WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

This looks none like a TD right now and more like a TS.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Every GFS run is getting a tiny bit to the west/south, rather closer to land.

[jaguarjace]

This looks none like a TD right now and more like a TS.

Agreed.

[cycloneye]

I am going ahead and say is a 60kt TS but I know there are constraints and they can't do big upgrades from TD to 60kts so they will upgrade to the 35kts or 40kts and then go from there.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Eye-like feature. Probs 40-70 kts

[dexterlabio]

I dare to say the genesis of this storm is crazier than Haiyan's, IMO. Twelve hours ago it wasn't even designated of having a low chance of development, then now it looks like a strong tropical storm.

It still has a long way to go and with the aid of a strong MJO pulse, maybe (just MAYBE) this one might give Haiyan a run for her money...


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[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest GFS has it closer to the PHL this time

[xtyphooncyclonex]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 DEC 2014 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 4:06:05 N Lon : 153:23:48 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.7 /1006.0mb/ 27.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.7 1.9 3.6

Center Temp : -52.9C Cloud Region Temp : -65.1C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 10.9 degrees

[cycloneye]

How strong and how oriented is the ridge right now? Is gaining some latitude and that is why I ask.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

How strong and how oriented is the ridge right now? Is gaining some latitude and that is why I ask.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Positions before recurve; westernmost position of storm by GFS.

Proof that the runs are more and more to the west.

[dexterlabio]

^We have to see that trend coming in the next runs and also it's the same to the recurve depicted in the previous runs...we will see... also to add, the Parallel GFS still has the recurve point a bit too close for comfort...

[cycloneye]

The 06z Best Track came out very early and still a TD but that could change.

22W TWENTYTWO 141201 0600 5.0N 152.3E WPAC 30 1000

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^We need to see that trend coming in the next runs and also it's the same to the recurve depicted in the previous runs...we will see... also to add, the Parallel GFS still has the recurve point a bit too close for comfort...

For the past several runs, it had been a trend since 2 or 3 days ago

The ECMWF meanwhile remains.

But however, it's still too early to tell.

[ManilaTC]

Its either a traditional straight-runner or a recurve.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Its either a traditional straight-runner or a recurve.

Indeed.

[dexterlabio]

Is it just me seeing that eye-like feature? I'm looking at the visible sat images.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

PRO METS!

[RL3AO]

Looks like an eyewall to me...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

22W TWENTYTWO 141201 0600 5.3N 152.1E WPAC 35 996