WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 29, 2014 12:16 pm

The anticipated invest 95W is here with high expectations to turn into a bonifide TC as the models are bullish on this so post away to see if we are going to have another Bopha.

95W INVEST 141129 1800 2.0N 158.3E WPAC 15 1010

Image

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 29, 2014 3:27 pm

NWS GUAM:

THE LONGER RANGE PROBLEM IS THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF
POHNPEI...WHICH DEFINITELY SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FAIRLY WEAK AND BROAD AND MOVES IT
WESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF GUAM...BUT THE GFS DEVELOPS IT QUICKLY INTO
A TROPICAL STORM NEAR CHUUK ON MONDAY...THEN TAKES IT SOUTHWEST OF
GUAM AS A TYPHOON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING 35 KT WINDS TO
GUAM AS IT PASSES. THIS SEEMS WAY TOO FAST AND TOO FAR NORTH AND
AM LEANING HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION. SO FOR NOW THE MARIANAS
FORECAST IS BASED ON ECMWF WINDS...WHICH STAY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. BUT WITH THE MODELS IN SUCH GREAT DISAGREEMENT...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND TUESDAY...AND RESIDENTS OF THE
MARIANAS SHOULD STILL KEEP UP-TO-DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#3 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:01 pm

ECMWF has landfall over Northern Mindanao, later passing through the Visayas as a moderate or weak tropical storm. GFS and Parallel GFS are showing a recurve as a strong typhoon. USUALLY the ECMWF wins in forecast track while the latter both win by intensity.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#4 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:03 pm

95W INVEST 141130 0000 1.7N 158.9E WPAC 15 1010
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re:

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:17 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:ECMWF has landfall over Northern Mindanao, later passing through the Visayas as a moderate or weak tropical storm. GFS and Parallel GFS are showing a recurve as a strong typhoon. USUALLY the ECMWF wins in forecast track while the latter both win by intensity.


It will be interesting to see which model wins this battle of track and intensity.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#6 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:19 pm

I don't get why the GFS and GEM models are showing a recurve or northerly scenario that in fact, the ridge is strong enough to enforce a westerly track and that the storm is too far south to be affected hy the trough. I remember a pro met saying this during Typhoon Bopha, which is the best analog for this.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#7 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 29, 2014 9:25 pm

^It's too far south IMO for that track, there is also ridging to the north. Like what happened two years ago with Super Typhoon Bopha..
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#8 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:12 pm

This is also an opportunity to know if the new upgraded GFS (which is currently run in parallel) will be an improved version. It's interesting that the present GFS recurves the potential cyclone even before reaching 135E longitude, while the parallel run drives the system westward before finding a break in the ridge somewhere near 127E. If the first scenario busted, that would be a good reason to junk the present GFS model and favor the upgraded one.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re:

#9 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Nov 29, 2014 11:30 pm

spiral wrote:http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=soas&MODELL=gfs25&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pslv&HH=24&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

On the split EC at this point of time is the outliner both GFS models re-curve and the other models Gem, Nav follow the GFS track to a point.




You probably are right, there is a pretty good chance this one will recurve and miss the Philippines altogether.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#10 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 29, 2014 11:40 pm

I would lean on the EC, despite being an outlier.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

#11 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Nov 30, 2014 12:01 am

The next ECMWF run will be interesting....let's see if it will stick to its previous solution or cave in to the recurve scenario. Looks like all other models are hinting at a recurve now.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#12 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 30, 2014 12:04 am

Consolidating fast

Image
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#13 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:00 am

So the ECMWF stick with its gun and kept this potential cyclone towards Northern Mindanao. Hmmm who's gonna bust and who's going to be this year's best performing computer model? :lol:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re:

#14 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:02 am

spiral wrote:This system may well become of interest to the usa upsteam with the model intensity and re curve.


If GFS scenario pans out it will be like Nuri becoming a formidable typhoon but nothing under threat.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:29 am

JTWC now LOW CHANCE

No hints of a defined LLCC

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.5N 157.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
292241Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES NO EVIDENCE OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SHOWS DISORGANIZED, FRAGMENTED
BANDING. A 292301Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICTS MONSOON TROUGHING
WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TROUGH, WHICH IS FUELING THE CONVECTIVE BANDING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SLP NEAR 1004 TO 1006 MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT
SOURCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE DYNAMIC MODELS
ARE INDICATING RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:35 am

NWS GUAM:

THE BROAD CIRCULATION/DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR 2N157E WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS. MODELS STILL DIFFER QUITE A
BIT. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THE DISTURBANCE AND MOVING
IT IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. OTHER MODELS SEEM MORE REALISTIC BY
DEVELOPING IT MORE GRADUALLY TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST...AND SO ECMWF IS
THE MODEL OF CHOICE AT THIS TIME.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 5:27 am

The question is why the patterns are different on both GFS on recurving and ECMWF not doing that?
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#18 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Nov 30, 2014 5:47 am

I really want to hear what our promets have to say regarding this. 06Z NAVGEM does not show a recurve throughout the run. But both GFS and ECMWF are sticking to their guns. It looks like the models are also seeing a developing shortwave trough but each model has a different take on the trough's effect on the STR.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 7:37 am

12z Best Track.Gaining some latitude and pressure is down to 1004 mbs.

95W INVEST 141130 1200 2.7N 155.8E WPAC 20 1004
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#20 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 30, 2014 7:44 am

I'm thinking of a Fengshen 2008-like track a little more to the south, due to a tiny break in the ridging.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 24 guests