WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

wow! looks like tacloban got the eyewall...

[Alyono]

wow! looks like tacloban got the eyewall...

the eyewall appears to have stayed south of Tacloban. However, they likely got cat 2/cat 3 conditions

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN)
WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS THE NEARLY ANNULAR EYEWALL HAS PERSISTED BUT
IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE EYE
ITSELF HAS ALSO DECREASED IN SIZE AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE
ISLANDS IN THE EASTERN PHILIPPINES. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED
FOR ALL AGENCIES TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF THE EYEWALL OBSERVED IN EIR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN DECREASED TO 160 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS
PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW TO THE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
INFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5 KNOTS),
ALLOWING GOOD VERTICAL TRANSPORT AND IS SUPPORTING THE RECENT
INTENSITY INCREASES OBSERVED IN EIR. STY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN
TAU 48 AND 72. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE PHILIPPINES AND A WEAKENING TREND IN THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL LEAD TO INTENSITIES DECREASING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE SLOW AT FIRST
AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL TO GOOD THROUGH TAU 48, BUT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM, THE WEAKENING TREND WILL
BE AMPLIFIED BY GREATER LAND INTERACTION AND LESS THAN FAVORABLE
SSTS NEAR THE COAST. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, AND
WILL CAUSE A MORE AGGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
NORTHWESTERLY INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM THROUGH TAU 96, SHIFTING TO A
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CHINA, AND MOVING TO
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE TRACK OVER LAND WILL
CAUSE A RAPID WEAKENING AS FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS INCREASE AND
GREATER INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IMPACTS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, WITH A COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU
120. BASED ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

Just made landfall on Iloilo. Most likely landfall intensity about 135-140 kt.

[Sanibel]

Landfalling Panay after overwater recovery.

[dexterlabio]

Which areas do you think got Cat5 conditions? I'm thinking that small portion on the southeastern tip of Eastern Samar before the eye made landfall in Ormoc-Tolosa area.

[Aric Dunn]

radar sat overlays clrealy had the city through the northern eyewall.

[euro6208]

i just hope jim edds and james reynolds are still alive...unfortunately many people might perish...

[Alyono]

the radar I saw had Tacloban just north by maybe a couple of miles. Maybe similar to Coral Gables in Andrew. Conditions may have been similar to those

[ozonepete]

radar sat overlays clrealy had the city through the northern eyewall.

Yes. I agree. Though it may not have been measured by any instruments, it looks pretty clear that the most extreme part of the northern eyewall went over Tacloban. I'm sure we'll see damage reports to confirm it.

[dexterlabio]

i just hope jim edds and james reynolds are still alive...unfortunately many people might perish...

Geez I don't want to make any assumptions like that.

[ozonepete]

the radar I saw had Tacloban just north by maybe a couple of miles. Maybe similar to Coral Gables in Andrew. Conditions may have been similar to those

You mean north of the eye by a couple of miles, right? The eyewall is many miles across - it is a donut shaped ring of winds - and areas from where the eyewall starts to 3 or 4 or even 10 miles outward from where the eyewall starts can all get the same wind speeds. Sure looked like Tacloban was in the eyewall to me.

[dexterlabio]

The national defense secretary of the Philippines is in Leyte right now. There are also news reporters sent in the area but since 10am they can't be contacted by phone or any means of communication. I assume power and communication lines are totally devastated.

[euro6208]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2573

Super Typhoon Haiyan: Strongest Landfalling Tropical Cyclone on Record

[Aric Dunn]

we need a world wide data network. . this is stupid.. we are better than this.

[Alyono]

radar sat overlays clrealy had the city through the northern eyewall.

Yes. I agree. Though it may not have been measured by any instruments, it looks pretty clear that the most extreme part of the northern eyewall went over Tacloban. I'm sure we'll see damage reports to confirm it.

looked to me on the radar posted several pages earlier that the city itself was literally a half mile or so outside of the eyewall. Maybe on the extreme outer edge

http://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/h ... 5428_o.jpg

strongest winds likely in Palo

[OzCycloneChaserTrav]

i just hope jim edds and james reynolds are still alive...unfortunately many people might perish...

Geez I don't want to make any assumptions like that.

No word yet from the boys. Most likely due to damaged networks. rhey will be okay though.

[PaulR]

I have a question about that: When storm surges are reported or predicted, do I assume correctly that the wave heights (if headed into the shore) would add on, at least in the waters along the shore? I can imagine some monster breakers too, in some cases...

All depends upon the direction of the storm and usually where the land will hold water against that direction. IMHO in this case the water has plenty of other paths to follow (path of least resistance) so to answer your question, no I wouldn't add wave height to the surge at all.

Um, perhaps I worded my question poorly, though your answer does address the issue of whether wave height influences the "storm surge" number.

Let me put it this way. Ignoring direct issues with wind, say I've taken refuge on the roof of a solid building that happens to be 18 feet high. The storm surge is 17 feet high. But the waves are described as 22 foot waves. I'm dead, no?

[brunota2003]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/

There is a good page regarding storm surge. Now has for your question, no the surge totals do not account for waves. So if you have a 17 ft surge and you are sitting ontop of your roof (assuming the building is even still standing), and an 8 ft wave comes along, it will wash over the peak of your roof, and very likely take you with it. This happened during Katrina, where you can watch the waves wash over the peaks of houses as the waves propagate through the areas (and thus, if anyone had escaped to the roof, they would have been washed away).

[stormkite]

been busy all day...what is the landfall intensity?

The local weather bureau makes estimates based on longer periods of time than others, such as the U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which said shortly before the typhoon made landfall that its maximum sustained winds were 314 kilometers per hour (195 mph), with gusts up to 379 kilometers per hour (235 mph).