077 //// 190037 039 036 000 01
115130 1929N 15828W 6962 03208 //// +073 //// 191035 038 036 003 01
115200 1931N 15830W 6970 03198 0123 +080 +078 197039 040 035 002 01
115230 1932N 15831W 6931 03241 0115 +095 //// 193039 042 036 009 01
115300 1934N 15833W 6972 03193 //// +080 //// 195041 042 036 008 01
115330 1935N 15834W 6964 03205 //// +079 //// 194041 042 033 001 01
115400 1936N 15836W 6967 03201 //// +080 //// 194042 043 034 002 01
115430 1938N 15837W 6965 03199 0116 +078 +077 191043 044 034 002 01
115500 1939N 15839W 6966 03196 0115 +078 +075 191043 044 035 002 01
115530 1941N 15840W 6968 03193 0112 +079 +073 188045 046 034 004 00
115600 1942N 15842W 6964 03195 0114 +078 +071 185045 046 036 005 00
115630 1943N 15843W 6962 03196 0114 +076 +076 187047 047 036 006 00
115700 1945N 15845W 6971 03190 0117 +083 +083 191045 047 041 009 00
115730 1946N 15846W 6980 03174 0141 +083 +083 193043 046 040 008 00
115800 1948N 15847W 6960 03197 0144 +077 +077 198043 045 040 008 00
115830 1949N 15849W 6968 03189 0143 +078 +078 208046 052 040 015 00
115900 1950N 15850W 6963 03188 0130 +077 +077 199048 050 043 015 00
115930 1952N 15852W 6970 03174 0124 +083 +083 203049 053 049 017 00
120000 1953N 15853W 6968 03186 0122 +089 +089 216046 048 049 019 00
120030 1954N 15854W 6963 03190 0108 +078 //// 210046 049 045 006 01
$$
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#168 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:08 am

50 knot to the NE looks excellent at 45 nautical miles. Pretty much exactly 45 nautical miles. Again, based on SFMR values which are technically 10 second surface estimates, but that is what the NHC like to go by a lot. Not sure about the CPHC. Tropical storm force wind field would be more difficult. They didn't have the SFMR on immediately and there is a lot of rain. I'm not sure how they judge that. They said 90 nautical miles to the NE is the extent of 34 knot winds. The tip of Ouahu is about 95 to 100 nautical miles to the center.

When they turned the SFMR on is had winds above 34 knots immediately and they were 80 nautical miles out from the center at that point.
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Recon

#169 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:10 am

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Re:

#170 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:10 am

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:50 knot to the NE looks excellent at 45 nautical miles. Pretty much exactly 45 nautical miles. Again, based on SFMR values which are technically 10 second surface estimates, but that is what the NHC like to go by a lot. Not sure about the CPHC. Tropical storm force wind field would be more difficult. They didn't have the SFMR on immediately and there is a lot of rain. I'm not sure how they judge that. They said 90 nautical miles to the NE is the extent of 34 knot winds. The tip of Ouahu is about 95 to 100 nautical miles to the center.

When they turned the SFMR on is had winds above 34 knots immediately and they were 80 nautical miles out from the center at that point.

Aha I see. Then a watch is perfectly fine I guess.
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#171 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:12 am

000
URPN15 KNHC 191210
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 14 20141019
120100 1956N 15856W 6967 03184 //// +076 //// 206045 046 041 003 01
120130 1957N 15857W 6962 03186 //// +078 //// 205044 046 036 004 01
120200 1958N 15859W 6969 03177 0090 +084 //// 207042 043 037 002 01
120230 2000N 15900W 6963 03180 0095 +083 //// 204042 044 040 005 01
120300 2001N 15901W 6964 03175 0093 +081 //// 198041 042 040 004 01
120330 2002N 15903W 6968 03169 0099 +085 //// 204044 047 044 012 01
120400 2004N 15904W 6957 03182 0105 +092 +092 212046 051 046 013 00
120430 2005N 15906W 6968 03168 0092 +095 +095 217040 041 044 012 00
120500 2006N 15907W 6963 03169 0076 +092 //// 213039 040 043 007 01
120530 2008N 15908W 6969 03161 0071 +088 //// 211043 045 043 003 01
120600 2009N 15910W 6963 03163 0055 +093 +088 213047 047 044 004 00
120630 2010N 15911W 6965 03159 0047 +097 +088 216046 047 046 004 00
120700 2011N 15913W 6964 03157 0048 +093 +089 213049 050 047 005 00
120730 2013N 15914W 6963 03153 0055 +090 //// 210052 053 047 005 01
120800 2014N 15915W 6969 03145 0059 +091 +091 213054 054 047 007 00
120830 2015N 15917W 6972 03133 0058 +088 +088 215051 053 051 007 00
120900 2017N 15918W 6963 03136 0034 +092 +091 214051 052 054 007 00
120930 2018N 15919W 6967 03130 0009 +102 +091 224047 050 057 004 00
121000 2019N 15921W 6962 03124 9998 +101 +088 220047 054 059 002 00
121030 2021N 15922W 6976 03098 9993 +099 +088 216048 051 059 002 00
$$
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#172 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:16 am

It does depend on how long it continues this movement and if the hurricane force wind field expands. As the wind field is now, if it kept the actual heading it is on, not based on advisories, but how it is literally moving, Niihau would look to get some possible sustained hurricane force winds. (The center could be around 10 nautical miles offshore to the west) If it does turn any at all, then probably not. But that assumes the wind field does not expand at all. The entire CDO does appear to be growing a little though.

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Re: CPAC: ANA - Recon

#173 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:19 am

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#174 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:21 am

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:It does depend on how long it continues this movement and if the hurricane force wind field expands. As the wind field is now, if it kept the actual heading it is on, not based on advisories, but how it is literally moving, Niihau would look to get some possible sustained hurricane force winds. (The center could be around 10 nautical miles offshore to the west) If it does turn any at all, then probably not. But that assumes the wind field does not expand at all. The entire CDO does appear to be growing a little though.

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Yeah I agree. Look at that.

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#175 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:21 am

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#176 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:22 am

000
URPN15 KNHC 191220
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 15 20141019
121100 2022N 15923W 6977 03093 9990 +094 +091 228050 052 058 001 00
121130 2023N 15925W 6957 03104 //// +094 //// 225047 057 057 002 01
121200 2024N 15926W 6961 03090 9947 +108 +096 223037 042 055 001 00
121230 2025N 15927W 6969 03075 9928 +119 +098 223030 032 055 001 00
121300 2027N 15929W 6963 03078 9914 +125 +099 233027 028 055 000 00
121330 2028N 15930W 6973 03055 9908 +123 +105 235020 026 053 002 00
121400 2029N 15931W 6965 03064 9901 +129 +097 250016 019 043 002 03
121430 2031N 15932W 6978 03043 9896 +132 +095 235008 014 035 001 00
121500 2032N 15933W 6987 03035 9892 +136 +091 247005 008 026 002 00
121530 2033N 15935W 6970 03053 9886 +139 +087 331005 006 025 001 00
121600 2035N 15936W 6967 03055 9876 +149 +078 015010 012 024 002 00
121630 2036N 15938W 6969 03060 9879 +150 +078 044016 018 034 000 00
121700 2037N 15939W 6967 03065 9877 +156 +076 043020 021 039 001 00
121730 2038N 15940W 6966 03073 9875 +162 +073 036019 021 045 001 03
121800 2040N 15942W 6968 03078 9872 +173 +063 048019 021 072 002 00
121830 2041N 15943W 6968 03079 9894 +150 +095 034035 038 076 005 00
121900 2042N 15944W 6978 03063 9918 +130 +102 023030 038 078 005 00
121930 2043N 15945W 6957 03103 9941 +120 +104 043036 043 074 009 00
122000 2045N 15947W 6989 03068 9979 +110 +110 044054 057 075 010 00
122030 2046N 15948W 6970 03105 9991 +112 +112 048056 057 072 022 00
$$
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#177 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:25 am

987.2 mb
(~ 29.16 inHg)



78 knots
(~ 89.8 mph) Highest SFMR level @ 10 seconds

71.1 knots (~ 81.8 mph)
Category One Hurricane Highest Surface

57 knots
(~ 65.6 mph) Highest Flight level @ 10 second average
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Recon

#178 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:26 am

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Re: CPAC: ANA - Recon

#179 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:28 am

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Re: CPAC: ANA - Recon

#180 Postby AbcdeerHI » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:31 am

Not sure how accurate this is but it does show 40-50 knot winds just above the surface now.

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