ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:32 am

For Eastern Atlantic area.

AL, 92, 2014101812, , BEST, 0, 331N, 199W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 300, 75, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2014101818, , BEST, 0, 330N, 200W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 300, 75, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2014101900, , BEST, 0, 329N, 201W, 30, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 300, 75, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2014101906, , BEST, 0, 327N, 201W, 35, 1003, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 40, 80, 1010, 300, 75, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2014101912, , BEST, 0, 326N, 201W, 40, 1000, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 60, 120, 1010, 300, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M
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#2 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:03 pm

:uarrow: Your reffering to the NHC highlighted area in NE Atlantic Southeast of the Azores correct?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#3 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:06 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:32 pm

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a couple of hundred miles west of the Canary Islands. This
system is producing gale-force winds, and the low could gradually
acquire subtropical characteristics during the next several days
while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over relatively
warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
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#5 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:00 pm

That looks like a (sub)tropical cyclone now. The NHC is VERY conservative when it comes to distant storms in the eastern Atlantic though.
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Re:

#6 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:22 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That looks like a (sub)tropical cyclone now. The NHC is VERY conservative when it comes to distant storms in the eastern Atlantic though.


I'd wait another 24 hours personally, it still looks a bit too frontal at the moment.
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Re:

#7 Postby AJC3 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:30 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That looks like a (sub)tropical cyclone now. The NHC is VERY conservative when it comes to distant storms in the eastern Atlantic though.


It's definitely a frontal XTC. Surface METARs in that area clearly show this.
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#8 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:54 pm

Very unusual spot as well for an invest to show up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:40 pm

8 PM TWO:

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds, and the low could gradually acquire
subtropical characteristics during the next several days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:44 pm

00z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2014102000, , BEST, 0, 332N, 200W, 40, 998, LO
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#11 Postby wyq614 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:11 pm

BBC says 5 have been killed in Canary Island flooding...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:52 am

8 AM TWO:

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
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Re:

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:32 pm

wyq614 wrote:BBC says 5 have been killed in Canary Island flooding...


Here is the sad story of the flooding there with video.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29682176

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gYA8_xBvlM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:34 pm

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:47 pm

I know that all the attention is for 93L but let's not forget 92L that at least is trying to get a name in a subtropical way.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:57 pm

18z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2014102018, , BEST, 0, 335N, 231W, 45, 993, LO
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#17 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:26 pm

I'll throw my two cents in and say, while it appears separated from the front, it's probably about as strong as it's going to get (and probably closest to tropical as well that it'll ever see) as it's beginning to move over waters in the low 70s.
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#18 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:37 pm

Looks exactly the same as Andrea did in 07 off the east coast
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:36 pm

Looking less likely to get a name.

8 PM TWO:

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing winds to gale-force and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while
it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become
less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by late
Wednesday and development after that time is becoming less likely.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:48 pm

2 PM TWO:

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles south of the Azores. This system is
producing winds of gale-force and could acquire some subtropical
characteristics during the next day or so while it moves west-
southwestward at about 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to
become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation
by Thursday and development after that time is not likely.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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