WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon
Moment when PAGASA, the official agency in the P.I says it made landfall
Wonder what tools they used...
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon
Intensity going down but still a cat 2 equivalent.
22W HAGUPIT 141206 1800 11.9N 125.4E WPAC 100 948
TPPN11 PGTW 061807
A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)
B. 06/1732Z
C. 11.93N
D. 125.40E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CENTER EMBEDDED
IN BLACK YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/1304Z 11.92N 125.82E MMHS
22W HAGUPIT 141206 1800 11.9N 125.4E WPAC 100 948
TPPN11 PGTW 061807
A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)
B. 06/1732Z
C. 11.93N
D. 125.40E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CENTER EMBEDDED
IN BLACK YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/1304Z 11.92N 125.82E MMHS
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Non-stop rains and increasingly strong winds here in Cebu City... I know we are too far but there have been some power outages starting.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon
euro6208 wrote:
Very heavy rain totals and surge...
They are underestimating the totals, especially to the south.. hmmmm
It's moving west-southwesterly now, and I don't think Lucena and Manila could get such amounts... And rainfall total of Cebu is probably much higher than the 24-hr projection.
For the past few forecasts, it has been increasingly unlikely that Hagupit would hit Metro Manila, mainly because of its WSW-ward motion.
They base their forecast and position/intensity from JTWC, yet they are confusing
JTWC has it overland Taft, and not Dolores.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:NDG wrote:ozonepete wrote:Some recent quotes from here:
Wobble watching, lol.
Most times I have agreed with you but this time I have to say you dropped the ball with this Typhoon
Yes, indeed. But he did quite well.
Hey NDG, yeah you said it. You can't win 'em all. My landfall was actually only 60 miles off but that's a lot here since we like to play a game of inches, lol. I also still think that JTWC did really well overall especially since yesterday when it counts, considering the circumstances. They did well on the strength when most people were still saying it would hit Tacloban as a cat 5 which I thought was irresponsible and never warranted by the data. I feel they get way too much flack; at least a lot more than they deserve.
And thanks, xtyphooncyclonex. I have a better scorecard than this, for sure.
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- beoumont
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon
Interesting how JTWC kept discounting a WSW dip, even though several progs kept insisting on it. Then, when on one run those progs got rid of the dip, JTWC basically said, "I told you so."
Until, of course, the eye took this WSW dip.
Until, of course, the eye took this WSW dip.
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List of 79 tropical cyclones intercepted by Richard Horodner:
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
- xtyphooncyclonex
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Inconsistency:
JMA had the landfall over SULAT/San Julian around 11PM
JTWC had the landfall over Taft/Sulat between 8PM-2AM
PAGASA had the landfall over DOLORES at 8PM
Sigh.
JMA had the landfall over SULAT/San Julian around 11PM
JTWC had the landfall over Taft/Sulat between 8PM-2AM
PAGASA had the landfall over DOLORES at 8PM
Sigh.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re:
ohno wrote:current eye location please..
S of W to Paranas, Samar
Or near Catbalogan, Samar
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Re:
ohno wrote:current eye location please..
I see someone says Catbalogan. Well I have a problem with locating it anyway. Everyone look at this. According to the data this recently passed north of Masbate since winds there went from NW to SW and they had no calm. The barometer reading is also suspiciously high. But according to this data the track would have to look something like what I drew here. That's a pretty big right turn...
OOPS I had the wrong picture. Here you go...
Last edited by ozonepete on Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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OFF TOPIC
But, quite important
Mactan Airport [in some sites] is mistaken for Masbate Airport, and actually those are the weather conditions over the former airport. I really noticed this error a few years ago. Winds here are coming from our NW/SW and we are facing south...
But, quite important
Mactan Airport [in some sites] is mistaken for Masbate Airport, and actually those are the weather conditions over the former airport. I really noticed this error a few years ago. Winds here are coming from our NW/SW and we are facing south...
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re:
ohno wrote:I have a feeling hagupit will exit south of mindoro
Or more likely near Coron, Palawan
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Re:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:OFF TOPIC
But, quite important
Mactan Airport [in some sites] is mistaken for Masbate Airport, and actually those are the weather conditions over the former airport. I really noticed this error a few years ago. Winds here are coming from our NW/SW and we are facing south...
Ok! Thanks pal. You solved the mystery. That data is definitely from Mactan, not Masbate. So it is all the way down by you at Cebu. Now it makes sense.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon
I woke up this morning in Manila next to a freezing cold breeze.
By the way, this storm is tracking painfully across Eastern Visayas. I wonder if the eye is already overwater this morning after it made landfall in Eastern Samar 11pm last night (Manila time). That's like almost 6 hours overland....
By the way, this storm is tracking painfully across Eastern Visayas. I wonder if the eye is already overwater this morning after it made landfall in Eastern Samar 11pm last night (Manila time). That's like almost 6 hours overland....
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Center is now actually west of Catbalogan City
Near 11.6N 124.? E
Near 11.6N 124.? E
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Rain is constantly getting heavier by the hour, so is the wind
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Hah 18zGFS basically spells the end of Hagupit.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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