ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Once again a tilted storm from SW (LLC) to NE (MLC) just like Chantal.

[ROCK]

12Z NAVGEM similar to the 12Z GFS but only goes out 180hrs.....treks to Hisp and Cuba...weakens it to almost nothing to only regenerate in the Yucatan Channel....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Lane]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... imageSize=


Not sure if this is the updated GFS does look updated.

[ROCK]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Not sure if this is the updated GFS does look updated.

thats it.....or here http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/

[Lane]

I doubt it is an eye wall but something is starting to appear in the last frames of visible sat.

[JSDS]

The squadron will have the first mission tentative for next Sunday morning.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 25 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-055

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES FOR TROPICAL
STORM DORIAN AT 28/1200Z NEAR 19.8N 57.0W.

that might be the longest lead time i have ever seen for the squadron

This may have something to do with it - if might be necessary so that they have enough people available.

http://m.wafb.com/ms/p/a3/57/view.m?id= ... news2=Main

[caribepr]

It appears the MLC and LLC are not joint now as the LLC is moving westward with little convection and almost exposed.With that decouple I would say the LLC is moving closer to 20 mph to the west now. That is also going to result in a model shift within the next two runs due to the return to westward motion from WNW.

And I was all excited about the WNW from earlier.

[tolakram]

17:15Z



Saved RGB Loop

[gatorcane]

Looks like the convection is expanding again. IR Floater loop below which shows this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[tailgater]

[canes04]

As Chaser mentioned earlier, Dorian is feeling the ridge and is making the turn to the west.
I believe he will mix out the dry air and recover tonight. We may have a cat1 this time tomorrow!

[Riptide]

12z GFS Ensembles are in good agreement of a track north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

[Alyono]

As Chaser mentioned earlier, Dorian is feeling the ridge and is making the turn to the west.
I believe he will mix out the dry air and recover tonight. We may have a cat1 this time tomorrow!

explain how it will overcome the 20 kts of shear it is currently experiencing. You do not get decoupling without shear

[canes04]

Alyono,

Just giving my opinion. As a pro met you know things change on the fly in the tropics.

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS Ensembles are in good agreement of a track north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

[img]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2013072512/gfs-ens_lowlocs_atltropics_16.png[/ig]

unfortunately there are to many variables atm to give a accuracy worth anything. all we can say is a general west to wnw track for the next next 5 days.. also note the angle that it will be approaching the greater Antilles is such that and wobble to the right would take it clear of them.

[ninel conde]

joe bastardi disagrees with the new GFS

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

Well I hear we have a new super computer running the GFS. Response: Take Dorian into Caribbean islands and kill it. I doubt that

[northjaxpro]

That particular 12Z GFS run also shows a clear and distinct weakness and the tropical cyclone turning north just east of the Bahamas. Still a long way out, so expect more changes.

But, remember the GFS tendency of breaking down ridges too quickly. Just a quick mention about that.

[Weatherboy1]

Pretty notable shift west in the latest global model cycle. CMC, UKMET, GFS all "wind-shield-wipering" away from the recurve scenario. Still too early to latch on to any particular solution or trend, but if this persists for another couple of model cycles, we may have more to worry about in the islands and/or FL. We shall see ...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_04.gif

[TheStormExpert]

According to this graphic shear doesn't look all that bad.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track down to 45kts.

AL, 04, 2013072518, , BEST, 0, 164N, 370W, 45, 1002, TS