WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 7:53 am

Upgraded to Medium by JTWC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.5N 157.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.7N 155.8E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHUUK. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG MID-LEVEL
TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 301052Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECT
A WEAK, SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH 05 TO 10 KNOT WINDS AND SLP NEAR
1003 MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM
LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE INDICATING RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.


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#22 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:11 am

That was fast! wow
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#23 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:30 am

i agree with the potential upgrading to medium. continued organization and big burst of convection!
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#24 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:59 am

TXPQ28 KNES 300955
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 30/0832Z

C. 2.2N

D. 156.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...NOT QUITE GT 0.2 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF LT 1.0. MET AND
PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

strong vorticity...

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#25 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 30, 2014 9:33 am

JTWC just gave a 1.5 dvorak on this 3 minutes ago...TCFA alert may be coming soon...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 9:42 am

JMA getting close to upgrade to TD,12z update:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 03N 156E WEST SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#27 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 30, 2014 10:19 am

You can see how a strong kelvin wave spawned this strong disturbance near the equator...likely will develop more this month...

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 12:55 pm

Is organizing at a speedy rate.Saved image.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#29 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:04 pm

12z ECMWF joins GFS on the intensity front but still differs on the track as it now has a cat 1-2 Typhoon making landfall in the Philippines.See loop below graphic.

Image

Loop
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:27 pm

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

Things moving very fast.From Medium to High in only a few hours.

WTPN21 PGTW 301930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.5N 155.0E TO 6.6N 148.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 3.7N 154.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.7N
155.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 154.7E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301649Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THE
PREVIOUS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO A DEFINED
CENTER THAT IS SPINNING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE MOST RECENT
(300600Z) SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM NUKUORO ATOLL, CAROLINE IS.
REFLECT A WEAK, SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS AND SLP
OF 1004 MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM
LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND LOW (5 TO 10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE INDICATING RAPID
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AGENCIES MAY BE SLIGHTLY EXAGGERATED DUE TO
THE MORE INTENSE CIRCULATION IN THE UPPER AND MID-LEVELS THAN IS
BEING REPRESENTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS SUCH, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.


Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W=TCFA issued

#31 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 3:42 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
433 AM CHST MON DEC 1 2014

PMZ161-171-172-011200-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-
433 AM CHST MON DEC 1 2014

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK
NEAR 3N155E CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AFFECTING CHUUK TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND YAP AND KOROR LATER IN THE
WEEK.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE TO PASS SOUTH OF CHUUK TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS CHUUK STATE TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS CHUUK STATE.
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE INTENSIFIES AND
MOVES SOUTH OF WENO CHUUK.

COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET BY TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO FALL LATE TUESDAY.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT INTENSITY OF THE
DISTURBANCE BY THE TIME IT REACHES YAP. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE OUTLYING ISLANDS OF SATAWAL...WOLEAI AND FARAULEP IN
YAP STATE TUESDAY. ULITHI...FAIS...YAP AND NGULU WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE INCLEMENT WEATHER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. COMPUTER MODELS
SHOW MOST OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF KOROR
BUT THIS WOULD CHANGE IF THE DISTURBANCE TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK TOWARDS KOROR.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF
PLANNING ANY MARINE ACTIVITIES OR INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL. LISTEN FOR
UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

$$

WILLIAMS
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#32 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 30, 2014 5:18 pm

JTWC has dvorak up to 2.0 so an upgrade to a TD may be coming...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 5:40 pm

TPPN11 PGTW 302138

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (SSW OF POHNPEI)

B. 30/2032Z

C. 3.98N

D. 154.17E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES WITH DT WHILE MET IS
UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/1649Z 3.42N 154.90E TRMM


SCHALIN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#34 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 7:34 pm

00z Best Track:

95W INVEST 141201 0000 3.8N 154.0E WPAC 25 1004
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#35 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 30, 2014 7:36 pm

:uarrow: Probably they might change it to 22W TWENTYTWO, winds are 25 kts.
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Re:

#36 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 7:48 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote::uarrow: Probably they might change it to 22W TWENTYTWO, winds are 25 kts.


They just did.

22W TWENTYTWO
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#37 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 30, 2014 7:49 pm

Oh! That was quick. And its latitude went a tad lower
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:00 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 3.8N 154.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 3.8N 154.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 4.9N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 5.7N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 6.7N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 7.8N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.9N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 11.7N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.1N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 4.1N 153.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND
020300Z.//
NNNN

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Re: WPAC: 22W - Tropical Depression

#39 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:07 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
255 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN ELONGATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI AND PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 22W IS LOCATED IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EASTERLY OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST
TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND
REFLECTS AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING STR THROUGH TAU 72, AT WHICH TIME
TD 22W WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. EXPECT TD
22W TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THROUGH
TAU XX, WHERE A HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THIS
LEADS TO THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, WHICH IS
CONSERVATIVE AT TYPHOON STRENGTH DUE TO THE RELATIVELY FAST TRACK
SPEEDS, HOWEVER, A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM REACHES A COL AREA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ROUNDING THE STR AND RECURVING OR CONTINUING TO THE
WEST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE 5TH DAY FORECAST DUE
TO A LACK IN INITIAL DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, OVERALL, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT
GROUPING OF DYNAMIC AIDS THROUGH TAU 96.//
NNNN
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#40 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:09 pm

JTWC indeed released the warning quite early. Yeah, and they mentioned the uncertainty in the last TAU.

The main area of concern now is YAP, which was previously hit 10 years ago by STY Sudal.
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