NIO : INVEST 91B

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NIO : INVEST 91B

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Nov 04, 2014 12:32 pm

91B INVEST 141104 1200 13.3N 88.9E IO 25 1004

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Re: NIO: INVEST 91B

#2 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Nov 05, 2014 7:03 am

91B INVEST 141105 0600 12.8N 87.8E IO 25 1004

Image

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N
87.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY BETTER DEVELOPED. A
05328Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE DEFINED. A 050330Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED WEAK CORE WINDS (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ABOUT THE LLCC WHILE A LARGE
SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WERE DISPLACED ALMOST 100 NM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, AS
GOOD OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS MAINTAINING THIS SYSTEM AS A MONSOON
DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT DUE TO THE RECENT
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
Last edited by jaguarjace on Fri Nov 07, 2014 5:55 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: NIO: INVEST 91B

#3 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Nov 05, 2014 7:12 am

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Time of issue: 1700 hours IST
Dated: 05.11.2014
Bulletin No.: BOB04/2014/01

Sub: Depression over central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal

Latest satellite imagery & observations indicate that a depression has formed over
central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 1430 hours IST of today,
the 5th November, 2014 near latitude 13.0°N and longitude 87.5°E, about 580 km west-
northwest of Port Blair, 690 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 810 km south-southeast
of Paradip. It would move northwestwards initially and intensify into a deep depression
during next 24 hrs.

The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 5th November, 2014.
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/indian.pdf
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Re: NIO: INVEST 91B

#4 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Nov 05, 2014 4:03 pm

TCFA Issued by JTWC
Image

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4N
87.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 87.4E, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING AND DEEPENING AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER A BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION TYPE OF CIRCULATION.
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES WEAK CORE WINDS (10 TO 15
KNOTS) SURROUNDED BY A LARGE SWATH OF STRONGER WINDS (20-30 KNOTS)
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN FLANKS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SYSTEM AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN EXCELLENT
VENTILATION MECHANISM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 28-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND A STEADY INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE ALSO
FUELING THE DEEPENING CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. IN VIEW OF THE RAPIDLY IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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Re: NIO: BOB 04 - Depression (JTWC: 05B)

#5 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Nov 05, 2014 8:35 pm

05B FIVE 141106 0000 13.8N 87.4E IO 35 996

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Re: NIO: BOB 04 - Depression (JTWC: 05B)

#6 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Nov 05, 2014 10:04 pm

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Re: NIO: BOB 04 - Deep Depression (JTWC: 05B)

#7 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Nov 06, 2014 4:47 am

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Time of issue: 1330 hours IST
Dated: 06.11.2014
Bulletin No.: BOB04/2014/06

Sub: Deep Depression over central Bay of Bengal

The depression over central Bay of Bengal moved slowly northwestwards during past
six hours and lay centered at 1130 hours IST of 6th November, 2014 over central Bay of
Bengal near latitude 14.1°N and longitude 86.9°E, about 690 km west-northwest of Port Blair,
560 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 690 km south-southeast of Paradip. It would move
northwestwards and intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hrs. It would then
move west-northwestwards towards Andhra Pradesh coast. It would weaken gradually into a
Depression while reaching near the coast on 8th Nov. 2014, night.

The next bulletin will be issued at 1730 hrs IST of 6th November, 2014.
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/indian.pdf
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Re: NIO : INVEST 91B

#8 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 06, 2014 9:19 am

Image

WTIO31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 88.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 88.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.2N 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.0N 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 13.0N 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.9N 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 12.8N 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 12.0N 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 87.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTHEAST
OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION, THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF WHICH IS LOCATED
ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTROID. THE POSITION IS BASED ON A
061045Z AND 061200Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT FURTHER SHOW THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
BASED ON THE STEADY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS REGION. TC 05B HAS BEEN
QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN A COL REGION
BETWEEN TWO SUB TROPICAL RIDGES (STR). HOWEVER, EXPECT 05B TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THAT CURRENTLY LIES TO WEST
OF THE SYSTEM, AS THE STR TRACKS OVER THE SUBCONTINENT AND INTO THE
NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, ALLOWING TC 05B TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY THROUGH
TAU 48. JUST BEYOND TAU 72, TC 05B WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF
CHENNAI AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DUE TO LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: NIO: BOB 04 - Deep Depression (JTWC: 05B)

#9 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:40 am

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Time of issue: 2030 hours IST
Dated: 06.11.2014
Bulletin No.: BOB04/2014/07

Sub: Deep Depression over central Bay of Bengal

The deep depression over central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary during
past six hours and lay centered at 1730 hours IST of 6th November, 2014 over central Bay of
Bengal near latitude 14.1°N and longitude 86.9°E, about 690 km west-northwest of Port Blair,
560 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 690 km south-southeast of Paradip. It would move
northwestwards and may intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hrs. It would
then move west-northwestwards towards Andhra Pradesh coast. It would weaken gradually
into a Depression while reaching near the coast on 9th Nov. 2014, morning.

The next bulletin will be issued at 0230 hrs IST of 7th November, 2014.
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/indian.pdf
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Re: NIO: BOB 04 - Depression (JTWC: 05B)

#10 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Nov 07, 2014 5:53 am

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Time of issue: 1330 hours IST
Dated: 07.11.2014
Bulletin No.: BOB04/2014/11

Sub: Deep Depression weakened into a Depression over central Bay of Bengal

The deep depression over central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary,
weakened into a Depression and lay centered at 1130 hours IST of 7th November, 2014
over central Bay of Bengal near latitude 14.1°N and longitude 86.9°E, about 750 km east-
southeast of Ongole, 560 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 730 km east-northeast of
Chennai. It would move westwards towards Andhra Pradesh coast and weaken into a well
marked low pressure area during next 48 hours.
Light to moderate rainfall would occur at a few places on 8th and at many places on 9th
November, 2014 over Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north coastal Tamil Nadu.
Squally wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph would prevail along and
off Andhra Pradesh and north Tamilnadu coast on 8th and 9th Nov. 2014. Sea condition
would be rough along and off Andhra Pradesh and north Tamilnadu coast on 8th and 9th
Nov. 2014.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off Andhra Pradesh, and
North Tamilnadu coast on 8th and 9th Nov. 2014. Fishermen out at sea along and off these
coasts are advised to return to the coast.

The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of 7th November, 2014.
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/indian.pdf

Image
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#11 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 07, 2014 11:56 am

JT is still calling for intensification, though I really do not understand why.

This thing is clearly below cyclone intensity and is likely to dissipate within 12 to 24 hours
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