ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

Latest Satellite Wind Analysis

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1306031800

GCANE, is that in the low or mid level winds?

[Dean4Storms]

12z euro is a little stronger than previous runs, it hangs the low pressure just north of the Yucatan Peninsula through the next 48-72 hrs.

Takes it into the Big Bend area of Florida near Cedar Key.


12z Canadian has a 70kt Hurricane into Appalachicola.

[JonathanBelles]

"Tropical Funnel cloud spotted to the Northwest of Green Canyon 52." --Spotter Network

That is SW of Houma, LA. This is probably the first of many from NOLA east and south.

[JonathanBelles]

Latest Satellite Wind Analysis

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1306031800

This seems a little better than reality. This certainly isn't closed off.

[tolakram]

This seems a little better than reality. This certainly isn't closed off.

If there is a closed low it looks to be over land.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... te=ir1.pal

So many swirls, and the feature I note below could be the MLC.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS and Euro agree very well on 1004mb low moving inland north of Tampa (between Tampa and Apalachicola) Thursday night. May be a sheared TD and/or disorganized TS with most rain east of the track over the Peninsula.

[tolakram]

Longer loop, speed up for full effect.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... te=ir1.pal

Convection looks to be fading fast so maybe we'll get a nice look underneath before nightfall.

[Aric Dunn]

over land aboit to exit off tbe yucatan penisUla looks to be a fairly well defined circ that has begun to develop.

[JonathanBelles]

Latest Ruskin discussion...

LOWER LCLS CAN BE EXPECTED THANKS TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS...WITH THE 12Z GFS FEATURING AROUND A 700 FT LCL FOR TPA...A
500 FT LCL AT SRQ...A 600 FT LCL AT LAL...AND A 700-800 FT LCL AT
FMY AROUND 18Z THURSDAY...WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES. WITH THE
LOW FORECAST TO PASS WEST OF THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL JET ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACCESSIBLE TO POTENTIAL TORNADIC
CONVECTION. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH AN
INCREASING 0-1 KM HELICITY TREND STARTING AT 00Z THURSDAY...WITH
VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 100-200 M2/S2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EASILY PEAKING ABOVE
20-25 KNOTS ALSO RAISES A LARGE RED FLAG FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE RESPECTABLE.

[chaser1]

Have been a bit out of the loop for a couple days however as I see 91L, I am just all too impressed with present Satellite presentation. Looking at several resolutions and upper level shear remains fairly evident. I am just not sold on this system ever getting named.

[SeminoleWind]

Based on the latest satellite presentation Invest 91L looks to be a tropical depression. The outflow looks great and the rain continues to build.

Long way to go before and IF it can get its act together to be Classified as a T.D.

[Riptide]

Based on the latest satellite presentation Invest 91L looks to be a tropical depression. The outflow looks great and the rain continues to build.

Long way to go before and IF it can get its act together to be Classified as a T.D.

You might be surprised at how fast it will organize if it manages to escape the Yucatan peninsula. I see a great outflow on all quadrants, granted the low pressure is very broad.

[GCANE]

Latest Satellite Wind Analysis

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1306031800

GCANE, is that in the low or mid level winds?

Its not surface, more about 850 to 700mb level.

[Hurricane Andrew]

CMC [GGEM], GFS, and EURO all came in stronger than yesterday's 12z. Interesting...

CMC brings a 989 into FL, I doubt that.

[jlauderdal]

12Z GFS and Euro agree very well on 1004mb low moving inland north of Tampa (between Tampa and Apalachicola) Thursday night. May be a sheared TD and/or disorganized TS with most rain east of the track over the Peninsula.

euro has been consistent for a couple of days now and finally gfs comes on board, we have a solution for this one..now we can see how efficient a rain maker it can be and a few weak tornados

[GCANE]

200mb PV creeping up over it. Going to put a lid on it for a while.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[ronjon]

Here's the 12z CMC for entertainment purposes - have to admit - its been sticking with its strong solution.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013060312/gem_mslp_wind_watl.html

[Hurricane Andrew]

What happened to the floater?

[MiamiensisWx]

12z euro is a little stronger than previous runs, it hangs the low pressure just north of the Yucatan Peninsula through the next 48-72 hrs.

Takes it into the Big Bend area of Florida near Cedar Key.

12z Canadian has a 70kt Hurricane into Appalachicola.

The 12Z ECMWF is actually 20 kt stronger than in the 00Z run. It shows 850-mb winds of 35 m/s at the time of landfall in four days near Cedar Key. This translates to 61 kt / 70 mph at the surface. So the ECMWF now shows a near-hurricane hit, albeit with most winds displaced well to the east of the center. Even strong tropical storms can be somewhat disorganized, but the trough seems to impart divergence which is co-located with the low-level center, thereby minimizing the negative impacts of the shear.

12Z ECMWF at 96 hours

This means very high tides along the west coast of FL due to the large wind field and the angle of approach. Tides could easily be 5-6' above mean sea level from the Everglades National Park to north of Tarpon Springs--according to the track shown by the ECMWF. No one should be complacent; even a large but disorganized TS produced quite a bit of beach erosion and flooding on the Gulf Coast.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Miami, do you have a link to that? Sure didn't look that strong to me.