WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

If Super Typhoon Haiyan were located off the US East Coast

A scene I hope never happens!

[CrazyC83]

Just made landfall on Cebu. My guess is that it is down to about 140 kt now (still exceptionally dangerous!!!!!!!).

[ozonepete]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt31W.html

ADT numbers going down. The raw T#s peaked at 7.6 prior to landfall (final T# peaked at 7.5). Now the raw T# is 5.9 (roughly 115 knots), with final T#s at 6.7 (or about 135 knots).

Yup. Rapid weakening. Goes to show how deadly it is for a TC when the eye goes over land, especially mountainous land, even for a short time. But what's amazing is that we are talking about a seriously weakened typhoon that has 130 knot winds! This is such an historic event. Can't believe what I've been seeing today.

[Bizzles]

Finally, they called everyone off the beach! A public service announcement (also in English) was just played over a broadspeaker at Boracay beach.

http://www.earthcam.com/world/philippines/boracay/

Still hear laughing over the cam...I can only imagine they have no idea that the brunt of this storm is heading their way...

[CrazyC83]

Even in a seriously weakened state, the storm surge could still be EXTREMELY dangerous - the size is so large it will keep pumping water at Category 5 levels.

[Bizzles]

Just lost the live feed off boracay...

...with people still on the beach

[Bizzles]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[dexterlabio]

There were foreigners who were able to get the last trip to Boracay yesterday before the coast guard suspended all ship operations. They should be staying inside their respective hotels right now, NOT in the small cottages near the shore.

[dexterlabio]

Haiyan is still fortunate, actually. The mountain ranges in Samar-Leyte area are not that high compared to the Sierra Madre mountain range of Luzon, which kills even the intense Cat5 typhoons. And it looks like the eye is now over water.

[dexterlabio]

I'm watching the live coverage of local media. It seems our S2K friends from Cebu and Leyte won't be posting here at the moment. Power supply in Samar, Leyte, Cebu and Bohol is shut. There's also a report of the Holy Infant Academy Gymnasium in Anda, Bohol collapsing. I sure do hope that gymnasium is not used as a shelter for earthquake victims. Will be waiting for more news updates.

[brunota2003]

TXPQ25 KNES 080310
TCSWNP

A. 31W (HAIYAN)

B. 08/0230Z

C. 11.2N

D. 123.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/8.0/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY WH FOR A DT=6.0
WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT MADE. MET IS 6.0 BASED ON RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS WHILE THE PT IS 6.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING
CHANGES IN FT TO 1.0 OVER 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY

[cycloneye]

I found this news on another forum.

Child dead, ma hurt as tornado hits Pikit
By John Unson (philstar.com) | Updated November 8, 2013 - 11:11am

NORTH COTABATO, Philippines -- A Moro mother named Bing Jamilon Ocuman and her one-year old son were killed when a tornado struck at about 5 p.m. Thursday a farming district in Pikit town in the province.

Ocuman’s injured daughter, Doreen, 8, was rushed to a hospital by responding barangay officials for medication.

The victims were inside one of five adjoining houses in Barangay Pamalian, a remote area in Pikit, which was hit by a tornado that came from the direction of the 220,000-hectare Liguasan Delta.

Responding workers of the Pikit social welfare office and members of the municipal police said a coconut tree uprooted by the strong tornado fell on the victims’ house, killing Ocuman and her son instantly.

“Five houses standing on the path of the tornado were destroyed,” said Tahira Kalantungan of the inter-agency municipal disaster risk reduction and management council.

[gatorcane]

00Z GFS running now. 48 hour position and intensity:

[Meow]

JMA still keeps it 125 knots.



TY 1330 (HAIYAN)
Issued at 03:40 UTC, 8 November 2013

<Analyses at 08/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N11°10'(11.2°)
E123°40'(123.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 895hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 65m/s(125kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 90m/s(175kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE440km(240NM)
SW280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 08/15 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°55'(11.9°)
E119°30'(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(120kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(170kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 09/03 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N12°50'(12.8°)
E115°30'(115.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 10/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E109°40'(109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 11/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°00'(18.0°)
E105°05'(105.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)

[ozonepete]

JMA still keeps it 125 knots.

http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/1658/4kvt.jpg

That's saying a lot since they are much more conservative than JTWC.

[Meow]

That's saying a lot since they are much more conservative than JTWC.

JMA’s upgrading to 125kt is earlier than JTWC’s upgrading to 170kt.

[brunota2003]

Using the ratio of 1.14, 125 knot 10 minute winds would come out to about 143 knot 1 minute winds.

[stormkite]

Pinhole eye.

[euro6208]

been busy all day...what is the landfall intensity?

[Alyono]

my estimate of the landfall intensity was 180 KT. Now, probably 135-140 KT. Likely will be down to 110 KT when it reaches the South China Sea