SIO: INVEST 99S

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98S INVEST 141128 0600 5.3S 90.0E SHEM 15 1010


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Friday 28 November 2014
for the period until midnight WST Monday 1 December 2014.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the Western Region at present. A weak low is
slowly developing near 5S 91E (which is north of the west edge of the Western
Region). It is not expected to develop or move into our region over the next
couple of days, but there is a slight chance it will develop and move close to
our region from Monday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday: Very Low
Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Low

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99S INVEST 141130 1200 11.3S 86.6E SHEM 20 1007

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99S INVEST 141203 0600 13.8S 89.8E SHEM 25 1004


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:07 pm WST on Wednesday 3 December 2014
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 6 December 2014.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak low lies near 13.6S 89.4E, and its movement is near stationary. It is
forecast to move into the region overnight Wednesday or early Thursday morning.
The system will try to strengthen over the next 24 hours, but should weaken
late Thursday as it moves over cooler water and into a region of unfavourable
upper winds. There is a Low Cyclone risk Thursday and Friday. On Saturday the
system will be in a highly unfavourable environment.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low
Saturday: Very Low

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
89.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 91.0E, APPROXIMATELY 366 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031027Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW
AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

1000hPa at 00z.