#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 25, 2014 7:32 pm
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.6N 83.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 213 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBA, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
LLCC TO THE WEST. A 251539Z METOP-A SHOWS THE DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST, OVER SOUTHERN SRI LANKA. THIS
IS CONFIRMED BY UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM BEING IN HIGH
(20 TO 30 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WINDSHEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS
OFFSET, HOWEVER, BY
VERY GOOD POLEWARD AND EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.
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