SPAC: INVEST 96P

[jaguarjace]

96P INVEST 141121 0000 9.3S 175.1W SHEM 15 1010


96P Floater

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2S
177.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 174.4W, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM NORTH
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS UNORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ELOGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 230354Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS VERY FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE EASTERN SIDE
BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ALSO, A CIMMS 230300Z 850MB
RELATIVE VORTICITY PRODUCT SHOWS AN ELONGATED VORTICITY SIGNATURE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED NORTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (05
TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH A RANGE OF 26 TO 28
DEGRESS CELCIUS IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.