WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

[cycloneye]

JTWC decreased the peak intensity at 03:00 UTC from 125kts to 115kts. Still HK on landfall track.

SUBJ: TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 010
WTPN32 PGTW 190300
1. TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.8N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.9N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.9N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.6N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.8N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.5N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.1N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 127.7E.
TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

[SouthDadeFish]

After seeing the microwave imagery and conventional satellite imagery, I feel pretty confident this is at least a category three system.



A truly beautiful storm, from a meteorological perspective.

[hurricanes1234]

After seeing the microwave imagery and conventional satellite imagery, I feel pretty confident this is at least a category three system.



A truly beautiful storm, from a meteorological perspective.

I was now coming here to post that. The eye has definitely cleared out, and I also feel that this is at least a Category 3.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

latest prognostic reasoning...

WDPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A WELL CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND A PERSISTENT FILLED-EYE FEATURE.
A 190122Z MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES ARE NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED UPON THE ESTABLISHED FILLED-EYE FEATURE
SEEN IN THE MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONINUES TO INDICATE A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER
THE LLCC, WHICH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
(05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE HAS FORMED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM (~27N) AND APPEARS TO
BE SUPPRESSING SOME OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH MAY BE A
FACTOR IN LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. TY 17W IS SLOWLY TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CHINA THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
PACIFIC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE BUILDING STR TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU
48, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ESTABLISHED ITSELF IN A MORE EAST-
WEST ORIENTATION, TURNING THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD AS TY
17W TRACKS THROUGH LUZON STRAIT. FAVORABLE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) AS WELL AS A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. HOWEVER, LAND
INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN AND NORTHERN LUZON WILL INTERRUPT THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW, LEADING TO A WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 48 AND INTO TAU
72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 17W IS EXPECTED TO PROCEED WESTWARD
AS THE STR WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED ITSELF IN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION.
LAND EFFECTS FROM TAIWAN AND COASTAL CHINA WILL KEEP TY 17W ON A
WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
36 REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST TRACK. JGSM, NAVGEM, AND EGRR INDICATE A MORE CONTINUOUS
NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN AND INTO
MAINLAND CHINA IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. ECMWF AND GFDN INDICATE A MORE
EQUATORWARD TRACK THAN THE MUTLI-MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW), WHILE GFS
AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE REMAIN CLOSE TO CONW. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THE FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO CONW,
BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER, IN ORDER TO DISCOUNT THE POLEWARD OUTLIERS AND
FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A PASSAGE
THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK AS THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND RE-ORIENT ITSELF.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

It stalled again. After a slow SW turn, it went wobbling to the NW then NE right now. Will this cause a delay on its approach towards Bashi Channel and Hongkong in the coming days?

I'm not sure why Usagi is moving slowly. If you look at the steering layer maps, the ridge to its north looks well-pronounced to steer it to a steady west-wnw direction.

[supercane4867]

Why lower the forecast intensity? It will reach 115kt before even get close to land

[Typhoon Hunter]

ADT fail



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[euro6208]

ADT fail

yeah that's what's keeping the numbers down...

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Weakening Flag : ON


KNES now up to 6.0

TXPQ27 KNES 190314
TCSWNP

A. 17W (USAGI)

B. 19/0232Z

C. 17.3N

D. 128.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...DT OF 6.0 BASED ON LIGHT GRAY EYE WITH A COLD MEDIUM GRAY
RING EMBEDDED IN WHITE. MET IS 5.0 BASED ON 24HR RAPID DEVELOPMENT.
PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

18/2342Z 16.8N 128.4E SSMI


...LIDDICK

[Meow]

I have written this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Usagi_(2013)

[euro6208]

strengthening continues...intensity looks to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 125 knots...a category 4 typhoon! JTWC might be conservative in increasing only to below 115 knots...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[Meow]

Now Usagi looks very impressive, with a compact CDO and a clear eye.

[Extratropical94]

JMA up to 95 knots, pressure at 925 mbars.
Forecast 105 kt winds (10-min) 910 mbars
Just for comparison, both Soulik and Utor had a minimum pressure of 925 mb and winds of 100 and 105 knots, respectively.

WTPQ21 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1319 USAGI (1319)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 17.5N 128.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 19.4N 125.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 210600UTC 20.8N 122.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 220600UTC 21.7N 118.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

[Meow]

JMA up to 95 knots, pressure at 925 mbars.
Forecast 105 kt winds (10-min) 910 mbars
Just for comparison, both Soulik and Utor had a minimum pressure of 925 mb and winds of 100 and 105 knots, respectively.

<Analyses at 19/06 UTC>
Scale Large

This is the answer.

[RL3AO]

I based the constraint off the six hour old data T, which probably wasn't the final T# at the time, so it probably got me a 6.5 instead of a 6...but oh well, I'm not getting paid for my Dvorak analysis.

['CaneFreak]

Usagi looks really good this morning. Nice eyewall structure, completely symmetrical CDO with a nice ring of -80C cloud tops that wrap completely around the center...**DROOLS**

[euro6208]

Best Track up to 120 knots, making Usagi the 3rd major typhoon of the season...Warning out soon...

17WUSAGI.120kts-933mb-176N-1280E

[Meow]

Best Track up to 120 knots, making Usagi the 3rd major typhoon of the season...Warning out soon...

17WUSAGI.120kts-933mb-176N-1280E

It was 100, 105, 115 then 120. They are not sure how strong Usagi is.

[dexterlabio]

Wow. I'll go ahead and say it will go super...and probably will be the strongest tropical cyclone of the season at this point, beating Utor.

I like the fact that all our official typhoons so far became major category four typhoons. Though it's gonna be nasty for those living in Taiwan, northern Luzon and Hongkong.

[Meow]

Usagi may become the first category 5 typhoon in 2013.



WTPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 128.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 128.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.7N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.7N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.8N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.6N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.3N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.4N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.1N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 127.6E.
TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 442 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z,
200300Z AND 200900Z.//
NNNN

[RL3AO]

Looks like a 7.0 now