ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[gatorcane]

Yeah NHC didn't go with the GFS on this one with the long-range track.

Maybe they want to see a few runs to see if it is consistent with that or not.

In fact they didn't even mention the possibility of a west turn at all in the Bahamas...

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 082046
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 15 20130708
203800 1320N 05621W 4388 06890 0361 -120 -522 106018 023 021 000 00
203830 1318N 05619W 4517 06659 0345 -114 -442 118020 022 021 000 03
203900 1317N 05618W 4650 06433 0330 -105 -166 109023 024 /// /// 03
203930 1315N 05616W 4784 06224 0323 -102 -133 100030 030 /// /// 03
204000 1314N 05615W 4923 05999 0313 -083 -121 099031 031 /// /// 03
204030 1312N 05613W 5064 05776 0300 -071 -103 094034 035 /// /// 03
204100 1311N 05611W 5213 05548 0287 -065 -127 085029 034 /// /// 03
204130 1309N 05610W 5362 05327 0275 -049 -089 082030 031 /// /// 03
204200 1308N 05608W 5513 05106 0140 -037 -058 087032 033 /// /// 03
204230 1306N 05607W 5667 04889 0143 -026 -045 089032 033 /// /// 03
204300 1305N 05605W 5822 04672 0131 -010 -040 094035 036 /// /// 03
204330 1303N 05604W 5986 04433 0127 +007 -035 091033 035 /// /// 03
204400 1302N 05602W 6147 04251 0142 +022 -022 090029 032 /// /// 03
204430 1300N 05601W 6318 04022 0141 +036 -008 083023 026 /// /// 03
204500 1259N 05559W 6488 03803 0140 +047 +002 086023 024 /// /// 03
204530 1257N 05558W 6661 03587 0137 +061 +011 083026 029 /// /// 03
204600 1256N 05556W 6842 03361 0141 +071 +032 080031 033 /// /// 03
204630 1254N 05555W 7034 03134 0134 +089 +041 081033 034 /// /// 03
204700 1253N 05554W 7225 02903 0129 +101 +050 081034 035 /// /// 03
204730 1252N 05552W 7423 02678 0128 +114 +072 078033 034 /// /// 03
$$

Operational Altitude

[SFLcane]

Not much to say stacy has taken over the NHC apparently and isn't budging from his forecast. Hostile upper levels and land interaction are just few of the hurdles for this early tc.

Lets see what recon finds

[AtlanticWind]

Yeah NHC didn't go with the GFS on this one with the long-range track.

Maybe they want to see a few runs to see if it is consistent with that or not.

In fact they didn't even mention the possibility of a west turn at all in the Bahamas...

The Gfs slowdown and turn happens shortly after their forecast period so they wont mention that yet

[Weatherboy1]

NHC's talk of collapsing steering flow in the day 4-5 timeframe sure reminds me a lot of the Frances/Jeanne scenario...though they also don't seem to think the system will maintain much strength at that point due to shear. So we'll have to see what kind of shape Chantal is in after potentially battling both that and the mountains in DR/Cuba

[Stormlover2012]

Why change it when it's just one run by the gfs, they will wait till the runs tonight and tomorrow morning if they need to change path.

[Evil Jeremy]

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 082056
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 16 20130708
204800 1251N 05551W 7621 02455 0128 +127 +082 078032 033 /// /// 03
204830 1250N 05549W 7826 02237 0129 +144 +093 076031 032 /// /// 03
204900 1249N 05548W 8032 02015 0129 +156 +109 076031 032 026 000 00
204930 1248N 05546W 8242 01793 0136 +153 +134 070030 031 027 000 00
205000 1247N 05545W 8458 01571 0138 +159 +150 072025 029 027 000 00
205030 1246N 05543W 8679 01347 0136 +172 +157 066024 024 026 000 00
205100 1245N 05542W 8905 01143 0146 +186 +162 065026 028 026 000 00
205130 1244N 05540W 9133 00911 0139 +199 +175 070026 028 026 000 00
205200 1244N 05539W 9370 00685 0133 +210 +194 061023 025 027 000 00
205230 1243N 05538W 9598 00463 0121 +224 +215 048020 021 026 000 00
205300 1242N 05536W 9670 00408 0128 +230 +216 047020 021 025 001 00
205330 1241N 05535W 9642 00429 0127 +228 +214 050020 021 026 001 00
205400 1241N 05534W 9668 00407 0127 +231 +213 047021 022 024 000 00
205430 1240N 05533W 9672 00404 0127 +231 +213 048022 022 024 000 00
205500 1239N 05531W 9664 00411 0125 +231 +213 050021 022 024 000 00
205530 1238N 05530W 9665 00408 0125 +232 +215 046020 021 023 001 03
205600 1237N 05529W 9665 00408 0124 +230 +214 048024 025 029 001 00
205630 1236N 05528W 9668 00403 0126 +217 //// 050025 025 037 006 01
205700 1234N 05527W 9668 00401 0123 +224 +217 045025 027 031 004 00
205730 1233N 05526W 9664 00406 0122 +231 +212 044025 026 025 002 00
$$
;

[BUCMAN48]

StormLover-

Great point- they don't want to keep changing or it will kill there credibility. I think once they ger a good Euro initialization they will combine it with the GFS and try to plot a concenus if we will even still have a storm.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah NHC didn't go with the GFS on this one with the long-range track.

Maybe they want to see a few runs to see if it is consistent with that or not.

In fact they didn't even mention the possibility of a west turn at all in the Bahamas...

not the case the gfs turns west after the 5 day cone.. notice they only went as far as the steering collapsing.

[SouthFLTropics]

NHC's talk of collapsing steering flow in the day 4-5 timeframe sure reminds me a lot of the Frances/Jeanne scenario...though they also don't seem to think the system will maintain much strength at that point due to shear. So we'll have to see what kind of shape Chantal is in after potentially battling both that and the mountains in DR/Cuba

That was exactly my thoughts as well. While they don't indicate a "west" turn on the forecast points or even mention it in the discussion, the fact that they do mention the collapsing steering flow shows they are very aware of what the models are showing in the long term. The next few model runs will be very interesting. The bigger question right now is what the interaction with Hispaniola is going to be. South, through the middle, or North. Until that's cleared up we don't even know what we are going to be dealing with.

SFT

[floridasun78]

my weatherman say on wfor ch 4 in miami say CHANTAL look weaker and storm round center are weaking

[meriland23]

What is the accuracy of NHC's forecasts in the past in long range?

[TexasF6]

She just put up a hot tower over her COC, CDO trying to build, looking more organized, IMO

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 082106
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 17 20130708
205800 1232N 05525W 9666 00404 0122 +234 +208 049025 025 025 000 00
205830 1231N 05524W 9661 00409 0122 +229 +215 045022 025 024 000 00
205900 1229N 05523W 9664 00406 0121 +233 +209 046026 028 023 000 00
205930 1228N 05522W 9663 00404 0120 +230 +213 041026 028 021 000 00
210000 1227N 05521W 9670 00399 0120 +229 +212 046024 026 022 000 00
210030 1226N 05520W 9668 00401 0120 +230 +213 045025 026 024 000 00
210100 1224N 05519W 9668 00400 0120 +229 +213 042026 027 025 001 00
210130 1223N 05518W 9664 00404 0120 +224 +218 038023 025 025 002 01
210200 1222N 05517W 9666 00402 0120 +226 +219 037025 026 025 001 03
210230 1220N 05516W 9668 00400 0119 +230 +216 037024 026 021 000 00
210300 1219N 05515W 9667 00401 0119 +230 +212 041022 023 023 001 00
210330 1218N 05514W 9668 00399 0118 +234 +204 048023 023 022 001 00
210400 1217N 05513W 9662 00404 0118 +230 +203 050021 022 025 003 00
210430 1215N 05512W 9666 00399 0120 +217 +211 047021 021 030 007 00
210500 1214N 05511W 9661 00405 0120 +217 +215 035019 020 031 006 00
210530 1213N 05510W 9670 00396 0119 +222 +218 039020 021 037 013 03
210600 1212N 05509W 9664 00401 0120 +221 +216 050019 021 038 019 03
210630 1210N 05508W 9671 00396 0119 +223 +210 057025 027 033 013 00
210700 1209N 05507W 9662 00403 0118 +228 +209 055025 026 024 001 00
210730 1208N 05506W 9668 00399 0119 +230 +207 057026 027 023 002 00
$$
;

[Blown Away]

No mention of the W turn with many models, including their beloved TVCN consensus, showing it. The turn does occur day 5/6 which is just beyond 120 hours and that was the time the 12z GFS began to deepen Chantal again. Maybe they will make Chantal a remnant low at next advisory b/c of the forecasted strong shear??
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 082104
XXAA 58214 99135 70566 04236 99013 27439 05020 00119 26230 05523
92803 21004 06025 85534 18029 08030 70174 09856 08527 50588 06942
09536 40759 16396 07016 88999 77999
31313 09608 82034
61616 AF302 0103A CHANTAL OB 05
62626 MBL WND 05522 AEV 07520 DLM WND 08027 013376 WL150 05522 08
4 REL 1347N05658W 203453 SPG 1346N05667W 204535 =
XXBB 58218 99135 70566 04236 00013 27439 11936 21405 22850 18029
33794 14412 44700 09856 55677 07434 66576 00925 77545 04157 88538
04364 99528 04763 11519 05728 22508 05959 33494 07526 44471 09957
55465 09575 66460 09783 77393 16396 88376 19784
21212 00013 05020 11928 06025 22901 07023 33869 07532 44850 08030
55715 08524 66639 07538 77537 09525 88525 10530 99502 09536 11465
11521 22449 09022 33432 09025 44417 06520 55376 07014
31313 09608 82034
61616 AF302 0103A CHANTAL OB 05
62626 MBL WND 05522 AEV 07520 DLM WND 08027 013376 WL150 05522 08
4 REL 1347N05658W 203453 SPG 1346N05667W 204535 =
;

[chaser1]

She just put up a hot tower over her COC, CDO trying to build, looking more organized

....and so it goes....... the "bear watching" continues....

[Evil Jeremy]

[Aric Dunn]

She just put up a hot tower over her COC, CDO trying to build, looking more organized, IMO

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

yeah lets see if it expands. clearly the previous dry north side is now gaining convection. also looks to be north of the track a little.