ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[jlauderdal]

Invest 91L definitely looks like a Tropical Depression right now. Just an opinion

fortunately there is science involved in any upgrades but you are certainly entitled to your opinion

[jlauderdal]

slowly coming together... weak broad rotation evident nothing defined at all. wont be too much longer. should see a large burst of convection soon which maybe get the surface circ on its way.

the squadron is scheduled for tomorrow so maybe they will have something to look at

[lester]

lol the eye looks about 350 miles wide, this will be a monster

A disorganized monster of messy proportions, sure

[Evil Jeremy]

I think NHC goes up to 30 percent in the 2pm TWO. 91L has a lot of work to do though. Its slowly improving. The biggest task for the system right now is to consolidate.

[Sanibel]

i mentioned in.the previous thread the developing low just north of the ne tip of the yucatan is tthe plave to watch

I agree. I think the Caribbean wave took over and Barbara's remnants poofed.

[cycloneye]

No change.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS
GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Weatherboy1]

My semi-educated guess is that this thing ends up a low-end TS with an extremely sheared appearance before making a FL landfall somewhere in the Big Bend area. I wouldn't be surprised to see a tighter low center/LLC to pop up in the next 24-36 hours off the Yucatan peninsula ... but for almost all the convection to be displaced mostly to the E/NE, possibly by quite a bit. That would be a typical early-June storm set up. It's also possible nothing more than a disorganized low comes out of this. But if I were a betting man, I'd go with scenario #1.

[tropicwatch]

Those are some pretty wild model maps. Bunch of Lows to the South and Highs to the north. I don't recall ever seeing such an active map.

[GCANE]

1C warm core at about 9km with a strong convective cap

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 6_TANO.GIF


COC at 22N 90W

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031745.jpg

[NDG]

12z euro is a little stronger than previous runs, it hangs the low pressure just north of the Yucatan Peninsula through the next 48-72 hrs.

[cycloneye]

1C warm core at about 9km with a strong convective cap

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 6_TANO.GIF


COC at 22N 90W

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031745.jpg

18z Best Track a little bit north of that location.

AL, 91, 2013060318, , BEST, 0, 230N, 896W, 20, 1009, DB

[GCANE]

Best chance IMHO for this is DMAX just before sunrise in the morning when the upper troposphere is the coldest.

RAP is showing negative LI through out the area

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... 000_MB.png


Pretty good CAPE values then

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

[GCANE]

1C warm core at about 9km with a strong convective cap

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 6_TANO.GIF


COC at 22N 90W

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031745.jpg

18z Best Track a little bit north of that location.

AL, 91, 2013060318, , BEST, 0, 230N, 896W, 20, 1009, DB

Thanks Cycloneye.

Mid-level moisture seems to keep inching closer to it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Miami Storm Tracker]

As every has said so far just a very disorganized but large area of rain at this point. Most of the rain seems to be staying of the southwest coast, if this trends continues I don't see south east fl, at least getting 5 to 8 " of rain from this as has been estimated by the weather service.

[cycloneye]

Will see see a repeat but in a much less intensity version of last season Tropical Storm Debby?

[tropicwatch]

cyclone, I like that picture In that situation NW FL might actually get some rain.

[adam0983]

Based on the latest satellite presentation Invest 91L looks to be a tropical depression. The outflow looks great and the rain continues to build.

[cycloneye]

Based on the latest satellite presentation Invest 91L looks to be a tropical depression. The outflow looks great and the rain continues to build.

It has a mountain to climb to be a Tropical Depression.

[GCANE]

Latest Satellite Wind Analysis

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1306031800

[Evil Jeremy]

Based on the latest satellite presentation Invest 91L looks to be a tropical depression. The outflow looks great and the rain continues to build.

You keep saying that. This is far from a TD. there is barely any organization with 91L at the time.