hurricanes1234 wrote:How rare this could end up being if those models are right: a November hurricane beginning with the letter "V". None other than 2014!
So close in 1990
EPAC: VANCE - Remnants
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Hurricanehink
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2023
- Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
- Location: New Jersey
Re:
So close in 1990
0 likes
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15954
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
Pretty major differences between the GFS and Euro. Euro stalls this offshore, while the GFS slams this ashore as a monster.
Look at the setup. the Euro re-builds the high quickly while the GFS does not.
ECMWF
GFS. 12z JMA is onboard with the GFS.
CMC as usual showing something very diffrent.
Look at the setup. the Euro re-builds the high quickly while the GFS does not.
ECMWF
GFS. 12z JMA is onboard with the GFS.
CMC as usual showing something very diffrent.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139127
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
12z Best Track:
EP, 93, 2014102712, , BEST, 0, 100N, 963W, 25, 1008, LO
EP, 93, 2014102712, , BEST, 0, 100N, 963W, 25, 1008, LO
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139127
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
I never pretend to get critical of NHC but in this instance they should raise the % as this is becoming better organized more faster than expected.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139127
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
It was a given that NHC had to increase the %.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized near
an area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form later tonight or on Tuesday while
the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Forecaster Stewart
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized near
an area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form later tonight or on Tuesday while
the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Forecaster Stewart
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15954
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932014 10/27/14 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 43 48 54 59 64 69 78 84
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 43 48 54 59 64 69 78 84
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 38 40 43 46 51 57 66 75
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 10 3 5 5 8 8 6 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -2 -2 -8 -6 -6 -3 1 -3
SHEAR DIR 140 122 118 121 120 123 164 147 168 138 123 110 70
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 149 148 148 150 153 154 154 155 154 153
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 8 7 10 9 9 8
700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 61 58 56 53 53 53 52 50 51 55
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 13 15 17 20 22
850 MB ENV VOR 2 6 6 4 6 7 -2 2 3 17 36 42 41
200 MB DIV 28 27 37 43 58 0 -5 4 34 52 54 59 55
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 633 608 587 567 547 518 505 516 530 590 666 749 839
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.3 12.0 11.6 11.2
LONG(DEG W) 96.3 96.7 97.2 97.6 98.0 98.8 99.8 101.0 102.0 102.9 103.9 105.0 106.2
STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 5 6 6 5 4 6 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 10 9 10 17 33 42 37 30 23 20
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 17. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 18. 23. 29. 34. 39. 44. 53. 59.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 10/27/14 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 10/27/14 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932014 10/27/14 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 43 48 54 59 64 69 78 84
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 43 48 54 59 64 69 78 84
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 38 40 43 46 51 57 66 75
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 10 3 5 5 8 8 6 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -2 -2 -8 -6 -6 -3 1 -3
SHEAR DIR 140 122 118 121 120 123 164 147 168 138 123 110 70
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 149 148 148 150 153 154 154 155 154 153
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 8 7 10 9 9 8
700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 61 58 56 53 53 53 52 50 51 55
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 13 15 17 20 22
850 MB ENV VOR 2 6 6 4 6 7 -2 2 3 17 36 42 41
200 MB DIV 28 27 37 43 58 0 -5 4 34 52 54 59 55
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 633 608 587 567 547 518 505 516 530 590 666 749 839
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.3 12.0 11.6 11.2
LONG(DEG W) 96.3 96.7 97.2 97.6 98.0 98.8 99.8 101.0 102.0 102.9 103.9 105.0 106.2
STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 5 6 6 5 4 6 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 10 9 10 17 33 42 37 30 23 20
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 17. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 18. 23. 29. 34. 39. 44. 53. 59.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 10/27/14 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 10/27/14 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139127
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON OCT 27 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle part of this
week while the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON OCT 27 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle part of this
week while the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139127
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
00z Best Track:
EP, 93, 2014102800, , BEST, 0, 97N, 962W, 25, 1007, LO
EP, 93, 2014102800, , BEST, 0, 97N, 962W, 25, 1007, LO
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15954
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932014 10/28/14 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 45 50 55 62 73 81 85
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 45 50 55 62 73 81 85
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 38 40 41 45 50 57
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 3 1 4 2 1 2 2 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 -2 -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 101 113 96 103 106 129 178 184 209 110 65 173 182
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 149 149 147 148 147 148 148 150 154
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.7 -52.8 -53.4 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 8
700-500 MB RH 65 63 61 58 60 57 58 56 56 59 62 64 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 10 11 13 17 20 25 26
850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 0 0 -6 -8 -6 5 11 14 22 17 12
200 MB DIV 26 39 53 47 21 -13 -19 17 14 52 75 87 116
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 666 661 657 630 604 576 567 570 606 654 729 758 750
LAT (DEG N) 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 9
Dry air aside, conditions look better than Marie. HWRF/GFDL are conservative with this though and we have no CCKW support.
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932014 10/28/14 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 45 50 55 62 73 81 85
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 45 50 55 62 73 81 85
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 38 40 41 45 50 57
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 3 1 4 2 1 2 2 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 -2 -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 101 113 96 103 106 129 178 184 209 110 65 173 182
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 149 149 147 148 147 148 148 150 154
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.7 -52.8 -53.4 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 8
700-500 MB RH 65 63 61 58 60 57 58 56 56 59 62 64 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 10 11 13 17 20 25 26
850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 0 0 -6 -8 -6 5 11 14 22 17 12
200 MB DIV 26 39 53 47 21 -13 -19 17 14 52 75 87 116
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 666 661 657 630 604 576 567 570 606 654 729 758 750
LAT (DEG N) 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 9
Dry air aside, conditions look better than Marie. HWRF/GFDL are conservative with this though and we have no CCKW support.
0 likes
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15954
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139127
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is on the verge of becoming a tropical depression.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form later today while the
low moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
Forecaster Blake
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is on the verge of becoming a tropical depression.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form later today while the
low moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
Forecaster Blake
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15954
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15954
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932014 10/28/14 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 44 50 59 65 75 85 92 96
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 44 50 59 65 75 85 92 96
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 42 44 47 50 55 61 68 76
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 9 8 1 4 3 2 5 5 10 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -4 -5 -4 -6 -4 -3 -3 -4 -5 -5
SHEAR DIR 112 101 91 94 122 208 141 124 190 59 42 37 15
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 149 149 148 148 149 149 150 150 153 155
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.3 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 8 7 7
700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 61 60 58 58 55 57 59 63 65 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 13 15 20 24 27 29
850 MB ENV VOR -3 -5 -3 -10 -15 -12 -5 2 5 26 19 22 16
200 MB DIV 36 45 39 26 -2 -26 14 22 47 56 84 103 75
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -3
LAND (KM) 645 630 617 608 600 584 592 628 684 749 808 840 845
LAT (DEG N) 9.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 10 8 7 12 17 18 20 22 19 27
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 20. 29. 35. 45. 55. 62. 66.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 10/28/14 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 10/28/14 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932014 10/28/14 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 44 50 59 65 75 85 92 96
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 44 50 59 65 75 85 92 96
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 42 44 47 50 55 61 68 76
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 9 8 1 4 3 2 5 5 10 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -4 -5 -4 -6 -4 -3 -3 -4 -5 -5
SHEAR DIR 112 101 91 94 122 208 141 124 190 59 42 37 15
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 149 149 148 148 149 149 150 150 153 155
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.3 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 8 7 7
700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 61 60 58 58 55 57 59 63 65 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 13 15 20 24 27 29
850 MB ENV VOR -3 -5 -3 -10 -15 -12 -5 2 5 26 19 22 16
200 MB DIV 36 45 39 26 -2 -26 14 22 47 56 84 103 75
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -3
LAND (KM) 645 630 617 608 600 584 592 628 684 749 808 840 845
LAT (DEG N) 9.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 10 8 7 12 17 18 20 22 19 27
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 20. 29. 35. 45. 55. 62. 66.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 10/28/14 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 10/28/14 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15954
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932014 10/28/14 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 39 44 49 58 65 75 79 80
V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 39 44 49 58 65 75 79 80
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 35 36 37 37 36 36 38 41 45 50
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 6 4 3 4 5 4 5 10 7 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 -3 -6 -4 -6 -2 0 0 -3 1
SHEAR DIR 121 123 123 155 202 219 206 196 179 109 34 33 190
SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 148 148 149 150 150 150 152 153 155 156
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 8 7 9 8 8 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 62 58 60 58 57 57 55 56 58 62 64 68 70
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 11 13 15 20 23 27 28 29
850 MB ENV VOR -4 -7 -11 -14 -11 -5 1 8 18 26 23 19 5
200 MB DIV 30 15 4 -7 -1 -4 41 30 70 93 104 62 76
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 591 575 561 547 532 536 563 604 667 751 826 820 743
LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 3 5 8 9 8 9
HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 9 9 12 22 23 20 20 20 26 59
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932014 10/28/14 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 39 44 49 58 65 75 79 80
V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 39 44 49 58 65 75 79 80
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 35 36 37 37 36 36 38 41 45 50
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 6 4 3 4 5 4 5 10 7 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 -3 -6 -4 -6 -2 0 0 -3 1
SHEAR DIR 121 123 123 155 202 219 206 196 179 109 34 33 190
SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 148 148 149 150 150 150 152 153 155 156
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 8 7 9 8 8 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 62 58 60 58 57 57 55 56 58 62 64 68 70
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 11 13 15 20 23 27 28 29
850 MB ENV VOR -4 -7 -11 -14 -11 -5 1 8 18 26 23 19 5
200 MB DIV 30 15 4 -7 -1 -4 41 30 70 93 104 62 76
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 591 575 561 547 532 536 563 604 667 751 826 820 743
LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 3 5 8 9 8 9
HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 9 9 12 22 23 20 20 20 26 59
0 likes
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
looks like euro has a strong hurricane develop from this area...
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139127
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec remains fairly well organized.
However, recent satellite data indicate the low does not have a
well-defined center and is not a tropical cyclone yet. Environmental
conditions still appear conducive for a tropical depression to form
later today or tonight while the low moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
Forecaster Blake
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec remains fairly well organized.
However, recent satellite data indicate the low does not have a
well-defined center and is not a tropical cyclone yet. Environmental
conditions still appear conducive for a tropical depression to form
later today or tonight while the low moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
Forecaster Blake
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139127
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
Yellow Evan,you mentioned that conditions will be better than when Marie was out there. You imply this will be a cat 3 and higher like Marie?
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15954
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
cycloneye wrote:Yellow Evan,you mentioned that conditions will be better than when Marie was out there. You imply this will be a cat 3 and higher like Marie?
It could. But we don't have a CCKW that we've had for several other storms this season. That's why dry air is an issue.
0 likes
-
TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139127
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
Tx13,this will have a long life not go to cooler waters rapidly as many EPAC systems do?
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 54 guests