ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

06z GFS...Landfall SFL
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

how many times have we been hit on model runs, wilma 2005 last time we were actually hit and that was from the west of all places..one of these days though.. BAM POW SMACKED...

I think it's a conspiracy to increase the browsing numbers on this board, now all those GOMER people will start hanging around...

[senorpepr]

Quick video update on Tropical Storms Dorian and Flossie, as well as other interests around the world. Plenty of uncertainty in the long-term forecast for Dorian... will it survive the trek across the Atlantic?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtZiX3SN7x8[/youtube]

[TheStormExpert]

What an interesting run the 6z GFS was! I just don't see it managing to hit Florida. The farthest west I could see it going is through the Bahamas like Irene of 2011 and try and go out to sea while maybe scraping the outer banks of NC. Just my forecast though...

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

10:45Z image from the FTP site: ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeseast/overview2/vis/

[GCANE]

Dramatic improvement on UL Outflow!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[tolakram]

FYI the floater may be able to use the HURRICANE sector images later today, hopefully. My live link is the extended sector view and that's the maximum magnification.

[Stormlover2012]

Why wouldn't this run be just as good as the others how many times have models runs show east coast and then boom it gets in the gom. Ike,Rita,Katrina, Gustavo, u can't trust model runs this for out.

[NDG]

The trend by the GFS is for a stronger Bermuda ridge at H50 for early next week and wanting to bridge westwards towards the Bahamas and FL for at least a quick momment, thus why the GFS has been trending westwards.
If you look at the models from a few days ago you can see that they were forecasting the Bermuda ridge to not be as strong and as westwards as they are not forecasting it to be from Sunday-Thursday time frame.
But what complicates things is that the pattern is going to be fairly flat across the northern US by the middle to late next week hard to tell exactly what Dorian will do by then. We many not exactly know until at least this weekend, until then I can see the GFS flip-flopping.

[tolakram]

Here is a blurry zoomed loop of Dorian.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 241930.GIF

from this page: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL042013

[GCANE]

Small cell, but firing right over the LLC

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 250500.jpg

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone has repositioned itself to the west of the LLC.

Dorian will be tracking into it.

Also a large slot of increasing tropopause height for the vortex column to expand vertically and spin up.

Just about the same conditions 36 hrs ago when it ramped up.

Looks like more strengthening.

[RL3AO]

6z GFS is faster with the shortwaves. Also, I notice there is a more zonal flow off the east coast on the 6z run, where on the 18z run you have a SW flow off the coast of NC/VA.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track remains at 50kts.

AL, 04, 2013072512, , BEST, 0, 157N, 352W, 50, 999, TS

[Blown Away]

RL3AO Great summary!!

Why wouldn't this run be just as good as the others how many times have models runs show east coast and then boom it gets in the gom. Ike,Rita,Katrina, Gustavo, u can't trust model runs this for out.

Being 200 hours out, you take from these GFS runs that Dorian will generally be in the area in 7-9 days and really not a big swing as from previous runs, it's just the recurve occurred a little farther W. A few degrees longitude east or west past 70W will be the difference between E coast runner and sneaking into the GOM.

[tolakram]

6z GFS, saved image. A weak low off Florida that dissipates in the next frame. You can track low pressure over Florida into the gulf, but nothing organized.

[Blown Away]

12z

[tolakram]

I think the 6Z is a broken run, so looking forward for the first real run with the new GFS.

Here is a few frames earlier, as posted above, with a 993 MB storm in the Bahamas.

[Frank2]

AFTER THAT...DORIAN SHOULD
APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED. THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. BASED ON THIS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH...

How do you spell fish (lol) - it's already at 16N so just a guess based on past storms the chance of a recurve is pretty high - the trough over the south is forecast to remain the next few days so that'll only increase the chance of a recurving system, Bermuda high or no...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

8 AM TWD.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 34.5W AT 25/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 610 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT
15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60
KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. PLEASE SEE THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 32W-36W.

[Blown Away]

Wow, look at the shear at 120 hours!!
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/13072 ... _ships.txt